Orb checklist. Humbling game?

[JackS]

On the lines I choose to use in my pace figures, Oxbow and Orb were pretty much twins. Orb at 3/5 and Oxbow at essentially 32/5 made Oxbow an easy inclusion on my tickets. Unfortunatly for me neither of these horses were placed on top on any of my tickets but both were on the bottom of my exactas. In retrospect, Orb should have been eliminated completely due to his very poor odds.

[098poi]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

1) Last race visually impressive. Check.

2) Elite Jockey. Check.

3) Hall of fame trainer. Check.

4) Looked very nice in the post parade. Check.

5) Last workout looked as good as his previous works. Check.

6) All systems were go. Check.

Ok, now, i could see him not winning....but to be embarrassed and totally off the board without even a whimper? Was THAT predictable?

I know, all the geniuses will come out and say they 'knew' Orb was no good yada yada yada, but to see him not even close to hitting the board?

To me, that makes me question all my lines of thinking about this game. When i watch replays, what am i really looking for? Am i looking to throw out horses who look great on tape and just assume they can't duplicate that effort?

Logic says you want to watch a replay and look for strength, power, horses who are full of run and horses who maybe have more run than the PP lines show and try and get them to win today. Im not sure, maybe when we (you) watch replays, we're looking for something else.

I think it is a big mistake to use a triple crown race as a template for "lines of thinking about this game". These are 3 year olds running at new distances and any of them are eligible to improve or decline without warning. That doesn't mean you shouldn't handicap and try and take advantage of value if you see it but it sounds like you want to throw in the towel based on this one race.

[MightBeSosa]

rewatched it. Orb really never looked right, especially after backing up after making that little move on the backside.

Absolutely not the same horse today . duh. And the Lucas, ran like his pants were on fire, just like the Lucas of old.

Best thing to happen to Gary was that show Luck getting cancelled.

[RXB]

Partly Orb not the same horse today, and partly not the same pace setup, and partly some other horses just ran much better than in Orb's last couple of races (most notably Itsmyluckyday who returned to something near his GP Derby and Holy Bull form).

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by 098poi

I think it is a big mistake to use a triple crown race as a template for "lines of thinking about this game". These are 3 year olds running at new distances and any of them are eligible to improve or decline without warning. That doesn't mean you shouldn't handicap and try and take advantage of value if you see it but it sounds like you want to throw in the towel based on this one race.

No, im not tossing in the towel, i'm trying to figure out how a horse who really has no knocks can't even be competitive.

The preakness has historically been a race where the Derby winner either wins or races well, and this was a strong Derby winner and the field wasnt all that great and it was small. Most times, that Derby winner will be competitive. This time, with absolutely no warning, he was uncompetitive.

Its possible the Derby took a bunch out of him. It would have been nice to know that from the trainer's mouth.

Lesson here is this. You bet against all Derby winners in the Preakness and you bet against all Derby/Preakness winners in the Belmont with the logic that they're forced to run and if they came out of the race dinged up, they still are obligated to run.

[pandy]

My guess is that the main reason why Oxbow got loose on the lead was the track bias today. In my opinion, the track not only favored closers but it favored horses closing in wide paths. The rail was definitely dead. In the stretch in particular all of the riders were yanking their horses out to the four path all day. Gary Stevens moved Oxbow out for the stretch, no one wanted the rail. The jockeys probably figured it was best to wait and make a wide rally the way the track was playing, but sometimes over thinking tactics like that backfires.

[redshift1]

Bah, another year of inconsistent slow three year olds.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

The preakness has historically been a race where the Derby winner either wins or races well, and this was a strong Derby winner and the field wasnt all that great and it was small. Most times, that Derby winner will be competitive. This time, with absolutely no warning, he was uncompetitive.

I disagree that he was a strong Derby winner. not even close. He was swerving like he was drunk coming down the lane in the Derby. The last quarter in the Derby was a stagger fest. Orb wasn't on any of my tickets today.

Horses like Orb need too many things to go right. When they can't duplicate that huge one run.....it's over. I didn't need to hear it from Shug.

Just my opine

[RXB]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I disagree that he was a strong Derby winner. not even close. He was swerving like he was drunk coming down the lane in the Derby. The last quarter in the Derby was a stagger fest. Orb wasn't on any of my tickets today.

Horses like Orb need too many things to go right. When they can't duplicate that huge one run.....it's over. I didn't need to hear it from Shug.

Just my opine

You were right about Orb. And you were right about Itsmyluckyday, too.

I think I choked on this race. A $32 winner, a $300 exacta and I posted that I thought that the three with the best shots to upset Orb were Goldencents, Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday. And I wasn't sold on Orb, either. Oh well.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

When one horse just looks too good.... Is it just "too good" to be true? I mean, one horse was getting all the love that the rest of the field was pretty much being neglected.

see, I never thought Orb looked "too good". He had a nice win in the KD, but I never saw anyone on here (may have missed it) gushing about Orb like they were Big Brown after his KD. Orb, while I don't believe he's a stone cold closer, won off a closing position when the front collapsed. What's so great about that? What were the odds he'd get the same race at Pimlico? Not good. He was getting all the love because at least one horse has to be hyped for NBC to gain audience. You have to look dispassionately at each horse, and when you did so, Orb was not worthy of the praise or 3/5 IMHO.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by 098poi

I think it is a big mistake to use a triple crown race as a template for "lines of thinking about this game". These are 3 year olds running at new distances and any of them are eligible to improve or decline without warning. That doesn't mean you shouldn't handicap and try and take advantage of value if you see it but it sounds like you want to throw in the towel based on this one race.

+1

Plus, remember, they are horses. Handicapping has gotten a lot more precise in the last few decades, with everything from published speed and pace figures to analysis of ground loss to internal times to windspeed data, as well as all the much more sophisticated information we have on trips, breeding, and trainer statistics.

But they are still horses. All the numbers in the world can't tell you if, for instance, a horse has a sore foot or a stomach ache or just doesn't want to run today. That ambiguity, that impossibility of knowing exactly what a horse is thinking and feeling, is built into the game and there's nothing a handicapper can do about it.

We know a lot more than we used to, but it's impossible to know everything, and that introduces an element of randomness into race results. The fact that the best horse doesn't always win any particular race is part of what makes the sport fun (and a great gambling game).

[Tom]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I disagree that he was a strong Derby winner. not even close. He was swerving like he was drunk coming down the lane in the Derby. The last quarter in the Derby was a stagger fest. Orb wasn't on any of my tickets today.

Horses like Orb need too many things to go right. When they can't duplicate that huge one run.....it's over. I didn't need to hear it from Shug.

Just my opine

I though the same thing, and when you posted that, I was almost convinced, but that danged awesome workout Monday clouded my thinking into dismissing the stretch run.

Not the first time I have been led astray by workouts.

[JPinMaryland]

Originally Posted by RXB

Partly Orb not the same horse today, and partly not the same pace setup, and partly some other horses just ran much better than in Orb's last couple of races (most notably Itsmyluckyday who returned to something near his GP Derby and Holy Bull form).

WHat about the track condition on the inside? Also Orb had to run inside of other horses. There were any number of factors one could cite, and there's no reason to think he wont come back.

Other people here mentioned that ORb might have a tougher time this time having to run inside of horses I didn't really buy into that after watching the Fountain of Youth where he had the same post. He simply dropped back and went around them all. But here it wasn't quite the same he didn't seem to have enuf room to maneuver and Rosie was blocking him in for quite a spell.

He's won 5 graded stakes in a row, he obviously had some problems yesterday, I still think he's got a few left in him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by MightBeSosa

rewatched it. Orb really never looked right, especially after backing up after making that little move on the backside.

Absolutely not the same horse today . duh. And the Lucas, ran like his pants were on fire, just like the Lucas of old.

Best thing to happen to Gary was that show Luck getting cancelled.

I think I'll start deleting any post that misspells Lukas's name in the future. That ought to get people's attention...

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

No, im not tossing in the towel, i'm trying to figure out how a horse who really has no knocks can't even be competitive.

Especially when he's trained by a man whom we were all told two weeks ago, only sends them when they are "right"...he doesn't push them like that evil LUCAS guy...