Down to three on top

[FartyJones]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

I still believe that was one of the best rides in the stretch in my 30 years of handicapping, he weaved his way in side and out of one paced and slowing horses and picked up lead was unbelievable. The horse happened to catch two back to back races whereby the paces eventually collapsed. If the race before where he closed to finish which I believe was the Jeff Ruby and he hit the board in 1 1/8 just to get enough points to make the ae list. The extra distance along with the same scenario and that saying of Lightning striking twice.

He was not the first derby winner who ended up turning into just an extra horse as a three year old and at 4. Animal Kingdom, Super Saver...Mind that Bird... never the superstars after word... A great horse, great sire now, was my derby pick and people laughed at me........His name. Gun Runner.. I believe he ran 3rd... pretty sure his 3 year old campaign was good but interesting enough, what happened when he hit 4 year... He matured, and kicked ass that whole year. So....some of them peak, they stop or the money in the breeding destroys it and we never know what they maybe like after they are allowed to grow into their manhood as horses. I love the picks but to be honest with you... I would not trust Fierceness, one bad step in this race or not up front.. he quits... Whoever backs him better hope he can hold that up front pressure.. Because the past two years have shown that 22 and 44 with any pressure on who decides to blow their motor early will hinder this horse at 1 1/4... We shall see ...this is not Bob Baffert and the cream or the needle and Mr. Pletcher has had his issues this way too. Give me Sierra Leone with Catching Freedom or Just a Touch with perhaps Mystik Dan... this horse is sneaky........

Animal Kingdom won the Dubai World Cup + ran 2nd to the great Wise Dan and Mine that Bird made a movie. Not exactly extras.

[Roaring Good Time]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

He was not the first derby winner who ended up turning into just an extra horse as a three year old and at 4. Animal Kingdom,

Animal Kingdom is a severely underrated horse. He was trained by a square guy rather than a super juicer.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by FartyJones

Animal Kingdom won the Dubai World Cup + ran 2nd to the great Wise Dan and Mine that Bird made a movie. Not exactly extras.

Amazing 7th post.

You should post more.

[wiretowire68]

LOL... I am talking 3 year old campaign and lots of horses ran 2nd to Wise Dan.... you miss the point.

[wiretowire68]

Ya, because of the story of getting to the derby...........and the connections of dreams, he was not a bargain basement buy either.. No offense but I think a movie about Charismatic would have been just as interesting or entertaining. Oh... my point about Animal Kingdom was that he did not win 2 legs of the triple crown and the last 10 years, Dubai Cup has not been considered the best race on the planet.. it is because the saudis put up the money. Horse racing has its i.e. or Super bowl.. it is called the Breeders Cup and in Europe it is Ascot and the Cheltenham festival(The Jumpers) and in Australia (Melbourne Cup) So ya Dubai is a big day but is still not the Breeders Cup so..........

[zico20]

My top three to win it are Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Stronghold. Give me the horse that can sit a stalking trip, move on the turn and not quit in the stretch. That fits Stronghold and he is my top selection as of right now. As many of you know I had Mage last year and the chances of me hitting the Derby two years in a row are slim at best. Maybe tune me in again at the turn of the decade.

I have to make a confession now. I am actively rooting against both Fierceness and Sierra Leone to win the Derby because I want neither one of them in the Preakness. My favorite race has always been the Preakness and that is where I have had the greatest success and I have just read that both Muth and Imagination are going to run in the Preakness. I want the Derby winner to be a huge longshot that has no prayer against those two. Now I would love to see Stronghold win as that would make for an amazing Preakness.

[Bennie]

Originally Posted by garywpt

I just read these stats 1) that between 2013 and 2023 , only 2 KY points leaders won the derby (2013: Orb and 2014: California Chrome) that applies to Sierra and 2) Since 2013, when the 100 point races began, 7 went on to win the derby, But 4 of the last 5 winners did not win a 100 point prep race. That would apply to Sierra, Fierceness, and Catching Freedom and a few more. I didn't fact check but the poster is a big time horse guy.

Regarding 4 of the last 5, I would mark an asterisk next to a few. Mandaloun (Medina Spirit race). Authentic (Late Derby and Baffert effect). Country House (Maximum Security race).
Mage was a decent horse but Rich Strike was one of those Mind That Bird types that will pop up every now and then, he did qualify by final fractions I believe.
I think this year the winner will come from a 100 point race winner, but haven't decided who that is just yet.

[wiretowire68]

The fact remains that we are not allowed to see these horses run at 4 years of age now because of the breeding money. I believe that this year or crop of 3 year olds is not nearly as competitive as last year. I know there are varying opinions but last year... despite the scratch.. You had Forte, Angel of Empire, Mr. Phil, Mage who was peaking at the right time and ran a decent third in the Preakness against two horses who did not run in the derby. You did have Kingsbarn etc. There were at least 7-8 horses last year with a legitimate chance with good odds.

This year after the top 3-4. There seems to be nothing too impressive here. I have said although the last race which was a dud...I still think. Mystik Dan has a legitimate chance to be in the superfecta and I am a huge fan of Brian Hernandez and Kenny McPeek combo.

[omar2]

Instead of focusing on the 3 logical horses first, I would approach the derby in this way:
A) toss out from WIN consideration ONLY any horse that I deemed ran a hard race in final prep; eg. closing from dead last to get up by a nose (Dialed In, Ice Box, Mo Donegal;
B) horses that ran within a length of the leader and battling most of the race. 4/3/21 Blue Grass Stakes ( Essential Quality-Highly Motivated);
C) any horse that’s Rank in its last race I Don’t Trust in a field of 20, especially with an inside draw.
After doing this pre Derby analysis and seeing the pp draw with m/l odds, I would check out every horse that’s 20/30/50 on the line to make sure I’m not overlooking a potential price horse that seems to show up a lot in the derby top 4 like an Instilled Regard. This horse ran against the same horses in prior 3-4 races at single odds and finished well. I believe Mandaloun fit that profile also. These are the horses that make your exotics.
A word about these foreign horses that show up every year. I really wish the connections would ship them sooner so they can work out at CD at least once before running, and I would like to see a jockey on them that ran at CD before. Even a Sonny Leon would be acceptable but like most years I’ll still use them in my exotics.
After doing all that I would still handicap the race for VALUE. If indeed Fierceness is the super horse I think he might be, then I would need to find a long odds horse or two to use underneath him to create value.
Omar

[f2tornado]

There's only three or four horses I'd trust on top of my tickets this year. The hard part of Derby capping in most recent years is picking the horse or two that can blow up the exotics.

A recent Brisnet LP of 96+ suggests exotics potential and there are not many this year. Several will be morning line top three or four: Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom. That leaves Resilance, Honor Marie, Just Steel, and perhaps Domestic Product as some legitimate tote bomber threats.

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Mage was a decent horse but Rich Strike was one of those Mind That Bird types that will pop up every now and then, he did qualify by final fractions I believe.

Actually, Rich Strike match with Mind that Bird - pedigree wise. Both are RAN/RAN and both had Smart Strike as the BMS. Seize The Grey also has these lines.

[Bennie]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Actually, Rich Strike match with Mind that Bird - pedigree wise. Both are RAN/RAN and both had Smart Strike as the BMS. Seize The Grey also has these lines.

I meant the prices and that they were both horses not on many peoples radar to win the Derby, nothing to do with their breeding.

[boys at tosconova]

i'm not a big fan of stone closers. both catching freedom and sierra will be far, far back for 2 calls. getting by horses in a 12 horse field is one thing but coming from virtually last in a 20 horse field comes with obstacles.