HONG KONG PRE-Race TOTE Analysis

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Update:

The chart below covers the last 10 race days in HK and ALL 92 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 52 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,809 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,371 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 52% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

 
TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L	T-BET$	T-PRF$	T-PRF%
HV	9/21	1800 T	43 	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 			310 	66 	21%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57 	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 			872 	286 	33%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	9/28	1650 T	49 	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 			705 	294 	42%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84 	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)	933 	360 	39%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/5	1800 T	52 	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 			585 	286 	49%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64 	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 			659 	319 	48%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/12	1650 T	98 	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 			646 	139 	22%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60 	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 	952 	636 	67%
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/19	1000 T	51 	(51)	1200 T	51	(51)	1200 T	83	(83)	1200 T	71	204 	1650 T	34	(34)	1650 T	48	(48)	1200 T	75	61 	1200 T	30	(30)	 			 			 			443 	(32)	(-7%)
																																					
ST	10/23	1200 D	51 	86 	1200 T	56	(56)	1400 T	101	379 	1400 T	57	(57)	1200 D	55	(55)	1200 T	56	48 	1200 T	59	(59)	1600 T	61	(61)	1600 T	94	(94)	1800 T	114	(114)				704 	17 	2%

The Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/23/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=134156&page=1

Nitro,

I fixed your dutch calculator to work with HK odds, since it was written for US odds. I then reran your first 10 days through the calculator, and these were my results.

	 Wagered	 Returned	 Net	     Profit Margin
Day 01	 $376.90 	 $196.00 	 $(180.90)	-48%
Day 02	 $783.72 	 $710.00 	 $(73.72) 	-9%
Day 03	 $634.85 	 $701.00 	 $66.15 	 10%
Day 04	 $614.56 	 $617.00 	 $2.44 	         0%
Day 05	 $407.53 	 $453.00 	 $45.47 	 11%
Day 06	 $611.24 	 $612.00 	 $0.76 	         0%
Day 07	 $315.93 	 $344.00 	 $28.07 	 9%
Day 08	 $750.16 	 $778.00 	 $27.84 	 4%
Day 09	 $394.28 	 $323.00 	 $(71.28)	-18%
Day 10	 $893.53 	 $695.00 	 $(198.53)	-22%
Total	 $5,782.70 	 $5,429.00 	 $(353.70)	-6%

I've attached my validation. As you can see, the difference is a lot bigger than you thought.

[Nitro]

I’m not sure why this thread popped up again w/o any additional comment, but I gives me the opportunity to repeat my post (below) from anther HK thread. Yes, there is a difference between US$ odds and HK$ odds. But I’ll say this one more time, this entire thread was simply a demonstration of a Dutching scheme that evolved from someone asking a basic question about making money from the selections posted other than playing Quinellas, Triples or just straight Win/Place bets. If there’s a question in anyone’s mind about the results I’ve posted, just think of them from the perspective of the HK player. Of course realize that if the combined odds (from any source) on the 3 entries chosen produces a low profit margin then it may not be a worthwhile play. It’s that simple!

Originally Posted by Winger

Nitro,
I fixed your dutch calculator to work with HK odds, since it was written for US odds. I then reran your first 10 days through the calculator, and these were my results.

 	 Wagered	 Returned	 Net	     Profit Margin
Day 01	 $376.90 	 $196.00 	 $(180.90)	-48%   

I've attached my validation. As you can see, the difference is a lot bigger than you thought.

Hi Winger
You might have tried to fix the Dutch calculator for US returns by incorporating US$ odds versus HK$ odds, but unfortunately you’ve completely failed to observe one of the basic guide lines for even making any Dutch play worthwhile. I’ve posted this same line item on EVERY Summary page.
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50%

You've apparently completely ignored the fact that when the combined odds (no matter where they’re coming from) on the 3 entries to be Dutched are lowered, the O.A. Profit margin % is also significantly reduced.

So in actuality your so-called “validation sheet” is nothing more than a list of numbers without any actual validation showing the Dutch calculations themselves.
For the fun of it I thought it might be interesting to see just how invalid it might be.

I realize this may burst our group’s little bubble, but I’m sure none of them bothered to take the time to check out your calculations. Yet they’ll sure enough jump on any superficial bandwagon thinking that they’ve uncovered some dramatic impropriety.

Dutching Calculations for DAY 1 – 9/21/16 using US$ odds.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9…………Results: 10-5-3-8
Dutch - 2 ( 3.8/1 ) – 4 ( 7.4/1 ) – 1 ( 6.8/1 ) - ($37.00) – ($37.00)

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
3.8	6.8	7.4	BET	PRF	
$10	$16	$17			
$17	$10	$10	$37	$44	119%
$81	$81	$81	 

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12 ………..Results: 9-12-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 4.1/1 ) – 1 ( 2.7/1 ) – 9 ( 2.5/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)

  PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.5	2.7	4.1	BET	PRF	
$7	$7	$10			
$10	$10	$7	$27	$9	33%
$36	$36	$36	 

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2 …………Results: 7-3-1-4
Dutch - 3 ( 0.8/1 ) – 4 ( 6.8/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)

  PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
0.8	5.7	6.8	BET	PRF	
$4	$13	$16			
$16	$4	$4	$23	$5	20%
$28	$28	$28	 

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10 ……….Results: 1-7-6-5
Dutch - 4 ( 11.3/1 ) – 9 ( 1.6/1 ) – 3 ( 42/1 ) - ($42.00) – ($79.00)

 		
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.6	11.3	42.0	BET	PRF	
$5	$25	$86			
$33	$7	$2	$42	$44	104%
$86	$86	$86	 

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9…………..Results: 5-1-9-11
Dutch - 8 ( 5.9/1 ) – 3 ( 3.8/1 ) – 5 ( 3.8/1 ) - $29.00 – ($50.00)

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
3.8	3.8	5.9	BET	PRF	
$10	$10	$14			
$14	$14	$10	$37	$29	78%
$66	$66	$66	 

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9 ………...Results: 4-10-1-12
Dutch - 4 ( 5.2/1 ) – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 12 ( 3.8/1 ) - $17.00 – ($33.00)

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.8	3.8	5.2	BET	PRF	
$8	$10	$12			
$12	$10	$8	$30	$17	58%
$47	$47	$47	 

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4 ………….Results: 1-8-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 1.7/1 ) – 2 ( 2.1/1 ) – 1 ( 13/1 ) - $0.00 – ($33.00)

  PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.7	2.1	13.0	BET	PRF	
$5	$6	$28			
$28	$24	$5	$58	$18	31%
$76	$76	$76	

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9………..Results: 7-10-12-8
Dutch - 6 ( 2.2/1 ) – 8 ( 12/1 ) – 12 ( 3.1/1 ) – $0.00 – ($47.00)

  PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.0	3.0	12.0	BET	PRF	
$6	$8	$26			
$13	$10	$3	$26	$13	50%
$39	$40	$39	 

The original Dutching calculations using the HK odds from 9/21/16 are on this link:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...7&page=2&pp=15

SUMMARY

 
	HK		RESULT		US		RESULT
	PROF%	ACTION	HK$		PROF%	ACTION	US$
R1	155	PLAY	($43)		119	PLAY	($37)
R2	67	PLAY	$22 		33	PASS	$0 
R3	66	PLAY	$20 		20	PASS	$0 
R4	193	PLAY	($30)		104	PLAY	($42)
R5	112	PLAY	$48 		78	PLAY	$29 
R6	92	PLAY	$33 		58	PLAY	$17 
R7	72	PLAY	$47 		31	PASS	$0 
R8	94	PLAY	($31)		50	PASS	$0 
TOTALS		5 OF 8	$66 			2 OF 4	($33)
		BETTING	$310 		BETTING	$146 	
		P$L%	21%		P$L%	-23%	
 

As you can see the actual loss of only 23% is less than 1/2 of what’s been erroneously suggested on this particular day. Since this so-called “validation” represents the worst loss of the 10 days listed, I plan on checking the other race days, because I suspect to find similar disparities.

So while the peanut gallery is having their jollies, they unwittingly compromised themselves by making more foolish statements. But that’s fine! I always enjoy a good laugh myself. In fact I find it especially amusing that it’s been conveniently forgotten that on the day of this thread (using US odds) the Profit margin was up 49%. I guess everyone is doing so well that it must be minuscule by comparison. Now that's a laugh!

[Winger]

Same reply I gave you in the other thread.

Nitro,

This has been updated for only races with a profit margin >50%.

	Wagered	         Returned	 Net	        Margin	Plays	Hits	Rate
Day 01	 $268.88 	 $56.00 	 $(212.88)	-79%	5	1	20%
Day 02	 $729.14 	 $639.00 	 $(90.14)	-12%	8	3	38%
Day 03	 $599.36 	 $701.00 	 $101.64 	17%	7	3	43%
Day 04	 $509.28 	 $556.00 	 $46.72 	9%	7	4	57%
Day 05	 $164.83 	 $263.00 	 $98.17 	60%	3	2	67%
Day 06	 $434.90 	 $508.00 	 $73.10 	17%	7	4	57%
Day 07	 $224.42 	 $313.00 	 $88.58 	39%	4	3	75%
Day 08	 $534.12 	 $555.00 	 $20.88 	4%	7	5	71%
Day 09	 $273.79 	 $227.00 	 $(46.79)	-17%	5	1	20%
Day 10	 $845.42 	 $634.00 	 $(211.42)	-25%	9	3	33%
Total	 $4,584.13 	 $4,452.00 	 $(132.13)	-3%	62	29	47%

Also, in your example above, you miscalculated your profit margin. On the last race, which you tossed, the US Odds were 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, which equates to a 53% profit margin which is not a pass. So your actual profit margin for that day was -79%. So your profit margin for races with a PRF% >50% was worse than if you played every race, not better.

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by Winger

Same reply I gave you in the other thread.

Nitro,

This has been updated for only races with a profit margin >50%.

	Wagered	         Returned	 Net	        Margin	Plays	Hits	Rate
Day 01	 $268.88 	 $56.00 	 $(212.88)	-79%	5	1	20%
Day 02	 $729.14 	 $639.00 	 $(90.14)	-12%	8	3	38%
Day 03	 $599.36 	 $701.00 	 $101.64 	17%	7	3	43%
Day 04	 $509.28 	 $556.00 	 $46.72 	9%	7	4	57%
Day 05	 $164.83 	 $263.00 	 $98.17 	60%	3	2	67%
Day 06	 $434.90 	 $508.00 	 $73.10 	17%	7	4	57%
Day 07	 $224.42 	 $313.00 	 $88.58 	39%	4	3	75%
Day 08	 $534.12 	 $555.00 	 $20.88 	4%	7	5	71%
Day 09	 $273.79 	 $227.00 	 $(46.79)	-17%	5	1	20%
Day 10	 $845.42 	 $634.00 	 $(211.42)	-25%	9	3	33%
Total	 $4,584.13 	 $4,452.00 	 $(132.13)	-3%	62	29	47%

Also, in your example above, you miscalculated your profit margin. On the last race, which you tossed, the US Odds were 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, which equates to a 53% profit margin which is not a pass. So your actual profit margin for that day was -79%. So your profit margin for races with a PRF% >50% was worse than if you played every race, not better.

why you arguing with this A-hole???!!! . let him think he's an Einstein. Male chauvinists like him are a dime a dozen.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by steveb

if it's 17/1 and a unit is hk10, then the return is hk180 and 170 profit per unit.
i have no idea what the subject is, but 17/1 implies 17 chances of losing and one of winning, so the return would be 180 for 10 dollars.

This is an old thread, but the part about the odds was interesting to me and the way Hong Kong displays the odds on their tote board is different than the way the U.S. racetracks display odds. I am hopeful my post will be helpful to those new to HK racing.

I think I am correct in saying that 4/1 US odds is displayed in HK as 5/1. And 3/2 US odds is displayed in HK as 2.5/1

Another related thought about odds:

The easiest way I have found of calculating odds is by using this equation:

The Probability of Losing ÷ The Probability of Winning

Let's say a handicapper thinks a horse has 60% chance of losing and a 40% chance of winning. The handicapper gives this horse odds of 3/2.

If the tote board shows odds of 4/1 on the same horse then the handicapper might have a good bet because the tote board is saying that the horse has an 80% of losing and a 20% chance of winning.

The interesting thing about comparing the odds of 4/1 to 3/2 is that at 3/2 the horse's probability of losing decreases from 80% to 60% -- a 25% decrease. It's probability of winning increases from 20% to 40% -- a 100% increase.