brisnet late pace

[sbcaris]

I did an analysis of the last 16 Derbies with regard to Late Pace Brisnet figs. 14 of the last 16 winners had a late pace fig of 96 or higher. This translates into an impact value of 1.65.

The following possible Derby horses fit this criteria:

Horse------------------Brisnet Late Pace Fig

International Star-----107
Danzig Moon-----------102
Carpe Diem------------101
Frosted-----------------101
Frammento-------------101
Stanford-----------------98
Keen Ice-----------------97
War Story---------------96
---------------------------------
American Pharaoh------95
El Kabeir----------------95
Firing Line---------------94
Tencendur---------------94
Far Right----------------94
Materiality--------------90
Dortmund---------------89
Upstart------------------88
Madefromlucky---------88
Ocho 3------------------89
Bolo---------------------82
Mr. Z--------------------80
One Lucky Dane--------82
Itsaknockout------------63

Interestingly, the Late Pace runners are not the favorites. Dortmund and American Pharaoh better hope they get the lead all by themselves in this Derby or one of the Late Pace guys might just come charging from the back like a Monarchos. That could be wishful thinking but it has happened before.

That being said, we still cannot rule out a wire to wire victory by one of these powerful frontrunners. Or, sometimes a horse that shows powerful front-running style lays slightly off the pace and wins the roses. Remember Big Brown from the 20 hole in 2008. He broke well enough to lay slightly off the pace and then drew away in the final furlongs. California Chrome did the same last year. He too looked like a front speed need the lead type but he stalked and picked up the pace when it counted most.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Add to....10-15 derby exacta's made up of horses with a Bris LP of 96+ in last.

One could argue that if AP ran the stretch in his last he would have broke 96 easy...

[SecretAgentMan]

I haven't gone back to see how many horses in each derby had 96 LP & didn't win......I'm assuming an avg of 5 or 6........multiply that by 16, 16x6= 96.......14 winners divided 96 is about 14%........like I said, I haven't gone back to look tho.



I still like the fact that we are able to pick from a selective group of horses.

By the way, this Yeats group has 8 horses.......I estimated 6 horses a year.

[Secondbest]

How do rank Mubtaahij?

[sbcaris]

What is the Yeats group with 8 horses?

[nads1420]

ill say one thing... Frosted seems to fit a lot of the angles and not many of the curses...

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

What is the Yeats group with 8 horses?

This years group*****

[sbcaris]

Does that mean the 8 horses with final fraction times of 37 4/5 or less or 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep???

[SecretAgentMan]

I was commenting that you listed 8 horses with a 96 LP or higher........are you saying the 8 horses listed above with a 96 LP or higher must meet your fraction angle as well?

[sbcaris]

Not necessarily: I like to look at the pedigrees of each of the horses that met my final fraction criteria. In addition, the running style may play a big role in this Derby.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Huddy Goodjob

Add to....10-15 derby exacta's made up of horses with a Bris LP of 96+ in last.

One could argue that if AP ran the stretch in his last he would have broke 96 easy...

Late Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the 2nd call (pre-stretch call, 6F in a route) to the finish.

The LP is the pace from 6F to the finish. Oaklawn must have been running fast that day because the physical times suggest better. Essentially the opposite of FL Derby conundrum. I'm not convinced that horse was dialed down that much, if any, to begin with. He's either the best horse this side of Secretariat or was running at or near full speed to run a final 1/8th in 12.6. Horses don't gallop out a final 1/8th in 12.6 like Haskin put it in his Derby Dozen... "had he not eased him to a gallop, he would have won by 15 lengths in 1:47 and change". No way that horse lost a full second. That would make his last 1/8th 11.6. Easy folks. Awesome horse but let's keep it real.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Watching the replay he didn't appear to be running full speed at any time in the race.

Bring up gallop outs...I always appreciate a horse who closes and gallops out past the ones who finished in front of them...Madefromlucky showed this in the AK Derby.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Huddy Goodjob

Watching the replay he didn't appear to be running full speed at any time in the race.

Bring up gallop outs...I always appreciate a horse who closes and gallops out past the ones who finished in front of them...Madefromlucky showed this in the AK Derby.

Exactly, HG. It PAYS to watch replays and subscribe to RTN.......Watch every gallop-out.

[SecretAgentMan]

Just went back & checked the final prep LP numbers from 2000 to 2013........that's 13 years.......& here's what I found......each year below with how many LP horses with a number of 96 or higher.......I do not have 2014 numbers:


2013.....(11)

2012.....(14)

2011......(9)

2010.....(10)

2009.......(14)

2008.......(9)

2007.......(11)

2006........(10)

2005........(11)

2004.......(12)

2003......(6)

2002......(8)

2001......(9)

2000.......(11)


So thats 145 horses in all, with an average of about 10 LP horses each year, much higher than the 6 I thought.

A good starting point to cut the field in half.......& then use other tools to try & find the winner.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Just went back & checked the final prep LP numbers from 2000 to 2013........that's 13 years.......& here's what I found......each year below with how many LP horses with a number of 96 or higher.......I do not have 2014 numbers:


2013.....(11)

2012.....(14)

2011......(9)

2010.....(10)

2009.......(14)

2008.......(9)

2007.......(11)

2006........(10)

2005........(11)

2004.......(12)

2003......(6)

2002......(8)

2001......(9)

2000.......(11)


So thats 145 horses in all, with an average of about 10 LP horses each year, much higher than the 6 I thought.

A good starting point to cut the field in half.......& then use other tools to try & find the winner.

so every year one of those horses won the derby?

So then for that trend to stick one of these horses would have to win this derby?

International Star-----107
Danzig Moon-----------102
Carpe Diem------------101
Frosted-----------------101
Frammento-------------101
Stanford-----------------98
Keen Ice-----------------97
War Story---------------96