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Old 06-23-2014, 10:30 AM   #1
Valuist
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Tonalist odds drop

Not sure if this has been posted here but Roxy Roxborough tweeted the reason for the 9-1 odds on Tonalist after he was 11-1 when the gate opened was due to a single $200k wager. Legit or not, the late odds fluctuations are bad because the perception is there's a late window open. Racing needs to address this; lock betting windows when first horse enters starting gate. Bettors will have to adapt.
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Old 06-23-2014, 10:55 AM   #2
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that horse didn't have a 5 length lead out of the gate and the change of odds showed up by the first half mile.

someone could have been playing the horse no matter what but waited to make sure he had a clean break.

the real question is why should anyone be able to punch out $200,000 on a ticket in a millisecond? my answer would be that anyone that has access to that type of punch certainly knows what he is doing and is taking some type of an edge that most don't have.
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Old 06-23-2014, 11:14 AM   #3
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BetFair odds were trading lower than 11/1
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Old 06-23-2014, 11:49 AM   #4
Robert Fischer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
that horse didn't have a 5 length lead out of the gate and the change of odds showed up by the first half mile.

someone could have been playing the horse no matter what but waited to make sure he had a clean break.

the real question is why should anyone be able to punch out $200,000 on a ticket in a millisecond? my answer would be that anyone that has access to that type of punch certainly knows what he is doing and is taking some type of an edge that most don't have.
If the odds change showed up that early into the race, It looks like a legit large wager made as they loaded and slow to show up on our old tote system.

If the money didn't show up until after the race finished (as happens often enough @ Woodbine), then we have more probability/appearance of cheating.

The best conspiracy theory someone could say would be "Chrome didn't get the easy lead, so someone punched in on the 2nd best horse".
That would be pretty suspect as far as grand conspiracy tales go...

It's not like Chrome dumped his jockey or something.


Let's also remember that Tonalist was a worthy contender, and that his owner, has the money to make a 1/4Mill wager the same way I would make a $250 wager.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 06-23-2014 at 11:50 AM.
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Old 06-23-2014, 01:42 PM   #5
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As I recall, Tonalist was down to 4-1 at one point, which were fair odds IMO. I agree the issue needs to be addressed, but in this case it probably benefited everyone (that bet on Tonalist). If placed earlier, I'm not sure the odds would have drifted back up.
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Old 06-23-2014, 03:05 PM   #6
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I've noticed a few times recently, while attempting to place a last second bet, that Xpressbet closes the pad during loading.
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Old 06-23-2014, 03:06 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appy
I've noticed a few times recently, while attempting to place a last second bet, that Xpressbet closes the pad during loading.
You sure your video isn't just behind, which is common on the net and even via television?
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Old 06-23-2014, 03:16 PM   #8
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You sure your video isn't just behind, which is common on the net and even via television?
You're right, some of these video feeds are over 10 seconds behind, especially if you're watching an HD broadcast on TV with a satellite dish.
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Old 06-23-2014, 03:38 PM   #9
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the video is always behind unless you are at the actual track that is running the races. the only track that i know of that has real time television feeds for racing is The Red Mile, and they only take harness racing.

as far as TONALIST goes, the guy that bet him for the $200,000 could and probably is the same guy that bet on MONARCHOS in the Florida Derby for the same $200,000 at the break in a dog track in South Dakota.

if they were that interested in finding out when and where the bet came from, i am sure its not that tough to find.
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Old 06-23-2014, 04:17 PM   #10
Robert Goren
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The video at Express Bet is closer to the actual time than video at Twinspires at least for NYRA races.
As long as the $200,000 bettor made his wager before the gates open, nobody has any gripes. I have not heard anything to make me think he didn't. If any of us were betting $200k, we would wait until the last second too.
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Old 06-23-2014, 04:43 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
The video at Express Bet is closer to the actual time than video at Twinspires at least for NYRA races.
As long as the $200,000 bettor made his wager before the gates open, nobody has any gripes. I have not heard anything to make me think he didn't. If any of us were betting $200k, we would wait until the last second too.
I think the problem that some have with this is the recent Delaware stuff that's posted by Pete on the racing board and the past posting that happened last year and the TRPB said they would "get around to it" and never did. They hid the identity of the track in question and then hoped we forgot about it.

Also, another thought process is that even if the Tonalist bet was before the start, it still looks bad. It looks shady. That 200k wager took 2 million out of the pool, makes some people ask the question "who knew what".

You said you haven't heard anything to make you think different, but was there any press release from NYRA saying that this was a legitimate bet and where the bet came from and what the time stamp looked like and so on and so forth? Having not heard anything is different from someone saying "this was legit" and to my knowledge, NYRA or anyone else (like a tote company)hasnt made an official statement about this wager.
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Old 06-23-2014, 04:53 PM   #12
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if you think it was past posting, then question is what happen at or did not happen at the start to make Tonalist worth a $200k bet? Obviously the guy had $200k ready to bet. I doubt if had $200k just sitting there hoping for something happen and that he was going to be able to get the bet through if it did.
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Old 06-23-2014, 06:04 PM   #13
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For the record I posted this after I saw otm al photo......hours later my
Thread was closed.....why I'm not sure
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Old 06-23-2014, 06:06 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
if you think it was past posting, then question is what happen at or did not happen at the start to make Tonalist worth a $200k bet? Obviously the guy had $200k ready to bet. I doubt if had $200k just sitting there hoping for something happen and that he was going to be able to get the bet through if it did.
I don't know what happened, but the people who DO know what happened aren't saying a word about it.
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Old 06-23-2014, 06:33 PM   #15
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Fer chrissakes! The horse won by only a neck ! It not like he won by daylight. The horse was a contender if Chrome faltered .Again,no story here! Now if Commissioner won and such a thing happened with late money coming in, that might be a different story.Brother!... Let it go!
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