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Old 08-05-2018, 03:05 PM   #256
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Excellent call!




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Fuss,

Remember that the answer will not be found in tote movement.
What answers? The answer of identifying which horses will are likely to be bet down? This absolutely will answer that question better, because we can build a database and like anything, extract patterns. Leading to facts such as the horses they *in all likelihood, bet on. Then someone can guess better.

Particularly where I'm not sold on whales in every race.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:11 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
if you use computer software thats any good its pretty easy to predict which horses are going to get hit late, and if they dont you might as well tear up your tickets cause there is a reason they didnt and I didnt see it.
Correct. The and were easy to spot even doing what I am doing and using excel. I had the rated #2 (barely). The surprise to me was the , did not have that one rated well but it took a lot of late money, and ran well.
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Old 08-05-2018, 06:29 PM   #258
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Are you guys looking at pre-gate open tote to make these distinctions?
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Old 08-05-2018, 06:39 PM   #259
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I get pool totals when they are ready to start loading, and then a final total. Subtract the loading pool from the final pool and figure the odds on the difference.
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Old 08-05-2018, 06:45 PM   #260
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Since my programming time is very expensive, if I decided that a specific piece of code is solving some of the problems I have still not solved I would not hesitate a second to spend a few hundred dollars on it, back test it and eventually adopt it usage instead of develop a custom solution that will cost me many hours of work.

a few hundred!
thanks for the chuckle.
i have no idea what his software is like, but that was a seriously funny bit of posting by you.
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Old 08-05-2018, 06:46 PM   #261
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I get pool totals when they are ready to start loading, and then a final total. Subtract the loading pool from the final pool and figure the odds on the difference.
These are the pre-load and final win pool for race 10 that I recorded, was wondering if your numbers are same as mine or close?



1 Realm $15,096
2 Outplay $50,343
3 Timeline $76,262
4 Kurilov [CHI] $81,262
5 Patch $43,678
Total $266,644

1 Realm $22,390
2 Outplay $63,618
3 Timeline $115,383
4 Kurilov [CHI] $107,575
5 Patch $55,803
Total $364,771

Previous race 9th, win pool was $348,709
Win pool Race 6 :$425,496
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Old 08-05-2018, 07:57 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I get pool totals when they are ready to start loading, and then a final total. Subtract the loading pool from the final pool and figure the odds on the difference.
I love this but don't you get the "final" after the gate has opened?

How do you make a bet?
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Old 08-05-2018, 08:17 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I love this but don't you get the "final" after the gate has opened?

How do you make a bet?
But you learn what horses they are looking for, and a lot of them are easy to spot. Most are already fairly low in odds anyway. The was 5-1 when I posted to watch him and ended at 7-2. The computer teams and whales are usually not looking for that 20-1, although they find them occasionally, just like the rest of us.
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Old 08-05-2018, 08:29 PM   #264
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But you learn what horses they are looking for, and a lot of them are easy to spot. Most are already fairly low in odds anyway. The was 5-1 when I posted to watch him and ended at 7-2. The computer teams and whales are usually not looking for that 20-1, although they find them occasionally, just like the rest of us.


Ah... you are using it for future study. That's what I did but without the tote data.



I look for factors that correlate highly with the odds and then compare that to the handicapping that contributed to the winners.

The short version is that I look for horses that figure to be really bad bets instead of looking for the really good bets.

I admit that there is some special razzamatazz going on in my way of doing this, but it is actually showing a great deal of promise.
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Old 08-06-2018, 12:44 PM   #265
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If all people approached gambling the way you do then you are probably correct. For the majority of people gambling is a recreation and the economy and their employment situation is a huge factor.
You're clearly correct on this point - a poll isn't necessary, as someone suggested - simply read qtr'lty transcripts from US-based casino companies.
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Old 08-06-2018, 01:31 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by Fuss View Post
These are the pre-load and final win pool for race 10 that I recorded, was wondering if your numbers are same as mine or close?



1 Realm $15,096
2 Outplay $50,343
3 Timeline $76,262
4 Kurilov [CHI] $81,262
5 Patch $43,678
Total $266,644

1 Realm $22,390
2 Outplay $63,618
3 Timeline $115,383
4 Kurilov [CHI] $107,575
5 Patch $55,803
Total $364,771

Previous race 9th, win pool was $348,709
Win pool Race 6 :$425,496
So ranking the horses who increased from gate load odds by percent increase:
Horse 3 Increased 51.3%
Horse 1 Increased 48.3%
Horse 4 Increased 32.4%
Horse 5 Increased 27.8%
Horse 2 Increased 26.4%
Total 5 hrs. Incr. 36.8%

Did Horse 3, who increased the most percentage points Win? and/or did #1 place or win? These increases for favorites look typical, but I have no historical data to backup?
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Old 08-06-2018, 01:53 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
So ranking the horses who increased from gate load odds by percent increase:
Horse 3 Increased 51.3%
Horse 1 Increased 48.3%
Horse 4 Increased 32.4%
Horse 5 Increased 27.8%
Horse 2 Increased 26.4%
Total 5 hrs. Incr. 36.8%

Did Horse 3, who increased the most percentage points Win? and/or did #1 place or win? These increases for favorites look typical, but I have no historical data to backup?
The won, edging the at the wire. The finished 3rd or forth. Was not paying attention because I had the played and not the .
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Old 08-06-2018, 03:28 PM   #268
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I have tons of pool data from yesterday. Examples below, as you see I took data all along the chain. I found myself drifting to Nitro's HK thread and his views on Dutching. I'm going to work on all the data.. in all pools, wps.

I am also going to do some exacta and double pool analysis.

I do have a real responsibilities to tend to. Horse betting is my hobby. so this I will do in next day or 2.

. It will be cool for sure, and how useful will be up to beholder.


Code:
5 min to post 2:05I29A27A1:H31A1:I3A1:H26	Name	win pool	place pool	Show Pool
1	Winston`s Chance11953	5399	3422
2	Horoscope	22336	7808	4164
3	Holy Week	4035	1798	2032
4	O Shea Can U See	18333	5332	3802
5	Heavy Meddle	11901	5230	2941
6	Mighty Zealous	17372	6817	4427
         Total		85932	32386	20789
				
2 minute to post				
1	Winston`s Chance18103	8114	4081
2	Horoscope	27967	9063	5380
3	Holy Week	4743	2036	2263
4	O Shea Can U See	23188	7630	4826
5	Heavy Meddle	15480	6441	3455
6	Mighty Zealous	23674	8785	5082
         Total		113158	42072	25090
				
Post time	Post ime			
1	Winston`s Chance32530	13348	6189
2	Horoscope	45375	12265	6747
3	Holy Week	6368	2770	2953
4	O Shea Can U See	35185	12086	6618
5	Heavy Meddle	24980	9982	4890
6	Mighty Zealous	45881	15510	8731
        Total		190323	65964	36130


IN the gate 30 second clock begins.				
1	Winston`s Chance48697	20209	8137
2	Horoscope	56290	17281	7946
3	Holy Week	7417	3295	3398
4	O Shea Can U See	48482	15200	7841
5	Heavy Meddle	58608	15340	7074
6	Mighty Zealous	74667	22392	11284
         Total		294164	93719	45682



pools closed.				
				
1	Winston`s Chance65443	22392	9774
2	Horoscope	67661	20720	9114
3	Holy Week	7759	3447	3490
4	O Shea Can U See	56709	17604	8509
5	Heavy Meddle	84085	23262	9882
6	Mighty Zealous	81574	24743	12394
         Total		363234	112170	53165
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Old 08-06-2018, 04:03 PM   #269
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btw. I bet the opener on nyrabets mobile app while in a meeting. I started to think about flows of money and how betting devices are affecting flows.
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Old 08-06-2018, 11:46 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Correct. The and were easy to spot even doing what I am doing and using excel. I had the rated #2 (barely). The surprise to me was the , did not have that one rated well but it took a lot of late money, and ran well.
Red Sox are off tonight so I'm free to play with data/ and that's all I am doing.

To me its looks copy-cat money when the 5's odds hit an inflection point of 5.35 to 1.

The 6 odds actually went up and cash before and after 30 seconds were identical. No late money, normal flow. . The 5 that surprised you is shown red.


The dollars are total dollars between the 2 time stamps, 30 seconds and pool closing. This only represents late money by removing the early money.

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File Type: png flow through minutes.png (22.6 KB, 10 views)
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