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08-05-2018, 03:05 PM
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#256
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Excellent call!
[Edit]
Fuss,
Remember that the answer will not be found in tote movement.
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What answers? The answer of identifying which horses will are likely to be bet down? This absolutely will answer that question better, because we can build a database and like anything, extract patterns. Leading to facts such as the horses they *in all likelihood, bet on. Then someone can guess better.
Particularly where I'm not sold on whales in every race.
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08-05-2018, 03:11 PM
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#257
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
if you use computer software thats any good its pretty easy to predict which horses are going to get hit late, and if they dont you might as well tear up your tickets cause there is a reason they didnt and I didnt see it.
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Correct. The and were easy to spot even doing what I am doing and using excel. I had the rated #2 (barely). The surprise to me was the , did not have that one rated well but it took a lot of late money, and ran well.
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08-05-2018, 06:29 PM
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#258
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
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Are you guys looking at pre-gate open tote to make these distinctions?
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08-05-2018, 06:39 PM
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#259
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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I get pool totals when they are ready to start loading, and then a final total. Subtract the loading pool from the final pool and figure the odds on the difference.
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08-05-2018, 06:45 PM
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#260
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 900
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Since my programming time is very expensive, if I decided that a specific piece of code is solving some of the problems I have still not solved I would not hesitate a second to spend a few hundred dollars on it, back test it and eventually adopt it usage instead of develop a custom solution that will cost me many hours of work.
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a few hundred!
thanks for the chuckle.
i have no idea what his software is like, but that was a seriously funny bit of posting by you.
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08-05-2018, 06:46 PM
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#261
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
I get pool totals when they are ready to start loading, and then a final total. Subtract the loading pool from the final pool and figure the odds on the difference.
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These are the pre-load and final win pool for race 10 that I recorded, was wondering if your numbers are same as mine or close?
1 Realm $15,096
2 Outplay $50,343
3 Timeline $76,262
4 Kurilov [CHI] $81,262
5 Patch $43,678
Total $266,644
1 Realm $22,390
2 Outplay $63,618
3 Timeline $115,383
4 Kurilov [CHI] $107,575
5 Patch $55,803
Total $364,771
Previous race 9th, win pool was $348,709
Win pool Race 6 :$425,496
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08-05-2018, 07:57 PM
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#262
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
I get pool totals when they are ready to start loading, and then a final total. Subtract the loading pool from the final pool and figure the odds on the difference.
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I love this but don't you get the "final" after the gate has opened?
How do you make a bet?
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08-05-2018, 08:17 PM
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#263
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I love this but don't you get the "final" after the gate has opened?
How do you make a bet?
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But you learn what horses they are looking for, and a lot of them are easy to spot. Most are already fairly low in odds anyway. The was 5-1 when I posted to watch him and ended at 7-2. The computer teams and whales are usually not looking for that 20-1, although they find them occasionally, just like the rest of us.
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08-05-2018, 08:29 PM
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#264
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
But you learn what horses they are looking for, and a lot of them are easy to spot. Most are already fairly low in odds anyway. The was 5-1 when I posted to watch him and ended at 7-2. The computer teams and whales are usually not looking for that 20-1, although they find them occasionally, just like the rest of us.
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Ah... you are using it for future study. That's what I did but without the tote data.
I look for factors that correlate highly with the odds and then compare that to the handicapping that contributed to the winners.
The short version is that I look for horses that figure to be really bad bets instead of looking for the really good bets.
I admit that there is some special razzamatazz going on in my way of doing this, but it is actually showing a great deal of promise.
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08-06-2018, 12:44 PM
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#265
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
If all people approached gambling the way you do then you are probably correct. For the majority of people gambling is a recreation and the economy and their employment situation is a huge factor.
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You're clearly correct on this point - a poll isn't necessary, as someone suggested - simply read qtr'lty transcripts from US-based casino companies.
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08-06-2018, 01:31 PM
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#266
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuss
These are the pre-load and final win pool for race 10 that I recorded, was wondering if your numbers are same as mine or close?
1 Realm $15,096
2 Outplay $50,343
3 Timeline $76,262
4 Kurilov [CHI] $81,262
5 Patch $43,678
Total $266,644
1 Realm $22,390
2 Outplay $63,618
3 Timeline $115,383
4 Kurilov [CHI] $107,575
5 Patch $55,803
Total $364,771
Previous race 9th, win pool was $348,709
Win pool Race 6 :$425,496
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So ranking the horses who increased from gate load odds by percent increase:
Horse 3 Increased 51.3%
Horse 1 Increased 48.3%
Horse 4 Increased 32.4%
Horse 5 Increased 27.8%
Horse 2 Increased 26.4%
Total 5 hrs. Incr. 36.8%
Did Horse 3, who increased the most percentage points Win? and/or did #1 place or win? These increases for favorites look typical, but I have no historical data to backup?
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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08-06-2018, 01:53 PM
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#267
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
So ranking the horses who increased from gate load odds by percent increase:
Horse 3 Increased 51.3%
Horse 1 Increased 48.3%
Horse 4 Increased 32.4%
Horse 5 Increased 27.8%
Horse 2 Increased 26.4%
Total 5 hrs. Incr. 36.8%
Did Horse 3, who increased the most percentage points Win? and/or did #1 place or win? These increases for favorites look typical, but I have no historical data to backup?
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The won, edging the at the wire. The finished 3rd or forth. Was not paying attention because I had the played and not the .
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08-06-2018, 03:28 PM
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#268
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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I have tons of pool data from yesterday. Examples below, as you see I took data all along the chain. I found myself drifting to Nitro's HK thread and his views on Dutching. I'm going to work on all the data.. in all pools, wps.
I am also going to do some exacta and double pool analysis.
I do have a real responsibilities to tend to. Horse betting is my hobby. so this I will do in next day or 2.
. It will be cool for sure, and how useful will be up to beholder.
Code:
5 min to post 2:05I29A27A1:H31A1:I3A1:H26 Name win pool place pool Show Pool
1 Winston`s Chance11953 5399 3422
2 Horoscope 22336 7808 4164
3 Holy Week 4035 1798 2032
4 O Shea Can U See 18333 5332 3802
5 Heavy Meddle 11901 5230 2941
6 Mighty Zealous 17372 6817 4427
Total 85932 32386 20789
2 minute to post
1 Winston`s Chance18103 8114 4081
2 Horoscope 27967 9063 5380
3 Holy Week 4743 2036 2263
4 O Shea Can U See 23188 7630 4826
5 Heavy Meddle 15480 6441 3455
6 Mighty Zealous 23674 8785 5082
Total 113158 42072 25090
Post time Post ime
1 Winston`s Chance32530 13348 6189
2 Horoscope 45375 12265 6747
3 Holy Week 6368 2770 2953
4 O Shea Can U See 35185 12086 6618
5 Heavy Meddle 24980 9982 4890
6 Mighty Zealous 45881 15510 8731
Total 190323 65964 36130
IN the gate 30 second clock begins.
1 Winston`s Chance48697 20209 8137
2 Horoscope 56290 17281 7946
3 Holy Week 7417 3295 3398
4 O Shea Can U See 48482 15200 7841
5 Heavy Meddle 58608 15340 7074
6 Mighty Zealous 74667 22392 11284
Total 294164 93719 45682
pools closed.
1 Winston`s Chance65443 22392 9774
2 Horoscope 67661 20720 9114
3 Holy Week 7759 3447 3490
4 O Shea Can U See 56709 17604 8509
5 Heavy Meddle 84085 23262 9882
6 Mighty Zealous 81574 24743 12394
Total 363234 112170 53165
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08-06-2018, 04:03 PM
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#269
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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btw. I bet the opener on nyrabets mobile app while in a meeting. I started to think about flows of money and how betting devices are affecting flows.
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08-06-2018, 11:46 PM
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#270
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Correct. The and were easy to spot even doing what I am doing and using excel. I had the rated #2 (barely). The surprise to me was the , did not have that one rated well but it took a lot of late money, and ran well.
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Red Sox are off tonight so I'm free to play with data/ and that's all I am doing.
To me its looks copy-cat money when the 5's odds hit an inflection point of 5.35 to 1.
The 6 odds actually went up and cash before and after 30 seconds were identical. No late money, normal flow. . The 5 that surprised you is shown red.
The dollars are total dollars between the 2 time stamps, 30 seconds and pool closing. This only represents late money by removing the early money.
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