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04-22-2018, 03:10 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Charting The Morning Line Favorites — creating an index!!!
Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 by number of daily wins for each month since February
Getting interested in patterns that look like an upside down v or /\
Seems whenever there are less than 4 wins on a particular day from this group you get a spike on the next racing day in some instances
Will start checking the chart on a daily basis following the MLFI or Morning Line Favorite Index for each of the N.Y. tracks
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04-22-2018, 03:33 PM
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#2
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Will check the Index just for Dirt since Morning Line Favorites do horribly on the Turf at least so far at Aqueduct!!!
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04-22-2018, 04:56 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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I forgot today was the last day of racing at Aqueduct!!!
On to Belmont!!!
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04-22-2018, 09:13 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!
Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!
Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 04-22-2018 at 09:16 PM.
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04-23-2018, 12:41 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!
Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!
Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!
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Will create the same type of index for Belmont I'm doubtful if there will be the same type of upward spikes like it was for Aqueduct!!!
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04-23-2018, 01:47 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
We got a nice spike today as 6 of 11 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were winners today at Aqueduct!!!
Aqueduct gave Chalk players a nice send off but that won’t continue at Belmont!!!
Chart Index for April will be in another post!!!
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The final month at Aqueduct for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 saw a nice spike on the last day of the season!!!
It was the only time there was a spike after a day with 4 wins!!!
Belmont's Index should be interesting!!!
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04-23-2018, 02:15 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 588
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The % hit rate for that range will maintain it's rate sporadically. Like flipping a coin will ultimately produce a .5 rate with frequent streaks on either side. I wouldn't put any faith in this endeavor, it is similar to betting when a win is perceived to be "due".
I created a system based on this principle for craps; wait for a 7 to roll then place the 6 and 8, remove both when either 6 or 8 hits and then wait for 7 again and start over. Eventually a streak of 7's occurs, which is infrequent but will happen at some point, and destroys everything.
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04-23-2018, 02:35 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJMartin
The % hit rate for that range will maintain it's rate sporadically. Like flipping a coin will ultimately produce a .5 rate with frequent streaks on either side. I wouldn't put any faith in this endeavor, it is similar to betting when a win is perceived to be "due".
I created a system based on this principle for craps; wait for a 7 to roll then place the 6 and 8, remove both when either 6 or 8 hits and then wait for 7 again and start over. Eventually a streak of 7's occurs, which is infrequent but will happen at some point, and destroys everything.
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Hey JJ
Yeah, it makes me want to go back to prior months and get the hit rates for each month for previous years and compare
It could be some months are just better than others for whatever reason but it would be interesting to see the prior hit rates over the course of time
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04-26-2018, 10:05 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
The final month at Aqueduct for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 saw a nice spike on the last day of the season!!!
It was the only time there was a spike after a day with 4 wins!!!
Belmont's Index should be interesting!!!
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The Belmont Index for Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as a group was not what I was expecting
There are not as many spikes as I would have hoped.
I guess since Aqueduct was only running 3 times a week at, one point, the spikes from 3 wins to 5 or 6 wins were more emphatic
However, since Belmont runs more often and with more races, the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as a group were winning at a rate of about 3 to 4 per day which didn't yield as much of a spike as I was initially hoping
I suspect it will be much the same this year but I will continue to track it for this season
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04-29-2018, 11:39 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont for 2018
There were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 yesterday I suspect that number will drop significantly today!!!
I should get the upside down v shape today /\ will have to wait until Wednesday to see if there is a spike after today!!!
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 04-29-2018 1st race 1 Mar Vista Miguel (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R Crichton 6/5# Turf
2 04-29-2018 1st race 6 Shiraz (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs M J Maker 9/5# Turf
3 04-29-2018 2nd race 1 Operator (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile W I Mott 6/5# Dirt
4 04-29-2018 2nd race 1A Maimo (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile C Summers 6/5# Dirt
5 04-29-2018 2nd race 6 Champagne Papi (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile A C Adsit 5/2# Dirt
6 04-29-2018 3rd race 1 Crimson Frost (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
7 04-29-2018 3rd race 3 Caledonia Road (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 1/2# Dirt
8 04-29-2018 4th race 2 Catch a Cab (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M E Casse 6/5# Turf
9 04-29-2018 5th race 1 Consensus Thinking (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs C C Brown 9/5# Dirt
10 04-29-2018 5th race 3 Ajnadeen (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
11 04-29-2018 6th race 4 Eloweasel (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs D G Donk 9/5# Turf
12 04-29-2018 6th race 7 First Appeal (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 7/5# Turf
13 04-29-2018 7th race 3 Straightaway May (FL) Claiming Seven Furlongs W A Ward 2/1# Dirt
14 04-29-2018 8th race 1 Stormy Victoria (FR) Stakes Six Furlongs C Clement 7/5# Turf
15 04-29-2018 9th race 4 La Manche (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 8/5# Turf
16 04-29-2018 9th race 7 Run for Boston (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J T Ryerson 5/2# Turf
Let's see what this group does today!!!
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05-01-2018, 11:39 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: White Plains, NY
Posts: 5,315
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There is one use for this chart I can see.
Would there be a better chance for a track bias on days when few ML faves won? When form is losing, a bias could be one reason why.
At least we can investigate those days when ML faves win 0-2 races.
__________________
andicap
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05-01-2018, 06:25 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andicap
There is one use for this chart I can see.
Would there be a better chance for a track bias on days when few ML faves won? When form is losing, a bias could be one reason why.
At least we can investigate those days when ML faves win 0-2 races.
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Hey Andi
Yeah I’m just trying to see if there is a spike on a day where the Morning Line Favorites as a group had a bad day or two previously at Belmont
So I’m looking to see if I get that upside down v /\ shape for a spike or some shape close to it in a graph
On Sunday, I was thinking there would be a sharp decline since there were 6 that won from this group the day before which was Saturday
However, I was wrong, there were 5 winners from this group on Sunday so the decline from 6 was only -1 in this case 5 which is not as sharp of a decline as I expected
So I’m trying to see if there is some consistency in either going with the Morning Line Favorites or in going against them as a group based on what happened on previous racing days
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-01-2018 at 06:28 PM.
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05-03-2018, 04:35 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Started charting the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont for 2018
There were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 yesterday I suspect that number will drop significantly today!!!
I should get the upside down v shape today /\ will have to wait until Wednesday to see if there is a spike after today!!!
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 04-29-2018 1st race 1 Mar Vista Miguel (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R Crichton 6/5# Turf
2 04-29-2018 1st race 6 Shiraz (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs M J Maker 9/5# Turf
3 04-29-2018 2nd race 1 Operator (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile W I Mott 6/5# Dirt
4 04-29-2018 2nd race 1A Maimo (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile C Summers 6/5# Dirt
5 04-29-2018 2nd race 6 Champagne Papi (KY) Maiden Claiming One Mile A C Adsit 5/2# Dirt
6 04-29-2018 3rd race 1 Crimson Frost (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
7 04-29-2018 3rd race 3 Caledonia Road (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 1/2# Dirt
8 04-29-2018 4th race 2 Catch a Cab (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M E Casse 6/5# Turf
9 04-29-2018 5th race 1 Consensus Thinking (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs C C Brown 9/5# Dirt
10 04-29-2018 5th race 3 Ajnadeen (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
11 04-29-2018 6th race 4 Eloweasel (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs D G Donk 9/5# Turf
12 04-29-2018 6th race 7 First Appeal (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 7/5# Turf
13 04-29-2018 7th race 3 Straightaway May (FL) Claiming Seven Furlongs W A Ward 2/1# Dirt
14 04-29-2018 8th race 1 Stormy Victoria (FR) Stakes Six Furlongs C Clement 7/5# Turf
15 04-29-2018 9th race 4 La Manche (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 8/5# Turf
16 04-29-2018 9th race 7 Run for Boston (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J T Ryerson 5/2# Turf
Let's see what this group does today!!!
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There was only a slight tick downward from last Sunday's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 but you did get 5 winners from the group
I suspect that today the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will take another step in the downward direction from among these today:
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-03-2018 1st race 5 Mae Never No (IRE) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs W A Ward 5/2# Dirt
2 05-03-2018 1st race 6 Give Me a Hug (NY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 6/5# Dirt
3 05-03-2018 2nd race 2 Change of Venue (KY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
4 05-03-2018 2nd race 5 Brideys Kitten (KY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs T Albertrani 5/2# Dirt
5 05-03-2018 3rd race 5 Almithmaar (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile K P McLaughlin 8/5# Dirt
6 05-03-2018 3rd race 6 Earned Success (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C C Brown 9/5# Dirt
7 05-03-2018 4th race 4 No Limit Babe (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Turf
8 05-03-2018 5th race 1 The Cake Is a Lie (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs A Arriaga 5/2# Dirt
9 05-03-2018 5th race 5 Loose (FL) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
10 05-03-2018 6th race 5 Magari (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs H J Bond 2/1# Dirt
11 05-03-2018 6th race 6 Bowl of Kisses (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
12 05-03-2018 7th race 6 Conquest Bigluck E (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles G P Gullo 6/5# Dirt
13 05-03-2018 8th race 1 Vortex Road (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles B N Levine 8/5# Turf
14 05-03-2018 8th race 1A Unbridledadventure (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles B N Levine 8/5# Turf
15 05-03-2018 8th race 2 Talkn Til Midnight (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles L Rice 2/1# Turf
16 05-03-2018 9th race 11 Fact Check (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs J Servis 2/1# Turf
17 05-03-2018 9th race 5 Go Big Or Go Home (KY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 8/5# Turf
I haven't been checking today but let's see how they do!!!
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05-04-2018, 08:57 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Once again, there were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont yesterday so I am expecting a significant drop today!!!
I should get that downward slope today \ which might complete the upside down v shape or /\ and we look for the possible spike tomorrow!!!
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was up +1 from yesterday but I was looking for the big crash although it could come today!!!
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-04-2018 1st race 1 Social Fan (WV) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
2 05-04-2018 1st race 1A Flat Rate (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
3 05-04-2018 2nd race 1 Regal Dame (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 2/1# Turf
4 05-04-2018 2nd race 4 La Piu Bella (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 7/5# Turf
5 05-04-2018 2nd race 3 Salty Smile (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 9/5# Turf
6 05-04-2018 3rd race 6 Hyndford (KY) Starter Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 2/5# Dirt
7 05-04-2018 4th race 1 Miko (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-04-2018 4th race 3 Hardly Mate (NY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 2/1# Turf
9 05-04-2018 5th race 2 Sower (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs L Rice 6/5# Dirt
10 05-04-2018 5th race 5 Posse Needed (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs M A Hennig 5/2# Dirt
11 05-04-2018 6th race 7 Fiduciary Values (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile C C Brown 5/2# Dirt
12 05-04-2018 7th race 4 Benefactor (KY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 5/2# Turf
13 05-04-2018 8th race 1 Hard Study (KY) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 8/5# Dirt
14 05-04-2018 9th race 4 Curtis (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 8/5# Dirt
15 05-04-2018 9th race 8 Toohottoevenspeak (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 2/1# Dirt
Let's see what this group does today!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-04-2018 at 08:59 AM.
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05-05-2018, 10:26 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Once again, there were 6 winners with Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont yesterday so I am expecting a significant drop today!!!
I should get that downward slope today \ which might complete the upside down v shape or /\ and we look for the possible spike tomorrow!!!
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was up +1 from yesterday but I was looking for the big crash although it could come today!!!
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-04-2018 1st race 1 Social Fan (WV) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
2 05-04-2018 1st race 1A Flat Rate (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
3 05-04-2018 2nd race 1 Regal Dame (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 2/1# Turf
4 05-04-2018 2nd race 4 La Piu Bella (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 7/5# Turf
5 05-04-2018 2nd race 3 Salty Smile (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 9/5# Turf
6 05-04-2018 3rd race 6 Hyndford (KY) Starter Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 2/5# Dirt
7 05-04-2018 4th race 1 Miko (KY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-04-2018 4th race 3 Hardly Mate (NY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 2/1# Turf
9 05-04-2018 5th race 2 Sower (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs L Rice 6/5# Dirt
10 05-04-2018 5th race 5 Posse Needed (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs M A Hennig 5/2# Dirt
11 05-04-2018 6th race 7 Fiduciary Values (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile C C Brown 5/2# Dirt
12 05-04-2018 7th race 4 Benefactor (KY) Claiming One Mile M J Maker 5/2# Turf
13 05-04-2018 8th race 1 Hard Study (KY) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 8/5# Dirt
14 05-04-2018 9th race 4 Curtis (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs G P Gullo 8/5# Dirt
15 05-04-2018 9th race 8 Toohottoevenspeak (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 2/1# Dirt
Let's see what this group does today!!!
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There were only 3 winners yesterday from this group which is what we suspected
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -3 from yesterday as there were only 3 winners from this group which we suspected and we now have the upside down v shape /\
5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) beat other MLFI's 2 to 1
There are 16 horses today with Morning Lines less than 3-1 there could be a spike today of 5 or more since there are 12 races and I would suspect that most if not all of the 5 would be on the Dirt from today's group:
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-05-2018 1st race 4 Summer Punch (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 1/1# Dirt
2 05-05-2018 1st race 5 Jump for Joy (PA) Claiming Six Furlongs C Baker 8/5# Dirt
3 05-05-2018 2nd race 5 Grand Valour (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
4 05-05-2018 3rd race 1 Mister Hayes (FL) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
5 05-05-2018 4th race 7 Guerriere (IRE) Allowance Six Furlongs C C Brown 5/2# Turf
6 05-05-2018 4th race 8 Misericordia (GB) Allowance Six Furlongs A E Goldberg 2/1# Turf
7 05-05-2018 5th race 1 Fast Getaway (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
8 05-05-2018 6th race 3 Holy Helena (ON) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles J A Jerkens 7/5# Turf
9 05-05-2018 6th race 6 Santa Monica (GB) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
10 05-05-2018 7th race 3 Big Guy Ian (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 8/5# Dirt
11 05-05-2018 9th race 3 Patternrecognition (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
12 05-05-2018 9th race 6 Wonderful Light (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
13 05-05-2018 10th race 8 Silverwave (FR) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
14 05-05-2018 11th race 2 Cloud Computing (KY) Stakes One Mile C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
15 05-05-2018 11th race 5 Tommy Macho (KY) Stakes One Mile T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
16 05-05-2018 12th race 11 Pence (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
17 05-05-2018 12th race 13 Playwright (NY) (MTO) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D Gargan 9/5# Turf
Let's see what happens!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-05-2018 at 10:37 AM.
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