Electoral College: PREDICTIONS

[Robert Goren]

in the past, Fox usually calls the elections first. Bill O'Reily general bitches about having to be there, will take a look at some early returns, call the winner early on and announce he is going home. He has been right every time I have seen him call an election as votes were coming in. In 2010 at little after 8:00 pm CT, he said was apparent that senate would stay democratic before a lot polls had even closed in key races. He was right of course.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by bigmack

By last count, Joe Trippi, Juan Williams, Kirsten Powers, and 6 others, but I don't feel the need to defend Fox, so it just doesn't matter. BUT if ya pay attention, you'll find bias is WAY LESS there than elsewhere.

9 out of a hundred or so comentators that Fox keeps on the payroll. Fair and balance to them is 4 to 1 like on "The Five".

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

... Fair and balance to them is 4 to 1 like on "The Five".

In context, that's a hell of a ratio.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

9 out of a hundred or so comentators that Fox keeps on the payroll. Fair and balance to them is 4 to 1 like on "The Five".

Fair and Balanced is the news, not the entertainment.
Unlike PMSNBC.

[pandy]

My pick is Romney, don't care about the points, I just think he wins. My guess is that he wins Pennsylvania.

[elysiantraveller]

I'll go 280 or more for Romney. Winning Ohio and flipping one of these three; Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

Popular vote? Romney by 1-2%.

Watching Virginia and New Hampshire will be early tells. Depending on how fast they are declared a route could be on.

[bigmack]

Originally Posted by Rookies

Colorado- Obama has led here for the better part of 6 months,

New Hampshire- This one has fluctuated wildly. R

Florida- Lead changes throughout this game, with Obama in the lead over the longest period of time and maximum lead by either candidate

Ohio- Except for one poll from FOX at +6% on FE 13, Obama has dominated here wire to wire with 95%+ of all polls favouring him.

Virginia- Both candidates have led here, with the President in the lead longest from FE 3- SE 11

Iowa- The President has lead every day for 6 months

Michigan- Obama has never trailed here in 6 months

Nevada- Again, Obama has never trailed in 6 months

Basing your opinion on who had the lead in a variety of seriously flawed polls for what period of time seems HIGHLY flawed, but you'll soon find that out.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by bigmack

Basing your opinion on who had the lead in a variety of seriously flawed polls for what period of time seems HIGHLY flawed, but you'll soon find that out.

I understand what you're saying about the polls, but don't you believe that is widely understood? Are the overseas books that dumb? I really doubt it, but I hope I'm wrong.

[bigmack]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Are the overseas books that dumb? I really doubt it, but I hope I'm wrong.

No need for hope. You were wrong a month or so ago and you're wrong today.

Throw me a bone after MR is declared the victor and remind me what a putz you were hightailing it out of here without accepting the terms of YOUR OWN WAGER.

[Rookies]

Originally Posted by bigmack

Basing your opinion on who had the lead in a variety of seriously flawed polls for what period of time seems HIGHLY flawed, but you'll soon find that out.

You could be correct, as recent polling in both our countries have had some whiffs. There was a recent election in Alberta, (easily Canada's most conservative Province), where the hard right Cons (read Tea Party) had an easy lead days before the election over the governing Cons , but got destroyed. 'Natch it didn't help that two of their prospective members thought frying the homos in hell was a terrific idea , a la the 2 Con U.S. Senators that have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with their appalling and idiotic rape comments.

But I digress:

I'm going with what I've seen and even today, the latest Canadian one on the Prezzy election again said Obama holds serve (48%-46%):

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=5879

When asked an hour ago: " Are you certain? "
Ipsos pollster: " Absolutely."

I will throw you a bone though. I have always liked the voice of Peggy Noonan on ABC and read both well written columns, the one you quoted and this one: http://www.peggynoonan.com/. (How Far Obama Has Fallen)

Didn't of course agree with all she said, but my head said this paragraph really nailed it:

"And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. A few weeks ago I saw the president and the governor at the Al Smith dinner, and both were beautiful specimens in their white ties and tails, and both worked the dais. But sitting there listening to the jokes and speeches, the archbishop of New York sitting between them, Obama looked like a young challenger—flinty, not so comfortable. He was distracted, and his smiles seemed forced. He looked like a man who’d just seen some bad internal polling. Romney? Expansive, hilarious, self-spoofing, with a few jokes of finely calibrated meanness that were just perfect for the crowd. He looked like a president. He looked like someone who’d just seen good internals."

Resonated with me, at least that's what I saw on that night.

At the end, I think that the marathon elections ( two of them bk2bk for Obama) are killers for human beings. That positive, uplifting, musical tone of 2008 has been quieted this time.

That and the day to day 60-60-24-7-365 experience of being Prez and fighting every second against an entrenched opposition! Has to be dispiriting- win or lose.

[bigmack]

Originally Posted by Rookies

Didn't of course agree with all she said, but my head said this paragraph really nailed it:

"And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline...

I appreciate the honest post, as I too, was struck by her take.

Camp BO knows it's over.

I almost felt sad for the dude while he was speaking in Des Moines last night.

But then I remembered what a PARTISAN HACK he is and thought, he's getting EXACTLY what he deserves. A pink slip.

[Saratoga_Mike]

BM,

I offered you a sizable bet with the proceeds going to charity. You PM'd me and said you had "no interest" in charity. Then Pace came onto the board and said (effectively/not an exact quote) "I don't want this crap (betting) on my board." I respected his wishes.

Hightailed it? I enjoy many of the posters and much of the discourse on this board, but it isn't an addiction. Shame you can't say the same.

Throw all the insults at me that you like--I won't be responding to you anymore this evening. Good luck to Romney.

[bigmack]

Chump post from someone whom I once enjoyed his posts til he decided to be a putz. YOU backed down, plain & simple & had a PILE of gall coming at me the way you did.

Bye now.

[bks]

Originally Posted by bigmack

No need for hope. You were wrong a month or so ago and you're wrong today.

Throw me a bone after MR is declared the victor and remind me what a putz you were hightailing it out of here without accepting the terms of YOUR OWN WAGER.

I know you're too old to read small print, but the article's headline is belied by the text:

Latest poll:

Reagan 45%
Carter 40%
Anderson 10%

That's very likely not a close race. Keeping in mind we're talking popular vote and not state-by-state, factoring in a 4% margin of error, that's anything from a Reagan landslide to a narrow Reagan victory.

If the votes are counted, you're getting Obama.

[Greybase]

Originally Posted by bigmack

Bye now.

Sayonara... ?? I've been loosely following this board and... So you're getting ready to pack it up. Was that the wager? Well can't say I agree with much of your crap but it's highly entertaining and good for a giggle... Enjoy your dinner of Crow!

Kind of like in Pro Wrestling, the ol' Loser Leave Town match!