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05-05-2020, 11:15 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Pavel had talent, no doubt about it. People with good opinions were touting him after his maiden win. His connections ruined him.
Setsuko, with 3 grade 1 placings, was often bet despite being eligible for allowance conditions. People were hoping he'd draw into the 2010 Kentucky Derby off his suck-up 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby. People thought he was robbed in the 2011 Big Cap won by Game On Dude. Classic sucker horse.
Ken Rudolph ranted and raved about Giacomo on TVG every chance he got. The horse was bet in several starts post-Derby despite never getting closer than 5-lengths to the winner in any of those races save the San Diego against some Grade 3-types.
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Giacomo was a grade 3 type, grade 3 types can win grade 1's in the right scenarios. Giacomo would have been a nice horse to own, beyond the Ky Derby and all, he collected paychecks at a pretty good clip in big races.
Looking back on it you wonder how good that third place effort of Pavel really was in his second start, the horses in that race were ok. I think that race is what really elevated the opinion of him.
I do remember Setsucko a little, mostly with it being that he was not very good. I think I bet against him many times.
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05-06-2020, 11:37 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: South of heaven
Posts: 385
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Hofburg, anyone?
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05-07-2020, 12:37 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Someday Silent
Hofburg, anyone?
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Juddmonte already had 3 other entrants in the Virtual Sucker Bet race.
Kidding aside, Hofburg has been favored 3 times and won 2 of those. He's only been shorter than 5-1 in two other races. He is closing in on Setsuko status, though...especially if they end up gelding him.
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05-07-2020, 12:46 AM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Juddmonte already had 3 other entrants in the Virtual Sucker Bet race.
Kidding aside, Hofburg has been favored 3 times and won 2 of those. He's only been shorter than 5-1 in two other races. He is closing in on Setsuko status, though...especially if they end up gelding him.
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I feel like Hofburg was flavor of the week for a very brief spell but never had the support that many on this list did.
And to be fair to this list, this is nitpicking very good horses. I know a few maidens that went 7 or 8 races taking alot of money while they searched for that illusive victory.
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05-07-2020, 11:20 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
VIRTUAL SUCKER BET STAKES – 9 FURLONGS DIRT
1) BROTHER DEREK...
9) KISSIN KRIS...
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Great list! I am still waiting for Kissin Kris...
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07-04-2020, 12:18 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,602
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If Tacitus doesn't break out today against a Grade 2 field at 10F at Belmont with enough speed in the race to keep the pace honest, even the true believers will have to concede he was just another one of those promising 3yos that never developed and eventually was passed up by a lot of horses.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-04-2020, 12:27 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
If Tacitus doesn't break out today against a Grade 2 field at 10F at Belmont with enough speed in the race to keep the pace honest, even the true believers will have to concede he was just another one of those promising 3yos that never developed and eventually was passed up by a lot of horses.
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He feels like this is an overwhelming opportunity to get a win. Even with the scratch of Jovia there should be plenty of pace, 10F in a small field should be enough to work out a trip.
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07-04-2020, 01:06 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
He feels like this is an overwhelming opportunity to get a win. Even with the scratch of Jovia there should be plenty of pace, 10F in a small field should be enough to work out a trip.
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You are responding to a completely disingenuous post. He and Mr. Buff are about equally likely to win today and that's pretty obvious to everyone.
Just more BS regarding Tacitus.
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07-04-2020, 01:13 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
He feels like this is an overwhelming opportunity to get a win. Even with the scratch of Jovia there should be plenty of pace, 10F in a small field should be enough to work out a trip.
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IMO, this is what he needed.
He never really broke out the way you'd hope a lightly raced Wood Memorial winner should eventually. He's been a high 90s and low 100 Beyer horse for a long time. That gets you some wins and a piece of some major races early in your 3yo season, but it's not going to get many Grade 1 wins as the other 3yos start breaking out and you eventually have to face older.
At the Grade 2 level the easier competition should make for an easier trip. A low 100 figure could get the job done even if still doesn't break out.
It's not that's he a bad horse. He's a good horse. It's that his reputation and hype have exceeded what he was doing on the track. Very good horses overcome some of the less than ideal trips. Pretty good horses run 2nd, 3rd, or 4th with an excuse. They've been betting him like he's a very good horse, but so far he's just been pretty good. Here's one more chance to break out and hit a big new top, but he's running out of chances.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-04-2020, 01:25 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
You are responding to a completely disingenuous post. He and Mr. Buff are about equally likely to win today and that's pretty obvious to everyone.
Just more BS regarding Tacitus.
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Andy,
My Buff is a very nice horse.
He's a way above average statebred stakes horse. But no one would confuse him with high level Grade 1 horse at this point. The reason he has a chance against Tacitus is that this a Grade 2 event and because Tacitus is not a legitimate Grade 1 horse at this stage either.
Get it?
That's the point of contention.
The Tacitus fans (and I was one early on) keep making him out to be a very good Grade 1 horse who has just had some bad luck. The problem is that he hasn't developed much and still hasn't broken out to the Grade 1 level. At some point you have to look at reality. He was precocious at 3 winning the Wood, had a few tough trips, but so far he's still not a Grade 1 horse. He just gets bet and hyped like one by some people. That's why he's been such a big money burner (taking some of my money with him early on).
It's not too late for him to break out. Today may be the day. But if he loses this Grade 2, he's simply not the horse people were hoping he could become a year ago. That's all. And if you were honest with yourself you'd admit that rather than arguing with reality because you like the horse.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-04-2020 at 01:38 PM.
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07-04-2020, 01:34 PM
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#41
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,826
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It worries me the blinkers are going back on. It feels like a guessing game at this point for Bill Mott, somebody that certainly knows what he is doing.
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07-04-2020, 01:51 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
It worries me the blinkers are going back on. It feels like a guessing game at this point for Bill Mott, somebody that certainly knows what he is doing.
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Not that I understand Mott's thinking, but I don't think it would be the worst idea if he was sitting 2nd or 3rd behind Mr Buff hoping that one doesn't want the last furlong and then having first move on Sir Winston in case that one is ready for a breakout performance.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-04-2020, 02:12 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
You are responding to a completely disingenuous post. He and Mr. Buff are about equally likely to win today and that's pretty obvious to everyone.
Just more BS regarding Tacitus.
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Maybe your right, Mr Buff certainly has run better races lately but Tacitus has shown some real class and combined with the distance feels like he will be a strong favorite in the race and and the tote board.
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07-04-2020, 03:18 PM
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#44
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,086
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I made fun of him....... but this is a group he’s supposed to beat. I could never “single” this horse, but if he doesn’t win today ? I don’t care what the excuse is you gotta wonder if he’s just one that hangs every time
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07-04-2020, 03:37 PM
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#45
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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One thing is for certain.....there will not be a Handicap Triple winner this year.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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