HONG KONG PRE-Race TOTE Analysis

[Nitro]

I’ve been tracking the overall results when playing Dutch Win bets using 3 Top selections. These picks are generated by an analysis of the Hong Kong tote board BEFORE the actual betting begins. Many will immediately recognize that there’s a contradiction here. How can you monitor betting when the betting hasn’t even started?

Well this pleasant little discovery occurred only after I announced that I wouldn’t be posting LIVE selections for HK any longer. This decision was made because I found that my concentration level during the wee hours of the morning sometimes compromise my abilities to focus on the live tote action and making bets in a comfortable time frame.

But, I still wanted to participate by posting HK selections and I began looking closer at all of pre-race tote details that the HK Jockey Club provides. By creating a static tote analysis and interposing specific additional information found on the HKJC Web site, I’m able to come up with an array of good possibilities. Of course, it’s NOT as accurate as the LIVE tote analysis in conjunction with the pre-race physicality information that’s provided, but so far the results have been very promising.
The chart below covers the last 7 race days in HK and 63 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 54.2 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $4,710 Bet w/a Net Profit of $1,750 and Profit margin of 37%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 54% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 63 so far).
5) Considering the 54% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
........In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 selections with the final odds. Using the "early" betting lines produced similar results, which means that bets can be made before the racing even starts. It’s a FIRST (that I’m aware of) when your only info source is a tote analysis.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HP	9/21	1800 T	43	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	9/28	1650 T	49	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	10/5	1800 T	52	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	10/2	1650 T	98	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646	139 	22%

Dutching summary race day details:

Happy Valley 10/12 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=133952

Sha Tin 10/8 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...2&page=2&pp=15

Happy Valley 10/5 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=133815&page=2

Sha Tin 10/8 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=133745

Happy Valley 9/28 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=133693

Sha Tin 9/25 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=133645&page=2

Happy Valley 9/21 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=133557&page=2

[AltonKelsey]

Small sample, but congrats, you're on your way to making millions .

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Small sample, but congrats, you're on your way to making millions .

Under normal circumstances I would tend to agree with you about the sample size. Fortunately, I’ve been playing HK for the last 3 years and I possess the tote analysis for every race day during that period. It’s one of the reasons I was able to develop the “static” tote analysis. That, plus the updated information the HKJC provides each race day are what I believe the key elements.

As far as “making millions” goes the only place where that’s possible is in Hong Kong.
In fact, I always get a kick out of seeing the following statement on the HK site:

If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, all winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[AltonKelsey]

Not sure what you're doing to come up with the horses to dutch.

I'm more than familiar with analyzing the exotic. Been doing if for longer than many here have been alive.

If your roi claims are even close to reality, a million in profit is trivial to achieve.

Show me the money

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’ve been tracking the overall results when playing Dutch Win bets using 3 Top selections. These picks are generated by an analysis of the Hong Kong tote board BEFORE the actual betting begins. Many will immediately recognize that there’s a contradiction here. How can you monitor betting when the betting hasn’t even started?

Well this pleasant little discovery occurred only after I announced that I wouldn’t be posting LIVE selections for HK any longer. This decision was made because I found that my concentration level during the wee hours of the morning sometimes compromise my abilities to focus on the live tote action and making bets in a comfortable time frame.

But, I still wanted to participate by posting HK selections and I began looking closer at all of pre-race tote details that the HK Jockey Club provides. By creating a static tote analysis and interposing specific additional information found on the HKJC Web site, I’m able to come up with an array of good possibilities. Of course, it’s NOT as accurate as the LIVE tote analysis in conjunction with the pre-race physicality information that’s provided, but so far the results have been very promising.
The chart below covers the last 7 race days in HK and 63 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 54.2 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $4,710 Bet w/a Net Profit of $1,750 and Profit margin of 37%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 54% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 63 so far).
5) Considering the 54% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
........In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 selections with the final odds. Using the "early" betting lines produced similar results, which means that bets can be made before the racing even starts. It’s a FIRST (that I’m aware of) when your only info source is a tote analysis.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HP	9/21	1800 T	43	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	9/28	1650 T	49	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	10/5	1800 T	52	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HP	10/2	1650 T	98	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646	139 	22%

Dutching summary race day details:

Nick, Do you mean you dutch "your top 3" selections using your brand of tote analysis? And it may or may not include some of public favorites in your three? I'm trying to improve my tote analysis as well, but it needs a ton of work. What site do you play Hong Kong on? TIA

[Winger]

How do you determine the amount you are going to bet total? I understand how you distribute it, but where you came up with the actual number to bet total.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Nick, Do you mean you dutch "your top 3" selections using your brand of tote analysis? And it may or may not include some of public favorites in your three? I'm trying to improve my tote analysis as well, but it needs a ton of work. What site do you play Hong Kong on? TIA

Absolutely! As I mentioned I provide my early picks with what I call a "static" tote analysis, but personally I always the Live tote in conjunction with the pre-race physicality reports. This method performing about 15% better than the static version.

If you have the time to review some of the links which illustrate each of the last 7 days you'll notice that its always based upon what the odds of the 3 top picks provide in terms of a Profit Margin %. The Dutch calculator works great for this purpose. I play using Xpressbet and TVG.

[FakeNameChanged]

Nick, the two links you sent via PM were dead ends, 404's. I'll check some of these.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Winger

How do you determine the amount you are going to bet total? I understand how you distribute it, but where you came up with the actual number to bet total.

As I mentioned, if you visit some of the more recent of the HK threads from the links I posted above, you’ll find the Dutching calculator I use. Once you enter the odds of the 3 selections (in the correct order), the calculator provides the basic individual bets necessary and the total bet involved. Of course the basic bet can be divided (to reduce the O.A. bet) or multiplied (to increase the O.A. bet).

[FakeNameChanged]

So you grade your top picks; I see 5 in the examples, but you play(dutch) the top 3 according to your tote analysis rules? What do you do with the #4 and #5 plays? I know when I'm focusing on tote boards, I often have two that look like very live plays in the exactas and doubles. It always looks more enticing to me when none of the top three ML's are two of my plays.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

So you grade your top picks; I see 5 in the examples, but you play(dutch) the top 3 according to your tote analysis rules? What do you do with the #4 and #5 plays? I know when I'm focusing on tote boards, I often have two that look like very live plays in the exactas and doubles. It always looks more enticing to me when none of the top three ML's are two of my plays.

Based on the “static” tote analysis I derive the top (6) selections. Only the top (3) are the designated choices for Dutching purposes. The remaining can be used in both Quinella and Triple combinations. When I was posting Live selections, my Top (2) picks are generally used as Keys and I just continued to use that same format for posting the early picks.

The Live tote analysis I use doesn’t rely on M/L odds at all. It only uses the money entering each of the mutual pools as well as the Exacta pool in the States or the Quinella pool in Hong Kong. The more betting entries there are in a race, the more discriminatory the analysis becomes, which is exactly what we’re looking for. The more separation there is in each of the betting patterns the easier the final selection process becomes.

[formula_2002]

Nitro, what is your total booking percentage for each race. that is sum 1/(ODDS+1) for each horse?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Nitro, what is your total booking percentage for each race. that is sum 1/(ODDS+1) for each horse?

I’m not sure I understand the significance of “booking percentage”. When Dutching the only thing I believe is important is the potential Profit % when the odds of all 3 selections are combined. As long as that figure is higher then the hit frequency % a profit is an absolute result.
These are first {3) races from the last day at HK:

HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 10/12
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=133952

R#1 - 1-6 W/ 7-5-4-3.............. Results: 1 -6-5-12 (Top choice – Quin/Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.2/1 ) – 7 ( 14/1 ) - $100.00 – $100.00
#1 – 1/2.3+1 = 0.30……..#6 – 1/7.2+1 = 0.12………..#7 – 1/14+1 = 0.07

R#2 - 3-1 W/ 5-6-8-2................... Results: 5 -6-4-7 (3rd choice)
Dutch – 3 ( 10/1 ) – 1 ( 7.2/1 ) – 5 ( 2.9/1 ) - $96.00 – $196.00
#3 – 1/10+1= 0.09…….#1 = 1/7.2+1 = 0.12……….#5 – 1/2.9+1 = 0.29

R#3 - 2-5 W/ 4-6-8....... Results: 2-5-7-6 (Top choice – Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) –5 ( 5.6/1 ) –4 ( 4.9/1 ) - $64.00 – $260.00
#2 – 1/2.8+1 = 0.26……#5 – 1/5.6+1 = 0.18……..#4 – 1/4.9+1 = 0.17

Maybe you could explain why you feel these “booking % “ numbers are important?
As far as I’m concerned I’m up $260 after 3 races.

[ultracapper]

That's the only way to play a dutch. You must designate a desired profit and then bet an amount in relation to the odds. I see guys dutching all the time where they designate one horse as their profit horse and the other as a backup bet, to just get their money back if it beats their chosen profit horse. They're just throwing winners away when they hit the "other" horse.

The place pool is your backup bet. It's the only use for the place pool. The return in the place pool in comparison to the win pool is just too depressed to be used as a profit pool. The win pool is the profit pool, so therefore, whether dutching 2 or even 4 horses, a desired profit must be designated, and then spread the money accordingly.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Based on the “static” tote analysis I derive the top (6) selections. Only the top (3) are the designated choices for Dutching purposes. The remaining can be used in both Quinella and Triple combinations. When I was posting Live selections, my Top (2) picks are generally used as Keys and I just continued to use that same format for posting the early picks.

The Live tote analysis I use doesn’t rely on M/L odds at all. It only uses the money entering each of the mutual pools as well as the Exacta pool in the States or the Quinella pool in Hong Kong. The more betting entries there are in a race, the more discriminatory the analysis becomes, which is exactly what we’re looking for. The more separation there is in each of the betting patterns the easier the final selection process becomes.

You and I ride each other pretty hard, but it's not because I don't appreciate the way you play your game. I fully understand the method of your madness, so, having said that, I hope you'll consider this a serious question.

Being that the general premise of your method is that it gives you a view into the insider's heads, how does including pools filled with North American bets on Hong Kong races give you that?

Not being a doubter, just wondering.