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Big Brown and Ground Loss
I'm bringing up a mildy controversial topic. I am curious as to what people think in general and specifically about the Derby.
Most experienced handicappers believe that BB's effort was better than it looks because he lost so much ground. What they might disagree about is whether or not you should objectively add 7 lengths to his speed figure because of that ground loss. (7 lengths was the estimate I saw at another site)
Some handicappers believe that not all ground loss is the same.
For example......
If the front runners kill themselves in a duel and an outside closer loafs up to them while wide, that's a lot different than if they go slow early and he is straining to keep up with them on the turn because the pace is just starting to pick up.
If a front runner is dueling wide on the first turn of a route, that's different than being wide while dropping back near the back of the pack.
Some turns are tighter than others and make it tougher on wide horses.
Some turns are banked differently.
Sometimes the inside paths are not as fast as the outside paths or vice versa.
IMHO, the outside paths were not a huge disadvantage at CD on Derby day. The rail was not "dead" per se, but lots of horses were rallying wide on the turn and doing reasonably well. I'm not saying that ground loss was no disadvantage, but if you ask me, BB's performance was better than his Beyer, but not nearly a full 7 lengths better because of the ground loss.
Any opinions?
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