Andy Serling Win ROI-AQU Inner Track Meet

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

There is more than ample evidence that TLG
is very good at his job. No question.

What is most newsworthy to me in this thread
is just how many horse players pay close attention
to the work of public handicappers.

One would think that 90% plus of posters on this site
have their own tried and trusted, kick ass, variety of
home grown speed figures that siphon pari-mutuel pools
with regularity. Computers crunching numbers, plus the
ever popular pencil and racing form methods that are legendary.

You mean to tell me that more people seek the opinions
of paid professionals than they are prone to admit?
Say it ain't so.................

Tycho Brahe 'talking down' the Ptolemaic Universe.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

With that said: Wednesday has an 8 race card on tap. If old man winter allows....

Who would like to pick a race and discuss it?

In scanning the entries prior to handicapping, one horse catches my eye.

NON FINISCE MAI in the 7th Gullo/Maragh 10/1

She is on my "follow" list, but I forget why. How about a discussion of this race?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

In scanning the entries prior to handicapping, one horse catches my eye.

NON FINISCE MAI in the 7th Gullo/Maragh 10/1

She is on my "follow" list, but I forget why. How about a discussion of this race?

I'd love to!

That was an interesting race. I hated the fave in her last start (Hot City Girl-coming off layoff) and remember betting against her because I was hoping for a good speed skirmish in the first quarter. Well that happened. (sorry for the 6 month old redboard).

Non Finisce Mai was caught 3 wide of 3 in a stressed position for at least 1/8 of the trip. Then was caught chasing hot fractions, hung 4 wide on the far turn AS the top 2 closers ran by underneath.

She was game as well in the lane, changing leads well and having heart to come back on to almost get 4th, surviving well vs. the 2 LPB (lost pace battle horses).

A respectable run vs MUCH better.

Which begs the question, why the freshening/layoff off of a solid effort vs. better?

Gullo going well, Rajiv is definitely making up for lost time. A lot to like.

EDIT: Vet Scr at the SPA in August. Adds to the mystery.

[Polish Navy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

OK...I'll do my best. And, since I consider you a friend of mine...I hope you won't take my remarks too personally.

Your timing with this thread is all wrong...because it comes on the heels of a recent rift between you and TLG on this board. You are trying to present this as a serious and unbiased inquiry into TLG's Aqueduct performance...but anyone who has been reading this board over the last several days is bound to question your motives here.

Now...I get paid to be observant, just as you are...and I'd like you to have the benefit of some of my observations here:

While TLG likes to adopt a confrontational posting style with some of us here...you are not one of the posters that he likes to target. In fact...he has repeatedly told us here what a "great guy" you are...and you yourself have acknowledged this in the past. The current argument between the two of you, which you have referred to as a "TLG attack", is, IMO, mainly driven NOT by TLG's comments towards you...but by YOUR comments toward him -- which have been of a much more "personal" nature. You have even gone as far as to blame TLG's "treatment" of you here as the main reason why you have drastically reduced your NYRA betting handle...which is an obvious exaggeration on your part. While your replies to him have been of a vitriolic nature...TLG has retained his composure when answering you...which proves that he has more respect for you than you give him credit for. Take my word for it...TLG can get a lot more "vitriolic" than he has shown in his interactions with you here.

Before you accuse me of being one of the many TLG "fans" here...please note that I have gotten into more than my share of arguments with TLG here...and I don't particularly care if he considers me a "great guy" or not. I try to call things just as I see them.

I am in complete aggreement with TLG when it comes to you being a "great guy"...but you seem to be after "widespread approval" here...and that isn't likely to happen. The more opinionated you get here, the more people will argue with your opinions...and you will have to get USED to that. That's what makes for interesting online discussions. And, when you start off by telling people here that you are the "purest soul that they are ever likely to meet"...and then you follow this up with wild emotional outbursts where you tell people that "you have nothing to learn from anyone here", while you yourself are "wasting your time on this board"...people are bound to become confused by your behavior -- because it looks too contradictory. The "purest souls" don't usually get bothered by trivial online arguments.

We are just gathering here to amuse ourselves, EMD...and we know that nothing major can result from our conversations here. The give-and-take that sometimes arises between us adds to the fun...and it should be taken in stride. You are taking our interactions here a bit too seriously, IMO...and you are allowing the occasional disagreements between us to dampen your mood. RELAX...and stop taking yourself so seriously.

Thus endeth the lesson.

Fascinating.
Brilliant actually.
Thank you Sir.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Polish Navy

Fascinating.
Brilliant actually.
Thank you Sir.

I hope this time your posts aren't deleted. I like having your type around

Thaskalos, this one is not a fan of the Shawshank Redemption

[EMD4ME]

Ocala Mike, please let me know, if you remember, why you liked this horse.

Any thoughts on the pace? Seems like a solid amount of speed in the race.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

In scanning the entries prior to handicapping, one horse catches my eye.

NON FINISCE MAI in the 7th Gullo/Maragh 10/1

She is on my "follow" list, but I forget why. How about a discussion of this race?

Definitely an interesting race at first glance. Seems like an easy race to make a case for almost everyone so could certainly find a nice play at the right price. Your filly here seems to fit that role and she's certainly interesting - she might be dangerous sustained speed (wonder if maybe she made your list for staying on pretty well in that tough spot after chasing a tough pace and even having to check out a bit when under pressure between rivals) - but doesn't exactly look like she's primed for a monster show off the shelf on paper. But who knows. I might put her on my list for next time.

I'm going to take a longer look at Splendid Gold and something tells me need to root extra hard for that 4-1 morning line. Only Uncle Southern has more wins (7) and I'm a full-blown sucker for horses like this that have basically one freaky good race over this inner surface under similar race conditions - and at was LAST meet at the most recent so at least it gets a little distortion in the form of recency and current form.

Yeah, this one has passed hands a few times lately and was up here when claimed two back and after a poor show on that day for the $40k, came right back off the claim to steal a statebred $25k pot of (if I'm not mistaken) around $50k. So while the handicapper might infer a negative move here, the reality from the horseman side of it is that they lost the $40k claim first time for $25k and, on the surface at least, still cleared $15k. Of course, the horse was in the barn for a month and the trainer got a nice $3k cut in all likelihood, the rider a nice share, the photographer, and the groom. But in the scheme of racetrack moves, its a winning move and a calculated one in my estimation, not a desperation move as a result of a regretful claim.

While often in these optional claimer combo races its kind of easy to gravitate towards those in on the allowance condition and not in for the tag - and rightfully so, logically at least, for the most part - and even if you do so unabashedly as habit this one still is tough to really blackball like that. She may not have ever been teasing divisional star-type ability, but she isn't one of those that tried to compete at this level unsuccessfully or with much effort getting through the conditions if she did so successfully and now is coming back for seconds after a long spell down at or near the bottom. She debuted with a full of maiden allowance statebreds and got beat a neck and though it did take a while and a drop to breed forty to get over the hump, she wasn't a bad maiden. Even the trip to Finger Lakes after winning her first two seems more like a protective move to go use an allowance condition to get the easy money rather than risk losing her or wait around to face tougher. Whatever, long story only mildly shorter: she seems like she has some inherent talent and isn't one of those fringe breed conditioned allowance caliber horses. Maybe she is in the tangible sense, as in what have you done for me lately, but under the hood the horsepower is there even if its been a number of miles since it ran quite right regularly.

Mercifully, I will now let you ponder your decision to suggest a discussion having waded through that gibberish and leave you with nothing more but regret.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Ocala Mike, please let me know, if you remember, why you liked this horse.

Any thoughts on the pace? Seems like a solid amount of speed in the race.

1st time in for a claim from long lay-off, not cranked with gapped mediocre works, looks like off-the-board to me.....There's 4 tough horses in this race who love the inner and figure, would be a real surprise if the 3 does anything noteworthy in this spot.

[Polish Navy]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I hope this time your posts aren't deleted. I like having your type around

Thaskalos, this one is not a fan of the Shawshank Redemption

No need to call Mr. Thaskalos to assist you EMD4ME. I'm new here, but let me say, I enjoy your posts.
I live in Manhattan, travel to Aqueduct quite regularly, and I'm almost positive we've met.

Yes, Shawshank Redemption is in my top 5 of all time.
Merry Christmas to you Sir.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Polish Navy

No need to call Mr. Thaskalos to assist you EMD4ME. I'm new here, but let me say, I enjoy your posts.
I live in Manhattan, travel to Aqueduct quite regularly, and I'm almost positive we've met.

Yes, Shawshank Redemption is in my top 5 of all time.
Merry Christmas to you Sir.

I wasn't calling in reinforcements....I don't have any back up here

I was refering to a post thaskalos made earlier. Regardless. I saw that you had posted a question in a thread asking something to the effect of:

Does EMD have any credibility? or something to that effect. I assume it was just another potshot at me. It was deleted.

Forgive me if I was wrong in my assessment.

That's great! Please say hello next time. I'd love to meet more of PA land.

Merry Christmas to you as well!

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

1st time in for a claim from long lay-off, not cranked with gapped mediocre works, looks like off-the-board to me.....There's 4 tough horses in this race who love the inner and figure, would be a real surprise if the 3 does anything noteworthy in this spot.

The more I looked for someone to take advantage of a pace set up, the more I don't like the closers. I cashed on the 4 once but that was with a total outside closer's bias at Belmont. I also think the rail horse isn't anything to write home about.

Nice wide open race. You can make a losing wager but make the right bet in a race like this.

[rsetup]

, Uncle Southern

, Pretty Enuff

Haven't played the AQU inner in ages.

[EasyGoer89]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

The more I looked for someone to take advantage of a pace set up, the more I don't like the closers. I cashed on the 4 once but that was with a total outside closer's bias at Belmont. I also think the rail horse isn't anything to write home about.

Nice wide open race. You can make a losing wager but make the right bet in a race like this.

i was digging in here for a 'one move closer' to take advantage of the entire field of speed/presser types.

Didn't find one.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EasyGoer89

i was digging in here for a 'one move closer' to take advantage of the entire field of speed/presser types.

Didn't find one.

Gate break and jock decisions will go a long way in this one (Especially the jocks of pps 3510).

[EMD4ME]

I know I'm babbling but in the interest of this race...........


This 4 has more of my attention now. Is a 3 year old in DEC, who's last FAST track Dirt fig was earned back on April 1st. Using Beyers, a 57, is no where near the peak figures of the others BUT APRIL to DEC is a long time (in terms of development/maturity).

When you add in the mud (IMHO bias assisted win in May) figure of a 70, this horse's A race can more than be enough for this field.

I have some interesting notes on this horse :

Jan 29-off beat slow, rushed up with a ton of speed, making winner move early and did so in the best part of the race.

Won in next start.

April 1st, IMHO poor rail but was so handy the entire half mile, rating well and finishing well when asked.

At this point, Little Bear Cat is my pick.