Arkansas Derby 4/16

[Bruddah]

This is my list for probables for the Arkansas Derby. Does anyone have any information on these, or those I may have omitted?

1. Archarcharch
2. Astrology
3. Bretheren
4. Caleb's Posse
5. Elite Alex
6. J P's Gusto
7. Nehro
8. Saratoga Red
9. Sway Away
10. The Factor
11. Truman's Commander

[Striker]

Alternation is a probable starter I think. Blinkers are going on for Elite Alex.

[toussaud]

pval is the new rider on sway away.

[Shelby]

I like Saratoga Red.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by toussaud

pval is the new rider on sway away.

OHWOW...I like that...absolutley love PVal, and I'm so happy he's proved so many wrong by not only staying clean and sober, but riding like the devil...he'll move up Sway Away, no doubt about it ...
me thinks The Factor will have company out of the gate...Elite Alex's bullet and blinkers make me think he's gonna come out like gangbusters...this one is going to be a great race

[canleakid]

Maximum field size is 14. Expected to start as of Monday were Archarcharch, Caleb’s Posse, Elite Alex, J P’s Gusto, J W Blue, Nehro, Saratoga Red, Sway Away,The Factor,Alternation,Brethren,Dance City & Truman's Commander

1 spot still open

[Tom]

Zito training Truman now.

[Cardus]

Originally Posted by joanied

OHWOW...I like that...absolutley love PVal, and I'm so happy he's proved so many wrong by not only staying clean and sober, but riding like the devil...he'll move up Sway Away, no doubt about it ...
me thinks The Factor will have company out of the gate...Elite Alex's bullet and blinkers make me think he's gonna come out like gangbusters...this one is going to be a great race

The fools! The fools to think that a man who was suspended about eight times in the 1990s for drug infractions, for nearly two years again in 2000, and had his license suspended yet again in 2006 and 2007, was going to stay sober enough to ride.

The man who shaved all of his hair - didn't he? -- to avoid a follicle test: everyone who doubted him was wrong to believe that he was going to stay "clean and sober."

I was comfortable doubting that he would stay clear of the stewards.

The highlighted portion above is rubbish, if for no other reason that it was not unreasonable to form an opinion of his future based upon his lengthy, systemic, failure to stay "clean and sober."

[Cardus]

One of my favorite racing lines comes from a friend of mine about PVal: "He could get an elephant out of the gate faster than most jockeys can get horses out."

He was a sensational talent.

[toetoe]

I'm not an incorrigible Gomez apologist, but Sway Away will underperform again. He showed so little speed that not even PVal will be able to gatebust with this colt. One race was enough for me to fall right through the other side of this colt's bandwagon. Bonde will be chugging salty beers.

[Sekrah]

Very interested in ArchArchArch and Elite Alex in this one. Outside of The Factor they are the only two who interest me as potential Derby party crashers.

Another is Astrology, if Asmussen decides to run him here.

[toussaud]

in 4 career races sway away

1. won his maiden
2. hooked a future grade 1 winner an d 2nd place santa anita derby winner at 7F and damn near won
3. hooked the horse with the best 2 turn beyer speed figure this year in the factor in the san vincente
4. got rilled up and lost a tooth in the rebel



sway away.. i'm not going to say he is going to win.. but he's going to run his butt off as long as nothing funky happens. keep in mind.. he's one of the few horses that has run a 100 bsf (in the san vincente, he didn't win so no one lists it, but he ran a 100 to the factor's 103.
He's actually running against real horses. There aren't many out there that are going to bet JP at 7F. Or the factor for that matter. I would take the factor at 7F against any horse in the carter and like my chances and sway away almost nabbed him.
tyoy

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by toussaud

in 4 career races sway away

1. won his maiden
2. hooked a future grade 1 winner an d 2nd place santa anita derby winner at 7F and damn near won
3. hooked the horse with the best 2 turn beyer speed figure this year in the factor in the san vincente
4. got rilled up and lost a tooth in the rebel



sway away.. i'm not going to say he is going to win.. but he's going to run his butt off as long as nothing funky happens. keep in mind.. he's one of the few horses that has run a 100 bsf (in the san vincente, he didn't win so no one lists it, but he ran a 100 to the factor's 103.
He's actually running against real horses. There aren't many out there that are going to bet JP at 7F. Or the factor for that matter. I would take the factor at 7F against any horse in the carter and like my chances and sway away almost nabbed him.
tyoy

You may be right but I have a different take on it.
In that race there were only 6 horses in it. There were 3 of them that tried to run with The Factor and 2 of them dropped out of it. Premier Pegasus raced in 3rd and made a bid in the stretch but got a little tired from his effort to chase down TF. Sway was running last and after everyone was cooked he was coming on. Somebody had to come at the end and who else but a horse that hadn't even gotten involved. PP came back in his next and laid back and then blew them away. Sway only passed tired horses and proved it in his next when he didn't run a lick and he will be nowhere to be found against this field. JMO

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

You may be right but I have a different take on it.
In that race there were only 6 horses in it. There were 3 of them that tried to run with The Factor and 2 of them dropped out of it. Premier Pegasus raced in 3rd and made a bid in the stretch but got a little tired from his effort to chase down TF. Sway was running last and after everyone was cooked he was coming on. Somebody had to come at the end and who else but a horse that hadn't even gotten involved. PP came back in his next and laid back and then blew them away. Sway only passed tired horses and proved it in his next when he didn't run a lick and he will be nowhere to be found against this field. JMO

while I respect your opinion, I have to disagree on 2 points

1. he ran a 100 beyer. he was passing horses, not falling in line

2. he beat premier Pegasus.. by alot. a few lengths.

He's a horse that has been running against speed horses /sprinters, in sprint races and the race that he was supposed to show out, he lost his chance before the race started

we will see saturday

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by toussaud

while I respect your opinion, I have to disagree on 2 points

1. he ran a 100 beyer. he was passing horses, not falling in line

2. he beat premier Pegasus.. by alot. a few lengths.

He's a horse that has been running against speed horses /sprinters, in sprint races and the race that he was supposed to show out, he lost his chance before the race started

we will see saturday

1- Beyer means zilch to me plus closers can get carried to fast times.

2- PP was pressing a fast pace...see what he did when he layed off the pace.

Your right...we shall see...that's the beauty of horse racing