i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Mine That Bird was a tough horse to come up with in the Derby if you were trying to come up with the most probable winner, but it was very easy to know he was better than looked on paper. It just wasn't that easy to think he'd also move forward a lot off that fast paced race at Sunland.

He got a very good trip in the Derby, but his races in the Peakness and Belmont proved his win in the Derby was not just some fluke result of the off track and rail skimming ride. He had gotten much better also.

He was what he was.

He was a lower quality stakes horse that peaked at the perfect moment, was competitive in all 3 Triple Crown races at that higher level, and then never developed further. So he was never competitive against older stakes horses.

Couldn't disagree more.

1. He was likely somewhere between 9th and 17th best Derby Contender
2. He got one of the all time EXTREME examples of a brilliant impactful ride by a jockey
3. Even that brilliant ride was only possible because of the great setup and mediocre Derby crop (from memory Quality Road didn't run, I Want Revenge had some wierd scratch, and logical Pioneerof The Nile just wasn't your typical Baffert freakshow)
4. MTB then ran a non-threatening 2nd in the Preakness to edge out 'Musket Man'
5. MTB then made a gimmicky premature middle-move before flattening out to finish 3rd in an awful edition of the Belmont Stakes

Extreme example of a brilliant ride from a jockey that impacted a race and the right conditions to pull it off.

[Robert Fischer]

Here's another unpopular opinion for you guys to consider (not that you consider the cognitive dissonance MTB stuff);

TENFOLD's Preakness was much more interesting than BRAVAZO's Preakness.

Why??

Because at one point in the Preakness, Tenfold actually had a chance of winning. Bravazo never looked a possible winner at any stage in the Preakness unless the finish line had got up and run away.

Yet the vast majority here are more interested in Bravazo's Preakness.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

'Good' if you mean a decent G3/Ungraded-Stakes type.
'Not Good' if you mean a top-tier 3yo.

• Broke MDN 2nd start in a 62500 Maiden Claimer @ 9/1
• Won 2 ungraded stakes and the G3 Grey with Bris Speed figures of 88,89,85 each was a 6 horse field
• Was dead last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile while posting the highest speed figure that he managed his entire Pre-Derby resume (90 Bris)
• Went off 7/2 (2nd choice or so?) In the unheralded Sunland prep ungraded stakes and finished 2nd. Can't entirely trust comments, but reads "2nd Best"
• Did not take money in Sunland Derby (13/1), made a middle-move into a hot pace coming from mid-pack to 3rd/2nd and flattened out to 4th late. 88 bris speed figure, but at least a reasonably decent pace adversity
• Had now racked up only the 12th best earnings out of 20 Derby entrants, in spite of winning some soft stakes at Woodbine to start his career
• Bris Prime Power was now 17th out of 20 Derby entrants
• Derby Morning line was 50/1
• Poor speed figures relative to the Derby contenders
• 4/6 on Synthetic at that point and 0/2 on Dirt (but did show his only decent pace figures on Dirt in the Sunland Derby)
• Running Style was "E/P 4" (as opposed to the "S 0" Borel would use in the Derby)

You guys continue to remember him positively and defend him, but he was not a top-tier Derby contender by any means.
17th best if you go by the sloppy inaccurate Bris Prime Power.
Now, if you really favored some of his strong suits (good pace in the Sunland Derby and a nose for the wire in some cheaper stakes early on), while ignoring his non-contending speed figures, you could make a realistic case that instead of 17th best, that he was actually 9th or 10th best in that field and a mildly interesting long shot at a big price.

I really dislike this kind of redboarding, which I also remember seeing after Arcangues won the BC Classic.

If this constitutes great form, how come we don't see horses with these kinds of records winning the Derby every year by open lengths?

MTB's Derby speed figure was something like a 15 point improvement from anything he had run before. His Preakness was also 10 points better than any of his pre-Derby races. He was kicking around minor stakes at 2 and 3 and had never run a race that would have come close to winning or even finishing in the money in a TC race.

[Tom]

You guys continue to remember him positively and defend him, but he was not a top-tier Derby contender by any means.

Well, he was obviously a top TC horse because for 2/3 of the TC races, the only one to beat him was Rachael, so anything good you remember about the top TC horse that year, remember that! Must have been a bad crop.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

If this constitutes great form, how come we don't see horses with these kinds of records winning the Derby every year by open lengths?

MTB's Derby speed figure was something like a 15 point improvement from anything he had run before. His Preakness was also 10 points better than any of his pre-Derby races.

What is does show is that 3 year olds can and do improve quite rapidly in a time-space during this stage of their growth and often "jump up", lights go on, etc.

I was at Oaklawn the day Creator won (a friend who publishes a sheet and I literally RAN to the ticket teller 2 MTP after seeing him in post parade) but everyone was pretty much looking "dazed and confused", having wagered Cupid and Whitmore, when Creator won the AR Derby......12-1 or so.......who still went off at even higher odds for the KY Derby and probably would have done better had he not had an EXTREMELY troubled trip (which would have been an appropriate "throw out race" if you were trying to analyze him.) So of course he goes off at 16-1 in the Belmont, based on that trip in the KY Derby and those who could see he was "peaking" during this small period of time (sort of like MTB) were rewarded.

(that would not include me as I did not think he would win the Belmont). He took forever to break his maiden if I remember correctly.......BUT once he put it together, he had it going on.

[Robert Fischer]

I've never liked BLENDED CITIZEN, at all, but he is a horse who seems to be peaking.

He eats up ground in the stretch.

I think his value is slightly hurt by the fact that VINO ROSSO is so damned good, and is a similar running style. VINO ROSSO looked prime to run a belated 3rd or so in the Derby, but he didn't fire. I don't think the blinkers and the muddy-kickback behind a wall of horses was a good mix.

Maybe these two grinders will be passing tired rivals to fill out 2/4ths of the Belmont superfecta?

[clicknow]

You guys continue to remember him positively and defend him, but he was not a top-tier Derby contender by any means.

But defending "a top tier derby contender" who doesn't hit the board is worthy of defending?

......we've all done it but it means there is something, somewhere, in one's handicapping process that "didn't work".

Every year we have horses who are entirely ignored by the talking heads and the clockers and the commentators and everyone else. There were about 4 horses in the Preakness this year that I literally had to squeeze my ear to the ground to hear ANYTHING about......it was almost as if they weren't even scheduled to run in the race.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

VINO ROSSO is so damned good

So it doesn't concern you that Vino Rosso is working 4F for a 1-1/2 mile race

Other than his dam being 1/2 sis to Commissioner, please tell me what is "so damned good" about him?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by clicknow

So it doesn't concern you that Vino Rosso is working 4F for a 1-1/2 mile race

Other than his dam being 1/2 sis to Commissioner, please tell me what is "so damned good" about him?

Justify is also going to try to get one 4F work in if his hoof is OK.

Vino is doing two 4F works because he's fresh after he had the luxury of skipping the Preakness to point to this Belmont race.

Vino Rosso is so damned good because he's a really good animal. I've watched his races and his workouts and it stands out. Justify is a special once-in-a-generation type of athlete, but Vino Rosso is good enough to be among the top several animals in any given year.

He isn't a perfect jack-of-all-trades. He's a specialist. He's a relentless grinder. His tactical speed is below average. His game is wearing-down his rivals with the help of pace and distance.

Vino Rosso has some really weird form:

• Sam F / Tampa D. = very slow paced races
• Wood Memorial = DREAM TRIP
• Kentucky Derby = sitting behind a tidal wave of mud kickback

[clicknow]

Robert I was concerned about him since some onlookers said he was melting down in paddock before the race, literally shaking from nerves.......apparently from the large crowds? So I kinda wasn't expecting him to run well in the Derby, regardless of the mud. I wasn't there in person so cannot corroborate. He certainly seems like he has some stamina but for me, at least, a nice long grinder type gallop in the BEL would require a "relaxed horse" so those reports did worry me.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Here's another unpopular opinion for you guys to consider (not that you consider the cognitive dissonance MTB stuff);

TENFOLD's Preakness was much more interesting than BRAVAZO's Preakness.

Why??

Because at one point in the Preakness, Tenfold actually had a chance of winning. Bravazo never looked a possible winner at any stage in the Preakness unless the finish line had got up and run away.

Yet the vast majority here are more interested in Bravazo's Preakness.

bravazo wouldn't have been n the money if GM didn't push the issue.

obv the belmont is a different race but bravazo will be seriously overbet

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

obv the belmont is a different race but bravazo will be seriously overbet

Yes, for sure, not only because of this Preakness but because of Paynter and Oxbow........I call 'em the triplets.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If you think a Bravazo type of horse in a weak 3yo crop is 'so good' than we agree.


--opinions on 2009 Preakness/Belmont--

2009 Preakness was worse than the 2018 Preakness, but not by a ton.

A prime Rachel ran similar to an 80% gut-it-out Justify

Where do you get this "80%" from?

His Preakness was exactly like every other race he's won. His performance was identical to every other race of his, except he was forced to run the mile in 1:36.10. And he almost lost. Before the race, Bob said he was 100%, better than Pharoah, able to recover in milliseconds, better than Pharoah, oh my gosh, best horse he ever trained, better than Pharoah, foot is a-ok, etc. Wouldn't he know? He says it now too. What % would you say Justify will be at post-time?


Everyone says that Good Magic committed suicide and that Bravazo and Tenfold, who were right there with them from the half on, only got close because Good magic softened Justify up (strangely, his pace had no impact on them, since they were right there too, but were able to finish).

Big Money Mike would surely have been able to tell if the horse he was on was 20% weaker than normal, right? Knowing his horse was 20% weaker, why would he engage in the world's slowest speed duel? Why not drop back and press Good Magic? Conserve that 80%.

I have no clue what to think about Bravazo, he stupifies me, but Tenfold ran exactly like I expected him to, as did Good Magic and Justify to be honest. Good Magic, Tenfold, Justify all at the wire within a length is what I expected. Of them, I went with the one with the best odds. The Preakness was very formful, unless you expected more from Justify.

*************

Rachel ran almost a second faster than Justify 1:55.08 vs 1:55.93. I know Rachel was fast, because unlike Justify, she never had to play fast and loose with her raw times. She ran the 3rd fastest Haskell ever, 1:47.21, only Bet Twice and Majestic Light ran it faster.

MTB was a wonder, a little blip of Disney-esque fantasy, but Rachel was Rachel. Her Preakness isn't judged on MTB, MTB's is judged on hers.

If Justify had to try to run 9f in 1:47.21, he'd faint dead away.

Its funny that when horses really are fast, their collected times speak for themselves. When they aren't, their figs must.

Its also funny the different cultures at different boards, over at Thorograph it was mentioned that Justify isn't even as fast as Gunnevera, though they didn't specify if that was at 80% or 100%

FWIW I don't get anyone who demeans MTB, a $9,000 horse that was only about an inch taller than the official horse/pony cut-off point, that had one of the best 5 weeks in Spring of any horse in the last 15 years. It was a great TC, a 50-1 long shot and a filly. Come on, when is that going to happen again? MTB aquitted himself admirably. He was a cool little horse.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by papillon

If Justify had to try to run 9f in 1:47.21, he'd faint dead away.

His Santa Anita Derby time was actually tremendously fast, and I didn't need a Beyer figure to know that. The Santa Anita track has slowed down more than 2 seconds in route races over the past couple of years, as they have tried to give it a better cushion and make it safer to reduce breakdowns. I know this simply because I watch all the races and keep track of the final times.

Had Justify gotten the chance to run over the 2014 track that Game on Dude ran 1:58 flat over and California Chrome ran 1:47 2/5 over, he would have run a very fast time in the Santa Anita Derby.

But this year? Look at the other major 9 furlong stakes on the Santa Anita calendar:

The Santa Margarita, won by Fault in 1:50 2/5.

The Californian, won by Dr. Dorr in 1:49 4/5.

Note that both of those were big races won by older horses. Justify's 1:49 3/5 looks pretty good, doesn't it?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by papillon

FWIW I don't get anyone who demeans MTB, a $9,000 horse that was only about an inch taller than the official horse/pony cut-off point, that had one of the best 5 weeks in Spring of any horse in the last 15 years. It was a great TC, a 50-1 long shot and a filly. Come on, when is that going to happen again? MTB aquitted himself admirably. He was a cool little horse.

A cool little horse.

I was bemusing if I could get a retired racehorse for pleasure riding or just a buddy, I would get MTB. He had a delightful personality too.