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Old 05-21-2018, 08:40 AM   #46
LemonSoupKid
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
All the GOAT's had long careers.
Precisely why Secretariat doesn't qualify.

Remember, he lost in the next out (sorry, two out after the Arlington "Invitational") after the devastating Belmont (5-horse) performance.

How was he that much different than the aforementioned Arrogate?

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Old 05-21-2018, 09:50 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Arrogate, Gun Runner, and California Chrome were the best and most consistent of a thoroughly bad group of American older horses over the past 3 seasons.

These horses routinely beat up on horses like Breaking Lucky (1 for 14 lifetime on dirt), Neolithic (non-stakes winner eligible for NW3X), Hoppertunity (a 7yo), Keen Ice (3 for 24 lifetime), Mubtaahij (1 for his last 16), and Win The Space (winless in 2 years, 0 for last 11), and Dortmund (winless since 2015).

Arrogate defeated Gun Runner while that one was clearly a cut below his peak and his stamina suspect. Exaggerator blitzed Gun Runner a couple of times, too, in 2016. In fact Gun Runner's fastest efforts were his final 2 career starts (probably had more left in the tank, should have stayed in training).

California Chrome was never a fast horse and arguably his career was resurrected by the sheer fact that he stayed in training while stronger rivals (Shared Belief) fell by the wayside. The ride he got in the 2016 BC Classic was criminal. If I didn't know any better, I'd say Espinoza got his breeding right to American Pharoah personally from Baffert in the paddock right before the race. From the 5/8 pole to the 1/4 pole he did nothing but look around for Arrogate while floating himself wide.

Gun Runner suddenly got good when he started getting sent to the lead in relatively paceless races in short fields. He had to out-duel Collected a couple of times who was decent for about 4 races, faced claimers in a pair of his stakes wins, and hit the 110+ Beyer range a couple of times. Sounds like Collected should be mentioned in the "great" category himself considering those credentials.

Not sure why the Dubai World Cup holds any real significance in terms of historical importance. It is perennially a weak field made up of turf horses, old horses specifically trotted out during the Dubai carnival to fill races, and decent NA starter or two. Arrogate was bumped at the start and wrangled back and because he collars Gun Runner, he's Secretariat. California Chrome has the saddle slip all the way back into bucking bronco territory and he still wins off by open lengths, I guess he's better than Affirmed.
I like the way you think.
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Old 05-21-2018, 09:56 AM   #48
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How do we compare? Nobody really knows. Is Clayton Kershaw not great because Cy Young won 511 games? Is Johnny Unitas not great because his records are all virtually gone?

Sports change. Being dominant in your own era is pretty much the only real measure of greatness in my opinion. Comparing across eras is fun for discussion but there really is no right or wrong answer. Mostly people have a recency bias anyway, either positive or negative. To some there will never be another Secretariat or Jim Brown, while others think Gun Runner and Sidney Crosby are the best ever.

I agree with you on comparing players/horses to the others in their era.

My point was that "good" but not "great" horses (athletes) occasionally have great days or short bursts of greatness, but that doesn't make them great.

I think saying "that was a great performance" is different than saying "that was a great horse". The great horses have great performances sprinkled throughout their record and get the job done even when things are stacked against them. They aren't just great for a couple of months.
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Old 05-21-2018, 10:19 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
Precisely why Secretariat doesn't qualify.

Remember, he lost in the next out (sorry, two out after the Arlington "Invitational") after the devastating Belmont (5-horse) performance.

How was he that much different than the aforementioned Arrogate?
Much different?

12 races as a three year old from March to October.

thats 12 races in a 7 month period.

How bout a 133.2 one turn mile in March

How bout a 159.2 derby

How bout a 224 flat belmont

How bout a 224.4 12F on turf in the Man o war.

How bout his last race 13F on turf. Busted out to a monstrous lead on his way to an easy win in his 12th race of his 3 year old year.

How much difference do you want?

arrogate and secretariat were different as night and day.

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Old 05-21-2018, 11:15 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
Precisely why Secretariat doesn't qualify.

Remember, he lost in the next out (sorry, two out after the Arlington "Invitational") after the devastating Belmont (5-horse) performance.

How was he that much different than the aforementioned Arrogate?
I am not a gigantic Secretariat fan, but it seems to me that the Marlboro and the two grass races, all run in fast times, count for something.
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Old 05-21-2018, 12:28 PM   #51
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Secretariat had to be great. Only his connections were bad.
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Old 05-21-2018, 05:36 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
Precisely why Secretariat doesn't qualify.

Remember, he lost in the next out (sorry, two out after the Arlington "Invitational") after the devastating Belmont (5-horse) performance.

How was he that much different than the aforementioned Arrogate?
Arrogate raced 11 times in his career, Secretariat 21, Man O'War also 21. California Chrome raced 27 times with 16 wins, coincidentally the same number of wins Secretariat had. Of course, had California Chrome been considered to have great potential as a stud, his four year career may have been a year or two less.

Of the races Arrogate won, only the Travers existed during Secretariat's 3YO season, a race Secretariat had to pass due to illness after the Whitney. When he did return to racing he dominated a very good field in the Marlboro, setting a world record for 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. He set a track record on the grass in the Man o'War. In fact, Secretariat held multiple track and world records at the end of his career.

Anyone who saw his move in the Preakness (where he was robbed of a track record by a malfunctioning timer) would understand the greatness attributed to him. He could beat a horse any distance or any way you asked him to.

I had the pleasure of watching Secretariat race three times between Belmont and Saratoga. He was stunning to look at and powerful on the track. I'll concede that between Secretariat and Man o'War the separation is minuscule, but Arrogate or California Chrome are simply not in the same area code.
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Old 05-22-2018, 08:58 AM   #53
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Secretariat had to be great. Only his connections were bad.
what was wrong with the connections?
after close to 45 years and his track records still standing i would consider Secretariat as one of the greatest to race in history but again that is just an opinion.i believe his belmont record will never be touched as no one has come within 2 seconds of it and as the breed gets less stamina influence the 2.03
derby and 2.29 belmonts will become the norm and will leave his record untouched much like joe D's 56 game hitting streak has remained all these years later.
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Old 05-22-2018, 09:18 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
This isn't a terrible argument, but the flip side is if changes in the sport reduce the number of athletes doing great things, people should not move the goalposts.

We just had California Chrome and Game on Dude. So long careers are still possible. So why waste the term "great" on a 4 race wonder?
Exactly. The comparison just in one's era only works when there has been improvement in the sport, which can come from equipment used or nutrition and health advances, etc that improve the athletes.

When the sport has DECLINED despite all the advancements, then no, you don't move the goalposts or dumb down accomplishments.
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Old 05-22-2018, 09:20 AM   #55
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When the sport has DECLINED despite all the advancements, then no, you don't move the goalposts or dumb down accomplishments.
Either testing has gotten a lot better or pharmaceuticals have gone backwards in 40 years or so.
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