Kentucky Derby Workout Report

[Robert Fischer]

https://www.xbtv.com/video/tc18/just...ril-27th-2018/

0:00 Workmate is sent ahead as a 'target'.

0:02 Justify breaks off from a pony and starts to gallop after the target.

0:08 they've reached a breeze.

0:45 Justify begins to close the gap within his natural stride as they enter the turn.

0:56 Justify is patiently and carefully guided so as to be clear inside of another horse that happens to be on the track.

1:00 Justify enters the stretch at a maintenance pace.

1:05 Workmate/Target Jockey looks back and 'waits on' Justify a bit

1:10 Justify quickens a bit

1:16 Justify passes his workmate and quickens slightly more (probably adrenaline from passing the horse)

1:28 Justify is ridden out through the turn so as to gallop out strongly

1:40 Jockey stops driving, as to allow Justify to naturally begin to decellerate

Justify has now worked a strong mile with professional rating behind a target, schooling in traffic, good responses entering the turn and in the stretch drive, and a strong gallop out. And he did it while looking like an Easy Goer or an Arrogate in horseflesh and stride. This is a 3yo with 3 lifetime starts that went too fast early on the bit in his 9F Derby prep (Santa Anita Derby).THE WHOLE POINT of his Derby works is to ensure he relaxes early and finishes full of run (other than 'thrive' and 'stay healthy' which EVERY horse shares as a goal).

1:45 Jockey begins to pull-up Justify




The only other horse that has even been on the same PLANET as Justify in these Derby works is Vino Rosso. A few other horses have at least had good works, but only Justify and Vino have been working at an elite level.

You have to be completely clueless to argue that Justify's workout was bad.

[BlueChip@DRF]

1:21 The workmate rider looks like he gave a strong tug to pull back his mount to let Justify go buy and ease before the turn. No, I'm not saying it's a bad workout. I like the gallop-out.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

1:21 The workmate rider looks like he gave a strong tug to pull back his mount to let Justify go buy and ease before the turn. No, I'm not saying it's a bad workout. I like the gallop-out.

Yup.

And he also checked around 10 seconds to make sure the work had started properly, and also rated his horse around 1:05 ("1:05 Workmate/Target Jockey looks back and 'waits on' Justify a bit").

It was a structured work. Justify was the complete focus, the other guy was strictly there as a sparring partner to assist Justify's training. At 1:21 his job was effectively over.

In simplest terms, the work was a maintenance work with a target, followed by a strong gallop-out.
He could have gone like a maniac early, and sprinted his workmate into submission, but the purpose was to school for the Kentucky Derby.

The idea is to relax off the bit striding comfortably behind Promises Fulfilled until 6 furlongs or so when he'd begin to move up to even terms, eventually kicking away and opening up into the far-turn and stretch.

[burnsy]

Its all relative....some athletes work hard some don't. I don't put much merit in it. If they work differently than usual.......then maybe. If a horse has made it to this race, he's proven it in the afternoon.

Short memories, heard the same crap last year about Always Dreaming......"Don't bet him, he doesn't work."

Then he dispatched of the field in half a mile. Like I said last year, whose winning races along the way, usually means way more than the works. People that say a trainer works all his horses the same is a fool. Half their job is to get the horse comfortable and confident. They are animals like us, they are not machines. Plus, they can't talk so they have to be figured out. Some are worked in company just to keep them calm. I really don't put much stock in it, there have been horses that work great and win......then there have been horses that don't look great (like last year) and still win.

Give me a hundred to win on the "work out" horse....yeah, that's how it works.....stir the pot....lol

[GMB@BP]

I dont give much credence to talented horses working well.

Good horses who are not working as well, that gets more attention.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont give much credence to talented horses working well.

Good horses who are not working as well, that gets more attention.

this is smart.

[milfores]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont give much credence to talented horses working well.

Good horses who are not working as well, that gets more attention.

^this^

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Its all relative....some athletes work hard some don't. I don't put much merit in it. If they work differently than usual.......then maybe. If a horse has made it to this race, he's proven it in the afternoon.

Short memories, heard the same crap last year about Always Dreaming......"Don't bet him, he doesn't work."

Who said that last year? Always Dreaming had consecutive bullet works and the second one was pretty incredible.

[Blenheim]

“Every race takes something out of a horse, or puts something into him. Besides, the horse is only going to learn how to lose if you keep running him over his head or at the wrong distance.” Jerry Hollendorfer

“Sometimes you can control the situation better by using workmates in a series of long workouts. A couple of good long workouts can condition a horse as well as a race and there’s less risk of injury,” Charlie Whittingham

~

A sharp workout means faster than 12 seconds per furlong at four and five furlongs; faster than 1:13 at six furlongs; faster than 1:27 at seven furlongs; 1:42 at the mile. To quote papillon, “I do not think this was novel . . .”

Every animal is different and the works are adjusted accordingly. For Lone Sailor, trainer said he had to improve; for Magnum Moon, trainer said he wanted him to work out front; for Justify, relax until time to go – all the works different and suited to the animal and trainer intent.

What is important is how well [or not] did the horse do what the trainer intended.

I do think it is a bit of cat and mouse, one trainer goes, the other matches or exceeds. At other times I think they work em’ in particular ways to make sure they have all their bases covered . . . better to have worked the horse long than not to considering the race is 10 furlongs.

Workouts can provide clues as to what a trainer is thinking. They will always be necessary and provide a great deal of information.

[rabrown36]

Personally didn't think it was anything special. It was ok. The workmate was held up, looked locked and loaded and could have "won" the workout. For a horse that is supposed to breathe different air I expected more. In my other post I basically laid out the argument that these 3 year old cali horses are overrated. I guess we will find out on Derby day.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by rabrown36

For a horse that is supposed to breathe different air

strawman

its amazing how much being fast, unbeaten and the derby favorite creates these types of statements that are just not uttered by real people in the game.

[cj]

Almost like one person has two accounts.

[rabrown36]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

strawman

its amazing how much being fast, unbeaten and the derby favorite creates these types of statements that are just not uttered by real people in the game.

Breathing different air is what I heard Baffert say about Justify. It is not something that I made up.

[rabrown36]

Originally Posted by cj

Almost like one person has two accounts.

Different person. Just because two people have similar opinions, doesn't mean they are the same. Been reading this site for years, playing horses for years, just don't post. Normally the entertainment is enough. This year the " Hype" horses, I really don't get. They have done nothing, beat nothing, horses that they did beat have come back to do nothing. The Baffert factor, the Cali factor is giving these horses faster figs then deserved. Come Saturday, we will find out who is right or wrong. I predict no Cali horse will hit the board.

[cj]

Originally Posted by rabrown36

Different person. Just because two people have similar opinions, doesn't mean they are the same. Been reading this site for years, playing horses for years, just don't post. Normally the entertainment is enough. This year the " Hype" horses, I really don't get. They have done nothing, beat nothing, horses that they did beat have come back to do nothing. The Baffert factor, the Cali factor is giving these horses faster figs then deserved. Come Saturday, we will find out who is right or wrong. I predict no Cali horse will hit the board.

Cool, glad to have you posting.

The figures are the figures. In my opinion, a future race, particularly a unique one like the Derby, doesn't make them wrong or right. You could find many horses every year that regress a ton in the Derby. It doesn't mean the figures earned in preps were wrong. It means they couldn't reproduce them against a bigger, deeper field. It is up to the handicapper to figure out which horses can and which can't.