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04-30-2018, 11:13 AM
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#16
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
A reliable way to measure a 3 yr old is by who he has beat, and the number of horses he beat? As two and three yr old's, IMO, you really can't do that. These horse's are growing and improving daily. They are also consistently in-consistent. For Derby horse's I would use, say a 105 Bris speed figure, or a 118 Timeform figure.
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I am not saying that who a horse has beat is the one and only handicapping factor one should look at when trying to figure out a race like the KY derby but it’s just common sense that it’s one of the primary things that should be factored in. It’s no less important than all this pedigree stuff that people on this forum like to throw around as gospel. Personally I don’t find it a compelling reason to bet a horse because in 1932 a horses great great great great grandmother won a race at a mile and a half.
I think when most people look at the DRF the first thing they look at is the horses most recent running lines and who they have been running against.
Maybe some people immediately go to the pedigree stuff first. For example I am one of those people that I don’t care if a horse has the best turf pedigree imaginable if that horse has had let’s say 10 previous tries in Turf and not done anything in any of them than I will be of a mindset that the horse has proven that for whatever reason he doesn’t like Turf, yet I acknowledge that there are many people on this forum that based on the immaculate turf pedigree that the horse has that they will swear the 11th time will be the charm.
Different strokes I guess ...
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04-30-2018, 11:38 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
I am not saying that who a horse has beat is the one and only handicapping factor one should look at when trying to figure out a race like the KY derby but it’s just common sense that it’s one of the primary things that should be factored in. It’s no less important than all this pedigree stuff that people on this forum like to throw around as gospel. Personally I don’t find it a compelling reason to bet a horse because in 1932 a horses great great great great grandmother won a race at a mile and a half.
I think when most people look at the DRF the first thing they look at is the horses most recent running lines and who they have been running against.
Maybe some people immediately go to the pedigree stuff first. For example I am one of those people that I don’t care if a horse has the best turf pedigree imaginable if that horse has had let’s say 10 previous tries in Turf and not done anything in any of them than I will be of a mindset that the horse has proven that for whatever reason he doesn’t like Turf, yet I acknowledge that there are many people on this forum that based on the immaculate turf pedigree that the horse has that they will swear the 11th time will be the charm.
Different strokes I guess ...
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I understand, just like comparing every horse to a number is not the only factor. And yes, different strokes for different folks, that is what handicapping is about. Be a boring forum if everyone did the same thing.
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04-30-2018, 11:39 AM
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#18
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Ah, now the thread has come full circle.
You vehemently defended the OP who pretty much pulled the same stunt with Bolt D'Oro's form that I just did on American Pharoah's Derby and now all of a sudden its an issue that no "analysis" is applied to superficial form reading?
A lot of bias being thrown around, but not much credibility.
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Where do I start ?
AP crossed the line first in the 2015 derby. Bolt has not crossed the line first in any of his three races after the Frontrunner. So there is the first real problem with you trying to compare the 2015 derby to Bolts last 3 races.
Great horses find ways to win. ( Zenyatta getting that horrible start and still winning the BC Cup classic, Alysheba getting blocked by Bet Twice repeatedly and also going to his knees all in the stretch and still winning the KY derby are a few examples ).
Good horses find excuses and not wins. BC Juvenile , San Felipe and SA Derby all are examples where Bolt didn’t cross the wire first but his supporters had a excuse to explain why he lost.
The KY Derby is like a magnet for excuses. It’s so easy for a horse not to win but have a valid excuse after the race. This race sets up perfectly for Bolt. I am sure he won’t win but I am also sure he will give his supporters a very valid reason to use in his defense why he didn’t win.
If Churchill Downs decides at the last minute to start paying out for the horse with the best excuse than I will give Bolt a long look but until that happens than I will put my money on horses that seem like they have a inner drive to be the horse that crosses the finish line first ...
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04-30-2018, 11:47 AM
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
I understand, just like comparing every horse to a number is not the only factor. And yes, different strokes for different folks, that is what handicapping is about. Be a boring forum if everyone did the same thing.
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Exactly .... I use speed figures as a piece of the puzzle but they are hardly the only thing I use. For example if going strictly off of speed numbers than one would use the highly inflated SA Derby figures and come to the conclusion that Core Beliefs who was a well beaten also ran in the SA Derby was more impressive than Magnum Moon was in romping home in the Arkansas Derby against a much deeper field than the SA derby had.
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04-30-2018, 12:09 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
An example of "who did they beat" from American Pharoah?
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This. I joked 2015 was the year of the nw2 other than maiden. I'm inclined to believe flattery is overrated though I have no real data to confirm this suspicion. I've always looked more at how the horse won versus who was beat. AP ran the 11th fastest Ark Derby in history including a fast final 3/8th. If one buys the slow Santa Anita surface then Bolt still ran a fast final 3/8th and is still right there with the other contenders. I'm not a fan using one horse on one day as a measuring stick. We all know Keen Ice beat American Phoaroah in the Travers but finished 4th in the Breeders Cup and has only won one race in 13 since. Justify beat Bolt on one day on one surface.
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04-30-2018, 12:21 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Exactly .... I use speed figures as a piece of the puzzle but they are hardly the only thing I use. For example if going strictly off of speed numbers than one would use the highly inflated SA Derby figures and come to the conclusion that Core Beliefs who was a well beaten also ran in the SA Derby was more impressive than Magnum Moon was in romping home in the Arkansas Derby against a much deeper field than the SA derby had.
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First. using the number or figure for a horse that is well beaten is not a sound practice, no matter how you use it. I agree that the figures in the SA Derby might be high, but are not "highly inflated". For Bris figures I am using 109 and 106 for that race, and only for the top 2, all the other horse's that ran is almost a wild guess. As for Magnum Moon's finish, drifting home might be a better way to describe it, at least it was not lugging home.
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04-30-2018, 12:24 PM
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#22
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,643
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
I bet if you did a poll ... 99% of Justify supporters consider CNN a reliable news source lol
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I take it the closer we get to the Derby, the less you feel you have to lose...
Why do trolls like you show up for the Derby every year, then disappear for the next 11 months?
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04-30-2018, 12:32 PM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
First. using the number or figure for a horse that is well beaten is not a sound practice, no matter how you use it. I agree that the figures in the SA Derby might be high, but are not "highly inflated". For Bris figures I am using 109 and 106 for that race, and only for the top 2, all the other horse's that ran is almost a wild guess. As for Magnum Moon's finish, drifting home might be a better way to describe it, at least it was not lugging home.
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When your 11 lengths out in front I am not going to nitpick a horse about drifting lol
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04-30-2018, 12:34 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Where do I start ?
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Probably on the wrong foot..
Quote:
AP crossed the line first in the 2015 derby. Bolt has not crossed the line first in any of his three races after the Frontrunner. So there is the first real problem with you trying to compare the 2015 derby to Bolts last 3 races.
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Of course, in no way was I comparing American Pharoah and Bolt D'Oro directly in terms of their relative pre-KY Derby prospects.
The point was you applied a careful analysis to AP's running line in the KY Derby, yet saw nothing wrong with the OP's slapdash run-through of Bolt D'Oro's past performances. You were inconsistent.
Let's try the other wrong foot...
Quote:
Great horses find ways to win. ( Zenyatta getting that horrible start and still winning the BC Cup classic, Alysheba getting blocked by Bet Twice repeatedly and also going to his knees all in the stretch and still winning the KY derby are a few examples ).
Good horses find excuses and not wins. BC Juvenile , San Felipe and SA Derby all are examples where Bolt didn’t cross the wire first but his supporters had a excuse to explain why he lost.
The KY Derby is like a magnet for excuses. It’s so easy for a horse not to win but have a valid excuse after the race. This race sets up perfectly for Bolt. I am sure he won’t win but I am also sure he will give his supporters a very valid reason to use in his defense why he didn’t win.
If Churchill Downs decides at the last minute to start paying out for the horse with the best excuse than I will give Bolt a long look but until that happens than I will put my money on horses that seem like they have a inner drive to be the horse that crosses the finish line first ...
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Interesting that you use the 3yo Alysheba as a horse with an inner drive to cross the finish line first.
He was 1 for 10 heading into the Kentucky Derby...
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04-30-2018, 12:43 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
When your 11 lengths out in front I am not going to nitpick a horse about drifting lol
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You should, to me it means that the horse is unsure of his place in the race, and when challenged might quit. Justify knew where Bolt was, and knew that he was where he was supposed to be, in front.
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04-30-2018, 12:46 PM
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I take it the closer we get to the Derby, the less you feel you have to lose...
Why do trolls like you show up for the Derby every year, then disappear for the next 11 months?
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I am not sure how you define troll ???
I have a very different opinion than the Justify faithful but I dont think that makes me a troll. I sometimes poke a little fun at the Justify people when making my case against the horse but I don’t think that’s being a troll, at least not by the standard definition of being a troll .
Just a guess here on my part , but maybe the reason people that have a different opinion than you ( or trolls as you call them ) stop posting after the derby is because you ban them from your site after the derby rather than have to listen to them say I told you so.
Let’s just be honest your track record on the derby isn’t exactly the best and it’s kinda hard to keep posting once you have been banned.
I do agree though it is very odd how people before the derby will be on this site putting forth a opinion and than when their opinion is proven right just when you think they will be posting even more with the I told you so type of stuff like most people would do they instead magically “dissapear”. Why would somebody spend so much time calling their shot but then be nowhere to be found when it’s time to gloat about it. Very odd indeed .... I guess all those “trolls” are a wacky bunch. Just sayin ....
I am sure I will “magically” dissapear after this post but it was going to happen anyways after Mendelssohn wins so just cutting to the chase
Last edited by LoneF; 04-30-2018 at 12:51 PM.
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04-30-2018, 12:47 PM
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#27
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
You should, to me it means that the horse is unsure of his place in the race, and when challenged might quit. Justify knew where Bolt was, and knew that he was where he was supposed to be, in front.
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Magnum Moon was so far out in front he probably forgot he was even in a horse race at all lol
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04-30-2018, 12:54 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Magnum Moon was so far out in front he probably forgot he was even in a horse race at all lol
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And Justify knew that no matter what Bolt did, on that day he could beat him.
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04-30-2018, 12:54 PM
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#29
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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If the best argument against Magnum Moon is that he drifts in the stretch when ahead by more than 10 lengths than I think I’ll take my chances using him on a few tickets ...
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04-30-2018, 12:58 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Where do I start ?
AP crossed the line first in the 2015 derby. Bolt has not crossed the line first in any of his three races after the Frontrunner. So there is the first real problem with you trying to compare the 2015 derby to Bolts last 3 races.
Great horses find ways to win. ( Zenyatta getting that horrible start and still winning the BC Cup classic, Alysheba getting blocked by Bet Twice repeatedly and also going to his knees all in the stretch and still winning the KY derby are a few examples ).
Good horses find excuses and not wins. BC Juvenile , San Felipe and SA Derby all are examples where Bolt didn’t cross the wire first but his supporters had a excuse to explain why he lost.
The KY Derby is like a magnet for excuses. It’s so easy for a horse not to win but have a valid excuse after the race. This race sets up perfectly for Bolt. I am sure he won’t win but I am also sure he will give his supporters a very valid reason to use in his defense why he didn’t win.
If Churchill Downs decides at the last minute to start paying out for the horse with the best excuse than I will give Bolt a long look but until that happens than I will put my money on horses that seem like they have a inner drive to be the horse that crosses the finish line first ...
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Funny you mention Alysheba. Have you ever looked at his record before the Derby?
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