Goldencents

[Valuist]

I'm trying to think back to celebrities that owned horses in the Derby, and how much that would impact the betting odds. Only two come to mind: Jacklin Klugman in the 1980 Derby, who was a contender, and Bobby Hurley's Songandaprayer, who was a pace presence in the ridiculously fast paced 2001 Derby, but was not a contender, by any means. I seem to remember Pitino may have had a Derby starter or two in the past, or at least runners on the Derby trail. But he never had a realistic contender until now.

He has to be considered one of the strong contenders in there, if not the favorite. I was underwhelmed by Verrazano's Wood Memorial. To prompt a pace that slow and not win easier than he did was not encouraging. The most impressive part of the Wood was Normandy Invasion's final 1/8th of a mile. Orb appears to mostly be an opportunist; he took advantage when Violence went too fast early, and when the 9th furlong proved too much for Itsmyluckyday.

Goldencents fits the template of a Derby winner: he had the 2 YO foundation, he has a trainer who just won the Derby last year, and most importantly, he was the best horse in the best Derby prep so far. We haven't seen the Ark Derby yet but I will be surprised if we get a 105 Beyer out of that race. The Blue Grass is totally irrelevant now as a Derby prep.

So will Goldencents be overbet in the win pool due to his famous owner? Almost certainly. But he probably won't be in the Pic 3s/4s/doubles/exactas and tris.

[precocity]

like CJ says look at the delta jackpot
click vid.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...t-wire-to-wire


ALL DEPENDS YOU KNOW THE DERBY BUT IF HE CAN RATE HE CAN WIN OR HIT THE BOARD.

[rastajenk]

Burt Bacharach had some nice ones in the 90's, but I don't think his celebrity would compare with Pitino's, in Louisville of all places, as far as dinging the odds.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by precocity

like CJ says look at the delta jackpot
click vid.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...t-wire-to-wire


ALL DEPENDS YOU KNOW THE DERBY BUT IF HE CAN RATE HE CAN WIN OR HIT THE BOARD.

That Delta Jackpot field is one of the better ones we've seen assembled so far: Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute and Bern Identity in there. So it has produced the winner or runnerup in the SA Derby, the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby. Can definitely make the case the race should be a Grade 1.

[precocity]

go to the forums and read the Pitino thread unbelievable.

[precocity]

Originally Posted by Valuist

That Delta Jackpot field is one of the better ones we've seen assembled so far: Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute and Bern Identity in there. So it has produced the winner or runnerup in the SA Derby, the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby. Can definitely make the case the race should be a Grade 1.

lmao at goldencents running the first 3 furlongs with his head to the right

[CincyHorseplayer]

Goldcents facing a bunch of like running styles had the bigger pace figures coming into the SA Derby and simply outran them if they chose the lead or they compromised themselves if they rated.But he finally finished strongly and IMO is one of the,if not thee best onpace horse.Looking at his breeding he is bred to be a miler on both sides and will face a more earnest early pace and 10 furlongs.

I think It'sMyLuckyday is a talented horse and will run very well come derby day but he,like GC is bred to be a miler on both sides.

Verrazano is the most interesting of the early pace types IMO.For one he might not be!He hasn't faced too tough a pace at all and inherited leads but I think he can rate and while the Wood was slow,they only need to run as fast as necessary.His sire has a miler stamina index but he has top notch distance breeding on his dam's side.

Vyjack=mediocre IMO and miler bred on both sides.

Normandy Invasion-I think he has the right running style and rallied into a slow pace in the Wood.I don't know if he will be a flatten out candidate because he is another miler bred on both sides.Or keep on running into an advantageous pace.I'm betting on the latter but not to win.He'll be a big player in my exotics.

Orb-I just hope he's 4-1 on derby day because I like everything about him.he wasn't put on tilt to win the Florida Derby.He was already in the KY Derby gate pointswise and Shug was just building a foundation in him and said about as much.It can arguably be said he ran against a slightly biased Gulfstream strip this winter(not sure about that).But he has proven he has some class.Is an opportunist,why do people think that's not a virtue?And is bred stoutly for this on both sides of his pedigree,especially his dam's.After a big effort 2 back and a softer emphasis last out I think he's primed to deliver his best next out.IMO only a bad trip compromises him.

Revolutionary-I hated him in the Louisiana Derby!But he has the right running style,the speed,and while mile bred on his sires side has big stamina on mare's side.He's going to be a win candidate.

Departing-is my wiseguy horse.He topped out before the Louisiana Derby and had some pretty sizable trip issues and might not have been at his best either.On a potential bounceback and solid distance breeding on both sides and a pressing style I think he's a major player.

Overall I like this crop and think it's one of the best we've seen in a while.

That's my two cents.

[magwell]

Cincy; I agree , You covered the situation real good, sure looks like Orb and Verranzano are the horses to beat at the distance and both look the part up close,

[Valuist]

Verrazano is an almost certain underlay. Too much history on these Pletcher runners running big at Gulfstream and not being able to run as big once heading up north. His record at Churchill the past few years (encompassing about 100 starters) is around 6%. The Wood Memorial was a perfect setup for him, yet he wasn't the most impressive runner in the race. Bet him at your own risk.

[letswastemoney]

Breeding is an overrated factor in the Kentucky Derby. It's the one race where everyone places a premium on breeding, when horses that were sired by sprinters like Elusive Quality still went on to win.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Breeding is an overrated factor in the Kentucky Derby. It's the one race where everyone places a premium on breeding, when horses that were sired by sprinters like Elusive Quality still went on to win.

They get stamina from their dam side too.It's not as 1 dimensional and meaningless as you make it out.If you want us to believe breeding is overrated,give more than half an answer,or the only thing overrated is your belief in your reply!

[Tread]

The best horse in the best race so far??? Why, because Beyer says so?



Who did he beat in this field? The winner of these peers last time wasn't even in the race, and the horse he beat for second was racing on what most likely was an extremely sore knee and is now out of training.

Goldencents had the dreamiest of trips here, sitting just off the pace of a severely distance limited "route" horse and having to do nothing more than hold off an injured contender afterwards, as the track was so ridiculously speed favoring all day that closers had no chance at all no matter what the fractions were.

Go check the chart, every winner of every dirt race was in the lead at the top of the stretch. This track had a SEVERE bias and horses coming from behind were out of contention when the gates opened. The fact that Super99 held on for third tells me all I need to know, this track had a ridiculous bias to it and played into the how "impressive" the victory appeared to simpletons.

Figure makers like Jerry Brown have already been heard on this topic, unequvicoally stating he is adding to the time of the SAD due to the glib surface and reducing the time of the Wood due to it (the surface) being slow and the horses coming home into a huge headwind (which, incidentally, still didnt stop them from running the last 3F almost 2 sec faster than the SAD horses did).

And this isn't even to mention his pedigree, which is absolutely NOTHING like I'llHaveAnother's and is loaded with sprinters and milers. BRIS shows an avg winning distance of both his sire and dam's sire to be less than 7F. Pretty sure no horse ever in the history of the Derby has won with AWD so low on both sides.

If you want to bet the horse simply because O'Neil won last year, go right ahead. A lot of people bet Motion's horse last year for the exact same reason, not looking deeper into the details, and that didn't work out very well for them.

[Tread]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

They get stamina from their dam side too.It's not as 1 dimensional and meaningless as you make it out.If you want us to believe breeding is overrated,give more than half an answer,or the only thing overrated is your belief in your reply!

Exactly this. Smarty's Dam sire was Smile, who had an AWD for dam sire offspring of 8.5F PRIOR to Smarty's Derby win. Breeding is not overrated, dam sire stamina influences are certain underrated and unnoticed by many though, I'll tell you that much.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Tread

The best horse in the best race so far??? Why, because Beyer says so?



Who did he beat in this field? The winner of these peers last time wasn't even in the race, and the horse he beat for second was racing on what most likely was an extremely sore knee and is now out of training.

Goldencents had the dreamiest of trips here, sitting just off the pace of a severely distance limited "route" horse and having to do nothing more than hold off an injured contender afterwards, as the track was so ridiculously speed favoring all day that closers had no chance at all no matter what the fractions were.

Go check the chart, every winner of every dirt race was in the lead at the top of the stretch. This track had a SEVERE bias and horses coming from behind were out of contention when the gates opened. The fact that Super99 held on for third tells me all I need to know, this track had a ridiculous bias to it and played into the how "impressive" the victory appeared to simpletons.

Figure makers like Jerry Brown have already been heard on this topic, unequvicoally stating he is adding to the time of the SAD due to the glib surface and reducing the time of the Wood due to it (the surface) being slow and the horses coming home into a huge headwind (which, incidentally, still didnt stop them from running the last 3F almost 2 sec faster than the SAD horses did).

And this isn't even to mention his pedigree, which is absolutely NOTHING like I'llHaveAnother's and is loaded with sprinters and milers. BRIS shows an avg winning distance of both his sire and dam's sire to be less than 7F. Pretty sure no horse ever in the history of the Derby has won with AWD so low on both sides.

If you want to bet the horse simply because O'Neil won last year, go right ahead. A lot of people bet Motion's horse last year for the exact same reason, not looking deeper into the details, and that didn't work out very well for them.

One factor I mention was O'Neill won the race last year and now, its the only reason I want to bet the horse? I certainly didn't bet on Motion last year. Reading is a skill; apparently one you are lacking. Results always trump bloodlines. Funny Cide was supposed to not be able to route. Same with Smarty Jones. How did that work out for those that doubted their ability to stay? How did the BRIS avg winning distance for Goldencents work out in the SA Derby? Dream trip? Chasing/pressing a solid pace two wide. Rough trip? No. Dream trip? I would say Verrazano had a dream trip in the Wood. I would say Orb had a dream trip in the Fountain of Youth. We saw that Goldencents doesn't have to be on the lead every step.

The best indication of how a 3 YO will perfom at 1 1/4 miles is how it perfoms at 1 1/8 miles.

So quick to judge, why don't you impart your great "wisdom" and tell us who is the horse to beat?

[Tread]

Originally Posted by Valuist

One factor I mention was O'Neill won the race last year and now, its the only reason I want to bet the horse? I certainly didn't bet on Motion last year. Reading is a skill; apparently one you are lacking. Results always trump bloodlines. Funny Cide was supposed to not be able to route. Same with Smarty Jones. How did that work out for those that doubted their ability to stay? How did the BRIS avg winning distance for Goldencents work out in the SA Derby? Dream trip? Chasing/pressing a solid pace two wide. Rough trip? No. Dream trip? I would say Verrazano had a dream trip in the Wood. I would say Orb had a dream trip in the Fountain of Youth. We saw that Goldencents doesn't have to be on the lead every step.

The best indication of how a 3 YO will perfom at 1 1/4 miles is how it perfoms at 1 1/8 miles.

So quick to judge, why don't you impart your great "wisdom" and tell us who is the horse to beat?

Funny Cide and Smarty weren't supposed to be able to route? Are you just going to blatantly make stuff up for this discussion?

Funny Cide had a DI of 1.53 and a CD of 0.46. His dam sire AWD was 8.5F. There is absolutely nothing in that pedigree that suggests he would have any trouble at a route. Unless you take a complete simpleton view of saying "oh he's by Distorted Humor and he produces a bunch of sprint winners".

I just addressed Smarty's pedigree in the post above, and you are using it as a negative, and I have a reading comprehension problem? A dam sire AWD of 8.5F is higher than ANY of the Derby contenders you will see this year, and Elusive Quality's 7.6F is nearly a full furlong better than both sides of Goldencent's pedigree.

And yes, when you sit just behind the pace of a horse who is 1/5 to stop badly in the stretch of a 9F race over a ridiculously speed favoring strip and nothing else within 6 lengths of you other than a horse with an injured knee, trips do not get any more dreamier than that.