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Old 11-02-2021, 09:38 AM   #76
BarchCapper
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Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
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the linked chart from Brisnet comes to a much different conclusion

according to Brisnet 2/1 over 3/1 has a fair payout of $16 for a $ 2 bet which makes it $ 8.00 for a $ 1.00 bet



http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/allwaysexacta


.
Is this a case of the Brisnet chart being based on the toteboard odds (which include the track takeout), and Formula's calculations of fair payout being based on the true probabilities based on those odds after eliminating the takeout?

Example:
Win pool is $100,000
Takeout is 20%
Horse A has $20,000 wagered to win
Horse A toteboard odds: 3-1 ($80,000 left in pool after take-$20K bet on horse A=$60K/$20K bet on horse A=25% "tote" probability)
Horse A "true" odds: 4-1 ($100,000 total pool-$20K Horse A=$80K/$20K=20% "true" probability)
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Last edited by BarchCapper; 11-02-2021 at 09:47 AM. Reason: Add calculation
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Old 11-02-2021, 10:09 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
Is this a case of the Brisnet chart being based on the toteboard odds (which include the track takeout), and Formula's calculations of fair payout being based on the true probabilities based on those odds after eliminating the takeout?

I don't get what he's doing at all

why would you mess with takeout when the tote has already considered takeout?

although the take on exactas is maybe 2 - 6% more than the take on win bets - but that is not being considered at all

also, the difference shown is not small - it's huge - he calculates a payout of more than 50% higher than Brisnet

and if what you're saying is correct it seems to me he would calculate a smaller payout, not a larger one

color me confused - completely


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Old 11-02-2021, 11:18 AM   #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
Is this a case of the Brisnet chart being based on the toteboard odds (which include the track takeout), and Formula's calculations of fair payout being based on the true probabilities based on those odds after eliminating the takeout?

Example:
Win pool is $100,000
Takeout is 20%
Horse A has $20,000 wagered to win
Horse A toteboard odds: 3-1 ($80,000 left in pool after take-$20K bet on horse A=$60K/$20K bet on horse A=25% "tote" probability)
Horse A "true" odds: 4-1 ($100,000 total pool-$20K Horse A=$80K/$20K=20% "true" probability)
from my web page
based on a 15% win pool take out

THE PROBABILITY OF A HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE .
THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT SUMS TO ABOUT 1.18
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/1.18
TAG THE WIN HORSES WIN PROBABILITY WITH "A"
TAG THE PLACE HORSE WIN PROBABILITY WITH "B"
EXACTA PROBABILITY PROBABILITY FOR A/B IS:
A X (B/(1-A))
EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%
A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.18 = .282
B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.18 = .212

PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,
.282 x(.212/(1-.282)) = .083
THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.083)= 12.04
THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $12.04
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Old 11-02-2021, 12:14 PM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
from my web page
based on a 15% win pool take out

THE PROBABILITY OF A HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE .
THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT SUMS TO ABOUT 1.18
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/1.18
TAG THE WIN HORSES WIN PROBABILITY WITH "A"
TAG THE PLACE HORSE WIN PROBABILITY WITH "B"
EXACTA PROBABILITY PROBABILITY FOR A/B IS:
A X (B/(1-A))
EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%
A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.18 = .282
B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.18 = .212

PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,
.282 x(.212/(1-.282)) = .083
THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.083)= 12.04
THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $12.04

why would you do a complicated thing like that when the win odds as displayed by the tote already have considered the takeout?


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Old 11-02-2021, 04:09 PM   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
why would you do a complicated thing like that when the win odds as displayed by the tote already have considered the takeout?


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Its only complicated the first time its programed.

if you sum 1/(odds+1) for an entire race (the booking percentage) and adjust the odds accordingly, you will find that a horse listed at 2-1 on the tote board is wrong. It could be between 2-1 and 2.49 to 1. Then that needs to be adjusted by the booking % to get the true odds.
additionally the ex take out is different from the win pool takeout.
you need to calculate the true odds in each pool, both win and exacta.


when you calculate the booking %, you will find it varies somewhat from the published track takeout
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Last edited by formula_2002; 11-02-2021 at 04:10 PM.
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