Florida Derby

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by pandy

I picked Mississippi. 9-8-6-7.

If played as a super box, you win.

[Robert Fischer]

Hot pace.
Nice run by Audible.

Hofburg ran to his ability, but he's not a superstar. He kind of needed Audible to run a stinker.

have to watch the replay to see if the 1 changed leads, and whether the 4 is worth an upgrade after both blazed through the first turn.

Catholic Boy was really underlayed, but he seemed to run to form. Have to re-watch for any trouble.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

dime supers
1st+2nd = 6,7/6,7/all/all =$8.40
1st+3rd = 6,7/all/6,7/all
1st+4th = 6,7/all/all/6,7
2nd+3rd = all/6,7/6,7/all
2nd+4th = all/6,7/all/6,7 ($46.30
3rd+4th = all/all/6,7/6,7
($8.40 x 6) = $50.40

next, some suitable wagers for both keys;
dime super = 469/469/all/*7* = $3.60
dime super = *67*/4679/all/*67* = $2.40
dime super = 18/679/679/all = $7.20 ($46.30
50cent tri = 469/469/*7* = $3
50cent tri box = [45679] = $30

$1 exacta = ALL/*7*= $7 ($ 25.40
$1 exacta = 146789/*7* =$5 ($25.40
$2 exacta = *6/7* = $2
$2 exacta = *2*/1456789 =$12
$20 win on *#7* HOFBURG = $20
$2 exacta box = 7/9 = $4


TOTAL for all wagers = $146.60

($143.30) -$3.30

[zico20]

You could have given me 99-1 odds on the and after the first quarter and I would not have taken it. Not sure what they were thinking blazing that fast on a slow track.

[GMB@BP]

Really surprised how poor Catholic Boy ran, that Sam Davis races was really bad in hindsight I suppose.

Cant knock the winner at all, it was a fast pace but at least he finished off it, not like he had to grind out some tired horses. I think the runner up is usable next out as well, he will suck some money but the talent may be real.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by zico20

You could have given me 99-1 odds on the and after the first quarter and I would not have taken it. Not sure what they were thinking blazing that fast on a slow track.

that was crazy by the should of just let the go; burned themselves up

[Immortal6]

Originally Posted by Afleet

that was crazy by the should of just let the go; burned themselves up

With Promised Fullfilled having stamped his ticket to the derby I wonder if Romans wanted to use this as a glorified workout.... after setting fractions like he did today going 23.4 and 47 in the Derby will be a cakewalk.

[JustRalph]

The and damn sure weren't trying to win today


The 1st and 2nd place horses looked like Men among Boys......

[Robert Fischer]

That was an insane pace.

Have to give Pletcher credit. He trained Audible the way he thought the horse was comfortable, and he kept up a confident face in all the pre-race hoopla.

A lesser trainer would have caved, and made an effort to work Audible faster in the mornings, and/or work him against some hammer-locked scrubs for the sake of appearances.

Sure fooled me. I see a horse consistently 'losing' workouts, and I doubt that he's a Derby contender. Horse looked good on track, and Johnny V. did a nice pre-race warm up.

He got a nice setup today, but ran a good race. Looks pretty much as good as all but maybe Justify at this stage.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I suck so bad lately, definitely don't bet whomever I pick.

With that said, I like the Strike Power

"hard-used, rebid, stopped" short comments. Insane.

[cj]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

The and damn sure weren't trying to win today


The 1st and 2nd place horses looked like Men among Boys......

Total pace collapse. I figured the first 1/4 was another timing error at GP when I saw it but it was correct. Those guys were insane going that fast.

[pandy]

I can't remember ever seeing a first quarter that fast in a 9 furlong race. Certainly not at a major racetrack.

[lamboguy]

i had all but the last leg in the rainbow yesterday, i just didn't like AUDIBLE. i still don't care for the horse, so he will probably win in Kentucky.

[Tom]

I am confidently throwing Audible out of the mix at the Derby.
Pletcher is the Mayor of Miami, but he's the Loser of Louisville.

He lucked in to that win last year.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by zico20

Not sure what they were thinking blazing that fast on a slow track.

That happens sometimes when two speed horses faced each other last time and one tried rating but it didn't work. The connections will say to themselves, "Sitting off that other horses didn't work last time. So let's trying gunning to the lead and make him sit off us this time".

From the rail, I thought it was almost certain Strike Power would "go" since rating didn't work last time. The crazy ride was on Promises Fulfilled. Maybe that horse is just absolutely unrateable, but it didn't seem like Albarado tried very hard. He doomed them both.

This is the flip side of "why do they always choke?"

Sometime they choke because they don't want to blow a check finishing last and next to last with two quality horses by being too aggressive.

[lefty359]

I though Audible ran a great race but won't make any Derby decisions till I see he pp's and evaluate ea. horse. Especially the 3rd fraction.