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02-19-2018, 08:30 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,114
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So in terms of pace, does a "Presser" need the leads to soften up?
When you look at Bris ratings for Pressers, do Quirin points even apply to them? I understand Quirin points to measure a desire or will to be placed where they want. Should a Presser even have Quirin points?
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02-19-2018, 08:58 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Yes, the presser needs speed points, otherwise he is not pressing the pace, he is chasing the pace.
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02-20-2018, 03:07 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 403
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Presser
Good stuff Tom. My question is if your using Timeform would the presser be a midpack horse or tracker?
Bob
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02-20-2018, 03:10 PM
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#19
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hracingplyr
Good stuff Tom. My question is if your using Timeform would the presser be a midpack horse or tracker?
Bob
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I think I can answer that one...tracker IMO. That was the intent of the label.
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02-20-2018, 03:18 PM
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#20
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Yes, that is how I handle the trackers.
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02-20-2018, 03:30 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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I mostly look at running styles.
IMO, horses only run as fast as they have to in order to secure the desired running position (horses and riders). So you can't necessarily tell how fast a "need the lead", "front runner", "near front runner" etc.. is capable of running based on how fast it ran early in recent races. Their prior fractions would depend on the kind of fields they drew into.
Once I know how the horse typically likes to run (including being versatile) it's only then that I try to determine if one of them can dominate some of the others on the lead or a couple are clearly inferior to a couple of others.
I will look at pace figures, but I tend to look at the quality and consistency of the horses each has been battling with or outrunning in other races. If one is clearly superior in quality, I'd expect it to either outrun or put away the cheaper ones and continue on (assuming form is constant). I'd expect the cheaper ones to fold (often badly) and finish worse than they would in a more neutrally run race.
When they are of similar quality, they tend to all run up close and it's kind of random as to which gets the lead (post position, start, rider aggressiveness etc..). In those races they will all mostly continue on unless the riders get overly aggressive.
There are also examples of horses that do their best running up close, but they draw into a race with so many front running and close up types that some of them wind up mid pack or worse (in slower fractions than they normally run). Those horses typically do not fire their best race. The exceptions are lightly raced horses that haven't really established what they are capable of doing.
We've all seen the speed horse that gets left to last and rallies to win, but we've also all seen the speed horse that gets left, is rushed up or outrun, and drops dead more often.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 02-20-2018 at 03:38 PM.
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02-20-2018, 03:39 PM
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#22
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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I like to look at running styles, but I've learned that most horses are more versatile than any labels we give them. Horses I identify as "Leader" or "Plodder" are pretty set provided they've run several times. The others can vary in reality, usually by one label in either direction.
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02-20-2018, 03:46 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I like to look at running styles, but I've learned that most horses are more versatile than any labels we give them. Horses I identify as "Leader" or "Plodder" are pretty set provided they've run several times. The others can vary in reality, usually by one label in either direction.
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I agree.
I try to look for extremes in the race setup before I project too much. I also like for what I am projecting to be consistent with the profile for that track, surface, and distance.
What good is getting the setup right if the track/surface/distance is playing the opposite way?
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02-20-2018, 04:02 PM
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#24
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I like to look at running styles, but I've learned that most horses are more versatile than any labels we give them. Horses I identify as "Leader" or "Plodder" are pretty set provided they've run several times. The others can vary in reality, usually by one label in either direction.
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Sartin's Energy program showed horses rating ranked Early, Early presser, pressers, sustained presser, sustained and late.
The program had a prediction of what would win the race, ie, Presser figures to win.
The idea was to look at horses within 1 of the prediction, so Presser would include EP,P,SP horses in your preferences.
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02-20-2018, 04:13 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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"Within 1" is probably a pretty good way of looking at it.
It gives you some margin of safety in case your analysis and label based on the past is wrong and also gives you some margin of safety if your analysis of the past is right but the horse is simply more versatile than it has shown to date.
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02-20-2018, 04:30 PM
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#26
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Sartin was ahead of the game - he was dealing with "about" back in the 90s!
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