Handicapping Saratoga 101, don’t bother

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

Absolutely love Saratoga.

Tote board player here. No handicapping.

Will not go if t-storms and heavy scratches.

One of my favorite plays:

<ML at 10 MTP and > ML at PT produces some great prices. I like to box 4 similar, in a TRI.

Since I think everyone who has handicapped for more than a week notices early betdowns, I'm skeptical you're blindly cleaning up at Saratoga with a Handicapping 101 tactic.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Interesting play. So a horse must be below ML odds at the 10MTP, and above ML at PT, correct? How do you differentiate the best plays using my example below:
Horse ---ML ------10MTP 0dds-------PT odds ---------Total Range
A .......5-1.........4-1 (-20%)..........7-1 (+40%).......3 (60%)
B .......8-1.........5-1 (-37%).........10-1 (+25%).......5 (62.5%)
C.......10-1........8-1 (-25%)..........15-1 (+50%).......7 (70%)
D....... 7/2.........5/2 (-28%)..........4-1 (+14%).......1.5 (42%)
E........20-1 .......8-1 (-60%)..........35-1 (+75%)........23 (115%)

I included the total range in betting in relation to the ML; not sure if that's important. Would the above be a 3 or 4 horse box in your Trifecta? If so, which ones, if you don't mind sharing?

I do something similar, in that I look at the pct. below ML at opening(25-30 MTP), and look for EM$ at >=50% below the ML. My best plays have always drifted >ML but occasionally staying below ML has won as well. In the case above, I've seen Horse E open at 8/5 or 2-1 at the open and gradually drift up to >20-1. With that big a drop, I take a hard look at PP's to see if his ML may be off, or there's a big class drop that somehow didn't get factored into his ML.
A bad running line in last several races will get my attention if the 50% threshold is reached. And before someone asks, I do look at all the pools to see if there's any follow through.

I would go with B, C and E because of the higher odds. It’s a toss-up between the other two just to fill a four horse box.

Seldom do I get five contenders unless there are a lot of scratches which kills the system. Like I said I try to avoid those days.

I agree best plays are those drifting >ML and I will also include one that may be just below ML to fill out a ticket.

I usually toss a 50-1 ML but do worry about it during the race.

[GMB@BP]

How do you come up with the 5 in the Bowling Green?

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

How do you come up with the 5 in the Bowling Green?

No speed in the race. Glorious empire was the only starter with a Early Timeform Pace figure (107) larger than his late one(83).

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Redboard

No speed in the race. Glorious empire was the only starter with a Early Timeform Pace figure (107) larger than his late one(83).

sure, yea, but the horse kinda sucks. crappy horses with front end speed dont steal turf races, and there was other speed in the race (hi happy, manitoulin).

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

sure, yea, but the horse kinda sucks. crappy horses with front end speed dont steal turf races, and there was other speed in the race (hi happy, manitoulin).

I agree with you, especially on soft turf. Look at Glorious Empire's last attempt at the SPA 9/4/17 on yielding, dead last. The only hint that I can see is the different jockey.

I'll give you Hi Happy (88->92) who really came up small. He just faded for no reason and finished up the track. But not Manitoulin (59->108).

Not that I cashed on this race. I had Bigger Picture.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I agree with you, especially on soft turf. Look at Glorious Empire's last attempt at the SPA 9/4/17 on yielding, dead last. The only hint that I can see is the different jockey.

I'll give you Hi Happy (88->92) who really came up small. He just faded for no reason and finished up the track. But not Manitoulin (59->108).

Not that I cashed on this race. I had Bigger Picture.

It just goes with the idea of this thread, at least for me, that other than Chad Brown I feel like turf racing especially is throwing darts at Sar.

Its cool I just needed the 10 to finish first or second in the last, he finished third, its only money I keep telling myself.