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12-16-2016, 09:06 AM
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#241
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Thankfully the letter L isn't NB's favorite letter.
Because if he threw an L in there , we'd have a problem !  |
LOL.....am I the only one that knows DIDO..(die-dough)...the singer? She sang "Here with me" ..."White Flag" ...Eminem sampled another of her tunes
There's a whole life out there away from those racing forms
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12-16-2016, 09:10 AM
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#242
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
LOL.....am I the only one that knows DIDO..(die-dough)...the singer? She sang "Here with me" ..."White Flag" ...Eminem sampled another of her tunes
There's a whole life out there away from those racing forms |
Yeah I knew that and thought your comment was pretty funny! I haven't heard the term "Ditto" used regularly since I was in 3rd grade by my teachers in 1982! 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs
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12-16-2016, 09:18 AM
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#243
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
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Yeah..I like that. I forgot it's Six AM here...everyone in the house is still sleeping and I'm playing "White Flag" @ 30 decibels
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12-16-2016, 09:48 AM
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#244
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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I don't see much of a betting opportunity in that 6th race.
The obvious horses (#5 and #10) don't look flawed in any obvious way to me and figure to improve. The problem being that everyone else knows that. Out of the two, the #5 is probably more likely, but will be favored.
The only angle I can see is on #3. Spirit of Dawn was on the lead in a race that kind of fell apart and is moving into a race without a lot of speed. I like when a horse moves from an unfavorable race flow to a potentially favorable race flow (and vice versa to play against).
Pletcher is also good 2nd time out with a stretch out and she's been working regularly.
The negatives are obvious. She tired badly first out and the female side and her siblings look kind of sprinty. But there are other risks. There's a FTS in there that might show speed (never can tell), a couple of "blinkers on" horses that could show more speed, and a couple of other 2nd time starters that could show more speed on the stretch out.
If I was going to get involved in multi race bets I'd include her, but I can't see her as much of a win or exacta play because she looks like an all or nothing to me. She's either going to jump up and improve, shake loose, and run big or she's more of a sprinter/will get challenged and is going to get swamped. The 5-1 morning line is not screaming value anyway.
About the only exception would be if the track was speed favoring and the riders hadn't already started adjusting by riding more aggressively. Then I might take a stab to win hoping she'd use her superior speed and the track would carry her even if she's a better sprinter.
After you look at a race, a lot of the time you have to conclude that you don't know anything that everyone doesn't know also and turn the page. Absent a significant bias, this race doesn't sing to me.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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12-16-2016, 10:02 AM
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#245
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Yeah..I like that. I forgot it's Six AM here...everyone in the house is still sleeping and I'm playing "White Flag" @ 30 decibels
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Here's my AM handicapping coffee song. This is apropos for em NCG!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xezd5EDZBhQ
Last edited by CincyHorseplayer; 12-16-2016 at 10:03 AM.
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12-16-2016, 11:36 AM
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#246
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Are they racing today at Aqueduct or what?
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12-16-2016, 12:09 PM
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#247
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I don't see much of a betting opportunity in that 6th race.
The obvious horses (#5 and #10) don't look flawed in any obvious way to me and figure to improve. The problem being that everyone else knows that. Out of the two, the #5 is probably more likely, but will be favored.
The only angle I can see is on #3. Spirit of Dawn was on the lead in a race that kind of fell apart and is moving into a race without a lot of speed. I like when a horse moves from an unfavorable race flow to a potentially favorable race flow (and vice versa to play against).
Pletcher is also good 2nd time out with a stretch out and she's been working regularly.
The negatives are obvious. She tired badly first out and the female side and her siblings look kind of sprinty. But there are other risks. There's a FTS in there that might show speed (never can tell), a couple of "blinkers on" horses that could show more speed, and a couple of other 2nd time starters that could show more speed on the stretch out.
If I was going to get involved in multi race bets I'd include her, but I can't see her as much of a win or exacta play because she looks like an all or nothing to me. She's either going to jump up and improve, shake loose, and run big or she's more of a sprinter/will get challenged and is going to get swamped. The 5-1 morning line is not screaming value anyway.
About the only exception would be if the track was speed favoring and the riders hadn't already started adjusting by riding more aggressively. Then I might take a stab to win hoping she'd use her superior speed and the track would carry her even if she's a better sprinter.
After you look at a race, a lot of the time you have to conclude that you don't know anything that everyone doesn't know also and turn the page. Absent a significant bias, this race doesn't sing to me.
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Out of the second time starters, I might throw High End Lady into the mix also. Like Pletcher, Dutrow is pretty good on the stretch out 2nd time also. She'll have to improve quite a big given that I think so many others in the race (including the favorites) are eligible to move forward, but even if she doesn't win, at 12-1 in the ML maybe she can be part of the exotics.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 12-16-2016 at 12:11 PM.
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12-16-2016, 01:04 PM
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#248
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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these horses stink
    
10= A-
6,9,1,5 = B
3,8 = C
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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12-16-2016, 02:18 PM
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#249
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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TLG on fire in this 20 degree weather!
3rd win today!
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12-16-2016, 02:20 PM
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#250
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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TLG Picks Friday Dec 16th, 2016
Race 1 1A - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 2 4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3 5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4 5 - 4 - 3 - 9
Race 5 1 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 6 7 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 10
Race 7 2 - 1A - 8 - 5
Race 8 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 9 8 - 6 - 4 - 2
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12-16-2016, 02:48 PM
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#251
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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JI said the 3rd win today for Irad Ortiz......
He should've said, the 4th WIN today for TLG !
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12-16-2016, 02:51 PM
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#252
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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I knew I should have just blindly bet all of his picks today. After his recent stint, he was more than due....
Reversion to the mean, Mike...reversion to the mean... 
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12-16-2016, 02:52 PM
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#253
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I knew I should have just blindly bet all of his picks today. After his recent stint, he was more than due....
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3 more races left PA ! 
Take advantage !
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12-16-2016, 02:55 PM
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#254
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I knew I should have just blindly bet all of his picks today. After his recent stint, he was more than due....
Reversion to the mean, Mike...reversion to the mean... |
I thought I was smarter on Wednesday when I had a few at square prices that ran winning races but didn't get it done. So I picked a bunch of short priced winners today. Any idiot can do that.
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12-16-2016, 02:56 PM
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#255
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by the little guy
I thought I was smarter on Wednesday when I had a few at square prices that ran winning races but didn't get it done. So I picked a bunch of short priced winners today. Any idiot can do that.
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Very humble, TLG. I'm liking that
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