Andy Serling Win ROI-AQU Inner Track Meet

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I could easily spend an hour on that race and not feel very good about my selection.

I totally agree....

Anyone have a race they want to discuss for Thursday? and Friday?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I could easily spend an hour on that race and not feel very good about my selection.

In yet another attempt to alleviate overzealous headaching over competitive races by suspect horses I had a duh moment the other day. Just write down the % strength of opinion on the race. 75% or less=moderate bet at best. 80% or more double down and score. Wasn't deliberately trying to instill the corny humor but this little notation on my bet lines puts the decision making into perspective.

[Maximillion]

I think the 8 Lakeside Sunset can do a little better than her last few would suggest.My guess is she will probably be ridden more aggressively here as thats her best and likely only hope. Lots of chances here- but confident she can run well in this spot with one of her better efforts,and at likely double digit odds cant have everything perfect.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I totally agree....

Anyone have a race they want to discuss for Thursday? and Friday?

This is my thinking before scratches and seeing the early races (quick look).

There looks to be enough speed to keep the pace between honest and fast. Most of the speeds seem capable of sitting just off the pace and picking up a horse or two. Those are always the trickiest for me because it's not always clear to me which ones will go.

Pretty Enuff likes to win and could get a perfect trip sitting inside just off a potentially fast pace.

Riot Worthy finished between two very nice fillies last out, seems to be improving, and Charleton Baker is very good off these short layoffs I think she's the best horse, but coming back at 6F "feels" a little like a prep or at least not ideal even though this horse has won sprinting. At 7F should be a clear choice for me.

Non Finisce Mai was in the mix early in a race that fell apart, eased back, and then was wide on the turn against better. She ran better than it looks. Previous was good, but her record is kind of gappy with layoffs (most likely she has some issues). So who knows how she's going to run off the layoff. If she can fire an "A" race she's better than she looks.

Little Bear Cat was improving, but her last race wasn't as good, she's coming back off a layoff, and this is not exactly a very good move for Cannizzo. Could benefit from a fast pace if all the speed stays in.

Splendid Gold is the kind of horse I'd often be interested in playing because she was claimed by Toscono (which I like). Offsetting that is she's coming out of a race where she controlled the pace and was probably not as good as she looked. Normally I might be tempted to take her off the claim anyway because she has other good back races that could win here, but Toscano hasn't been as sharp with his claims lately.

Kristina's Persona benefited a little from the fast pace last out, but she's not an easy toss or anything

Roman Ceres is a pass for me, but it's not like I would be shocked if she came up with a good race off a couple of very fast works.

Lakeside Sunset is a pass for me.

E Warfare will probably be out there winging early and seemed to be improving, but I can take her off that last given her prior races weren't good enough either.

Uncle Sourthern is the kind of horse I'd usually have some interest in because she stalked a fast pace, put away the favorite, and ran quite well last out. But there's plenty of speed in this race before scratches and from post 10 it's not very clear what kind of trip she's going to get.

I guess I'd be most interested in #2, and #5. #10 is also interesting if she can work out a trip and a little #1 to perhaps get a rail trip off the fast pace. Maybe that changes after we the scratches and how the track is playing. Basically my opinion comes close to matching the ML. #passhandicapper

[Robert Fischer]

10 Uncle Southern is the really important thing in the race to understand, and I don't understand her well enough to play along. I wouldn't be surprised if she wins routinely, or if she tires badly.


The strongest thing that I can say about this race = "I don't know."

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

10 Uncle Southern is the really important thing in the race to understand, and I don't understand her well enough to play along. I wouldn't be surprised if she wins routinely, or if she tires badly.


The strongest thing that I can say about this race = "I don't know."

We can never know. IMHO, here's why.

The 10 was beat last time while being hustled 3 wide the whole way. The horse wpb (won the pace battle) but lost the war late.

Connections and/or jock might say let's rate a bit today and hope the 3&5 hurt eachother.

Connections of the 3 and 5 might think the same.

The 9 might be quarter horsed to the lead etc etc etc.

It's a race where many variables cant take place and totally alter the outcome.

Good race to cast a wide net in the picks and root for value OR get hurt by the 2 or 10.

Good race to make many different types of wagers (supers, tri's ex's) based on value, where even if you lose, you don't mind as it was a solid value filled wager. (If you have some sort of opinions).

Card 5 of these in a pick 5 and you might/should get a $100,000 payoff for $2.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

In yet another attempt to alleviate overzealous headaching over competitive races by suspect horses I had a duh moment the other day. Just write down the % strength of opinion on the race. 75% or less=moderate bet at best. 80% or more double down and score. Wasn't deliberately trying to instill the corny humor but this little notation on my bet lines puts the decision making into perspective.

I 100% agree CincyHorseplayer!

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Non Finisce Mai was in the mix early in a race that fell apart, eased back, and then was wide on the turn against better. She ran better than it looks. Previous was good, but her record is kind of gappy with layoffs (most likely she has some issues). So who knows how she's going to run off the layoff. If she can fire an "A" race she's better than she looks.

And that, EMD4ME, is pretty much why I tabbed her to watch, but the layoff and the possible issues make the bet dodgy. I will demand a big price, and I'm sorry I picked a monkey puzzle of a race.

tlg has the race 7-5-2-10, incidentally.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

And that, EMD4ME, is pretty much why I tabbed her to watch, but the layoff and the possible issues make the bet dodgy. I will demand a big price, and I'm sorry I picked a monkey puzzle of a race.

tlg has the race 7-5-2-10, incidentally.

Wed 12/14 Top Picks by TLG:

Race 1 3 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 2 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3 6 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 4 7 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5 7 - 10 - 5 - 4
Race 6 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 7 7 - 5 - 2 - 10
Race 8 2 - 7 - 4 - 1


I like his gusto with picking the 7 in race 7. 12/1 HFC (2/2) who has nice WO for the return. Can't go wrong with that pick in a skullbuster.


Don't be SORRY! Stimulating race to work with, good race to pick.

Good luck making money tomorrow!

[EMD4ME]

Since we don't have TLG's picks for Wed thru Sat of last week, I think the Sunday 0/8 abberation should be wiped out.

Let's start with this wed 12/14/16. I will unfortunately (really fortunately for PA nation ) be tied up tomorrow from 8 am till 11 pm so, I would appreciate anyone's help with this thread tomorrow and overall.

[arw629]

I landed on the 7 as well as it is hard to ignore the inner form and recent works....my 2nd pick is the 6 who I think might be able to trip out behind those inside speeds...who do you all think goes favored?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

We can never know. IMHO, here's why.

The 10 was beat last time while being hustled 3 wide the whole way. The horse wpb (won the pace battle) but lost the war late.

Connections and/or jock might say let's rate a bit today and hope the 3&5 hurt eachother.

Connections of the 3 and 5 might think the same.

The 9 might be quarter horsed to the lead etc etc etc.

It's a race where many variables cant take place and totally alter the outcome.

Good race to cast a wide net in the picks and root for value OR get hurt by the 2 or 10.

Good race to make many different types of wagers (supers, tri's ex's) based on value, where even if you lose, you don't mind as it was a solid value filled wager. (If you have some sort of opinions).

Card 5 of these in a pick 5 and you might/should get a $100,000 payoff for $2.

Jose seems to get a run no matter what (whether the pace inexplicably fails to materialize and he jogs on the lead, or whether we see pace and an E/P style 1st run).

The pace is always a legit consideration, and this race has potential to heat up, but I don't think there will be a huge pace dependency w/ 10.
I figure he likely runs a winning style race either way, and either stops or keeps going.

I can't take your 4 in here , even as a long shot.

Riot Worthy (is she the 2?) is one possible 'by default' type, if the favorite stops, but she is just awful value. She wanted to quit so badly last time, but the race carried her to 2nd. StatebredAllowance runners with pretty form are hardly the road to riches in OC (even inner-A).

Irad's horse (6? krista? or whatever) is another 'by default' type. She's a little bit uglier than Riot Worthy , which is good, but you are really being subject to a lot of randomness when you start leaning on lesser quality types to 'style' their way up into a scenario.

What do you make of Splendid Gold the 5?
Looks like a candidate for a disappearing act to me, and I think she'll go off ('cold') higher than her 4/1 ml.
I could always be wrong on both counts.

Roman Ceres would be interesting in a route race. Could be a bet back stretching out next time, if she runs a nice even race behind an 8/5 Uncle Southern.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Jose seems to get a run no matter what (whether the pace inexplicably fails to materialize and he jogs on the lead, or whether we see pace and an E/P style 1st run).

The pace is always a legit consideration, and this race has potential to heat up, but I don't think there will be a huge pace dependency w/ 10.
I figure he likely runs a winning style race either way, and either stops or keeps going.

I can't take your 4 in here , even as a long shot.

Riot Worthy (is she the 2?) is one possible 'by default' type, if the favorite stops, but she is just awful value. She wanted to quit so badly last time, but the race carried her to 2nd. StatebredAllowance runners with pretty form are hardly the road to riches in OC (even inner-A).

Irad's horse (6? krista? or whatever) is another 'by default' type. She's a little bit uglier than Riot Worthy , which is good, but you are really being subject to a lot of randomness when you start leaning on lesser quality types to 'style' their way up into a scenario.

What do you make of Splendid Gold the 5?
Looks like a candidate for a disappearing act to me, and I think she'll go off ('cold') higher than her 4/1 ml.
I could always be wrong on both counts.

Roman Ceres would be interesting in a route race. Could be a bet back stretching out next time, if she runs a nice even race behind an 8/5 Uncle Southern.

I agree that odds are Jose gets to decide his trip from the outside and will get a clean trip.

If I was a win better or picking 1 horse to win, I can't bet the 6. Price will be too short with Irad on and I don't like how tall she is. I need her to prove she can win on the inner in a field with a possible logjam in the 2nd flight.

I am not in love with the 5 as she jogged her opening quarter last time. Can happen again, as at NYRA, you could run a Kentucky Derby with 20 horses in it on a speed favoring gold rail track as the 16th race of 16 and the jocks might choke out, with feet on the dashboard as 1 horse jogs wire to wire.

I think there is no wrong selection here. As long as you demand value. Especially if you are picking 1 horse on top. That's my humble .02

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

We can never know. IMHO, here's why.

The 10 was beat last time while being hustled 3 wide the whole way. The horse wpb (won the pace battle) but lost the war late.

Connections and/or jock might say let's rate a bit today and hope the 3&5 hurt eachother.

Connections of the 3 and 5 might think the same.

The 9 might be quarter horsed to the lead etc etc etc.

It's a race where many variables cant take place and totally alter the outcome.

Good race to cast a wide net in the picks and root for value OR get hurt by the 2 or 10.

Good race to make many different types of wagers (supers, tri's ex's) based on value, where even if you lose, you don't mind as it was a solid value filled wager. (If you have some sort of opinions).

Card 5 of these in a pick 5 and you might/should get a $100,000 payoff for $2.

It's just one race you brought up---requiring 1 Win selection. Pick or Pass.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

It's just one race you brought up---requiring 1 Win selection. Pick or Pass.

HUH?