Larry Voegele's Probability Handicapping

[AndyC]

My intro into horse handicapping started in 1972 with Larry Voegele's book. I don't know whether to thank him or curse him.

I will never forget hitting my first $100 horse using his method. Part of his method was eliminating all horses that hadn't run in the last 14 days. I missed eliminating one horse because I thought the horse had run 10 days earlier but it was really 1 year and 10 days earlier. That's how you pick $100 horses.

[Calif_Eagle]

Originally Posted by NormanTD

Guys, I think you would be much better off buying a copy of Tom Maas's* "Overlay Handicapping". Much more modern and better tested methodology.

* Known as "Overlay" on the board.

I have purchased that material from Mr. Maas as well. My handicapping library is fairly extensive and goes back fairly far (post Dowst, it doesn't go back THAT far!), which means a lot of it is dated now, of course.

As I stated earlier in the thread, I don't want Mr. Voegele's material because I misguidedly think it contains the key to the mint. I want it because I have his other 2 works and think the way he approaches the races (and just thinks in general) is interesting. I doubt anyone wins with Mr. Voegele's material in todays game. I certainly don't expect that either. If I get one good idea from it, that makes it worthwhile.

[pandy]

Voegele wrote about "smooth" trips and stressful trips. He felt it was better to back horses that had smooth trips rather than stressful trips. I think his theory was too vague but he may have been the first guy in print who wrote about horses bouncing off stressful efforts.

One of the things I've been analyzing is trips that aren't smooth but not necessarily obvious rough trips. I think a lot of players who watch races are looking for horses that had bad luck trips, such as the obvious "checked hard in traffic." But I've noticed that a lot of horses win after having one or several recent races where they did not have a smooth trip.

[Calif_Eagle]

I wanted to acknowledge the fact that fellow PA member "Upthecreek" very generously provided me with a free PDF copy of the info I have been seeking. I would also like to thank him publicly via this forum for sending me this material. As it happens, NYE is my birthday and receiving a copy of this long sought after work by Mr. Voegele was a very nice present to wake up and find in my in-box.

Thanx again to "Upthecreek" for what I consider to be a very classy gesture!

[plainolebill]

Happy Birthday and Happy New Year!

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by NormanTD

Guys, I think you would be much better off buying a copy of Tim Maas's* "Overlay Handicapping". Much more modern and better tested methodology.

* Known as "Overlay" on the board.

Thank you for the kind words! (I took the liberty of editing your typo. )

And Happy New Year to all on the PA board!

[acorn54]

i agree mr maas holds no pretense to riches in his presentation of what he sells.
imo you can't go wrong purchasing ANY of his material. i have used his material and i am well versed in statistical works of ALL types, being both formally educated at university, and on my own. i can state he is a man of integrity and offers his works for a modest sum of money.
to every one a very happy and most importantly, healthy new year.

[Calif_Eagle]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

Happy Birthday and Happy New Year!

Thank you very much! And I wish you and all PA posters a very Happy New Year as well !

[NormanTD]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Thank you for the kind words! (I took the liberty of editing your typo. )

And Happy New Year to all on the PA board!

Sorry about that Tim. Maybe I can blame it on my iPad keyboard?

[shoelessjoe]

Worse thing I ever did buying his first book which got me hooked on horse racing, first week using it was hitting everything then the bottom fell out.

I did buy his seminar package which has a window handicapper and assigns point values

[Tom]

The pipe got my attention, but the ascot hooked me.

[Otealfr]

How write you are! Jay Richards was living in LA in the 60´s through the early 80´s when he moved to the Sin City of Vegas. While in LA He worked for your mentioned tout service and had a half hour radio program at 18.00, right after the races at KTYM 1070 Am radio station, Inglewood, for the same tout service "Horse and Jockey, a powerful source for winners". Funny enough while I was at my usual spot in HP (first floor mezzanine , where there was a bar with tables and Nola the bartender hated the fact that I never drank while I was handicapping, although we became very good friends, and she introduced me to my late Faith Godfather Mike Mitchel, since I had become so proficient using a modified Phase lll combined with Larry Voegele, Beyer figures and DRF stats) one middle age handicapper nickname me Horse and Jockey! LOL

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by AndyC

My intro into horse handicapping started in 1972 with Larry Voegele's book. I don't know whether to thank him or curse him.

I will never forget hitting my first $100 horse using his method. Part of his method was eliminating all horses that hadn't run in the last 14 days. I missed eliminating one horse because I thought the horse had run 10 days earlier but it was really 1 year and 10 days earlier. That's how you pick $100 horses.

Funny my own experience was exactly like yours ...........................

I bought "Professional Method of Winner Selection" also in the seventies and it was my first handicapping book.

While it was not the end all of handicapping books....it got me off to what is now called "Shape Handicapping"...........it is still the basis for my way of picking horses.

[upthecreek]

Anybody still have a copy of Professional Method of Winner Selection to trade? Drop me a PM
THNX

[pandy]

Voegele was the first handicapper to notice the "bounce" effect. His book showed a series of pacelines and recommended the ones where the horse raced "smooth" but not over extended. He didn't like to play horses that were coming off hard used stretch battles.