Maximum Security

[PowerUpPaynter]

This horse hasnt gotten much press but isnt he kinda like a Hidden Scroll with a more solid pedigree with a worse PR department... lol... Interested to see him in the Florida Derby.

[hopbet]

Pros:

The horse posted a 109 Equibase figure last out which bests either of Instagrand's starts.

Horse is a Mr. P top line and those have had no shortage of success on the Derby trail for the past few decades.

Horse is female family 1-n. Female family 1 has had tremendous success in the Derby.

Horse has excellent pilot assuming he stays up.

Cons:

Horse has beat nothing but did beat the hell out of the nothing.

Dosage profile doesn't scream sprinter however it's not very deep with 14 total points and none in the solid or professional position.

Horse has posted some blazing fractions but has yet to route. Is it pure speed or can it ration some going longer. Nine panels in the FL Derby is a quarter mile longer than he has run.

The three year old crop appears to be superior than previous couple years, at least the cream of the crop. He's going to face some stiff competition and will likely need to secure the place pool in FL Derby without a quick turnaround in the Lexington in order to secure a gate in Kentucky.

My take is the horse will do well up to 8.5F. I'm skeptical he's going to be a classic distance type.
f2tornado send this message

[PowerUpPaynter]

closed the final 3/8 in 35.96, sure thats a product of the slow slow slow pace but man... iv never seen a sub 36 as long as iv been doing the fractions on the big 6 preps...

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

closed the final 3/8 in 35.96, sure thats a product of the slow slow slow pace but man... iv never seen a sub 36 as long as iv been doing the fractions on the big 6 preps...

Strike the Gold is the only one I’m aware of. I’ll probably have to use MS. Hard to not use a Mr. P with female family 1 that ran a fast final 3/8th winning the FL Derby. Hits too many angles.

[Robert Fischer]

I know absolutely nothing about this horse.
unlikely , but unknown and unexposed.

One has to be able to say "I don't know." and not just spout off opinions about stuff outside the circle of competence.

pros = Jason Servis. Also that we don't know enough to eliminate him.

cons = Has never faced adversity in a race. Also that we don't know enough to include him.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

This horse hasnt gotten much press but isnt he kinda like a Hidden Scroll with a more solid pedigree with a worse PR department... lol... Interested to see him in the Florida Derby.

I hope you fired him!

[Mulerider]

Just read that he got a 101 Beyer for the Fl. Derby.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

pros = Jason Servis.

That's a pro in your book? I like honest racing.

None of the best hall of fame trainers ever won at a 45% clip. Never.
45% + 1. That's a mockery of the great trainers who never broke 25% on their best streaks.

You guys can have that kind of racing. I can make money betting other trainers.

There was already a topic on him a while back, so I won't repeat what was in there.

[Robert Fischer]

He's a good trainer.

Spots his horses well. Picks out a couple soft spots. Brings them along slowly.

Servis is a class act.

Now, as far as betting, I'll be perfectly honest; about the only time I'll bet a high percentage guy is when they are a price and a value. Those are not auto bets for me, and they are difficult in their own right, because that often requires either facing a rival that is a heavy favorite with pretty form, or stepping up in class.

If the price is low for a high% guy, it's almost an auto-toss for the entire race.

Originally Posted by clicknow

That's a pro in your book? I like honest racing.

None of the best hall of fame trainers ever won at a 45% clip. Never.
45% + 1. That's a mockery of the great trainers who never broke 25% on their best streaks.

You guys can have that kind of racing. I can make money betting other trainers.

There was already a topic on him a while back, so I won't repeat what was in there.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He's a good trainer.

Spots his horses well. Picks out a couple soft spots. Brings them along slowly.

Servis is a class act.

He's been up and coming for a couple years now. Only recently started to getting more stakes calibur horses. Obviously becoming a very solid trainer. His brother had Smarty Jones and Maximum Security has similar bloodlines and running style.

[Thomas Roulston]

Didn't Maximum Security run a 100 Beyer last year?

And American Pharaoh and Justify have blown the Dosage Index and the EFH, respectively, out of the water as Derby handicapping tools.

To me at least, the fact that a horse has run at least one triple-digit Beyer is now a more effective eliminator than either the DI or the EFH.

[Dahossdaboss]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Didn't Maximum Security run a 100 Beyer last year?

And American Pharaoh and Justify have blown the Dosage Index and the EFH, respectively, out of the water as Derby handicapping tools.

To me at least, the fact that a horse has run at least one triple-digit Beyer is now a more effective eliminator than either the DI or the EFH.

You’re probably thinking of Maximus Mischief

[PowerUpPaynter]

Hope they learned by watching what they did to Hidden Scroll and just let this horse go to the front and see if he is good enough to carve out a War Emblem type race in the Derby.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Didn't Maximum Security run a 100 Beyer last year?

And American Pharaoh and Justify have blown the Dosage Index and the EFH, respectively, out of the water as Derby handicapping tools.

To me at least, the fact that a horse has run at least one triple-digit Beyer is now a more effective eliminator than either the DI or the EFH.

Justify had a DI of 3.00 which is a good number. American Pharoah 4.33 which is par for recent times. 4.00 was once considered the cutoff however the average winning figure has been increasing for years and Roman acknowledged as much. I still find value in Dosage when chalky horses with a DI of 7+ are going 8.5F or longer for the first time. They often don't win.

Maximum Security has a solid DI of 3.00. Certainly don't toss him for that reason.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Hope they learned by watching what they did to Hidden Scroll and just let this horse go to the front and see if he is good enough to carve out a War Emblem type race in the Derby.

I think we can put a fork in Hidden Scroll as a major Kentucky Derby contender.

Absolutely no excuse in the Fla Derby. The horse never ran a jump at any time.
He couldn't even gain an inch on a maiden for god's sake.