Has the time come?

[backinzona]

Quote from Bob Baffert on the Bill Christine website showing some of the logic behind the takeout increase. Bob is a TOC board member.

Quote:
Bob Baffert says:
29 Sep 2010 at 12:46 am | # I strongly disagree. The new CHRB is doing a fine job of jump starting Ca. racing. The new increase in take out goes solely to purses. We need those purses to keep owners in the game and trainers and jockeys from leaving the state. No horses, no racing. Works both ways. Sure, you can bet football but to make $100, you have to bet a $100. The opportunity to turn a little money into a lot of money only exists in racing. I don’t believe we don’t need casinos to survive. If we have quality horses running in Ca. we will survive. Better purses brings better horses, brings better racing… A return to dirt at Santa Anita is a huge plus, too. Brackpool and Israel are getting things done quickly. Racing IS entertainment AND a gamble. Why do thousands of fans show up to watch great horses like Zenyatta? They want to be entertained. By nature, people want to see greatness in competition. The new TOC and CTT boards also have very strong leadership. Things are starting to come together now in Ca. Finally, we have some positive momentum and solid leadership.





http://www.horseraceinsider.com/west...the-lifeboats/

[GatetoWire]

Great Post Jeff.

I will not give California one nickel after this takeout increase happens.

We really need a grassroots effort to get a boycott going.

We need to get the word out to everyone across the country to support this.

If everyone gets together and the handle really dips then these boneheads running other tracks might take notice and decrease their takeouts.

We need a this to go viral to all horseplayers across the country.

[JustRalph]

It's Crunch time............

[GatetoWire]

Of course Baffert is for this....He wants larger purses to attract more horses.

All of these numbers are based on handle staying the same.....if the handle stayed the same and I was a trainer then of course I would want it to go through.

All of a sudden my owners and more importantly me...are now making more money than before.

Reality is that handle is going to drop big time.....purses are not going up like they think and California racing is going to suffer big time

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by rwwupl

Can we see a list of the "whales"(Real Name not required) with estimated handle and some minnows who promise to boycott California?

If we had a list, that might scare the hell out of them.

Listen Hoss, they should be scared. Compared to us, their management is comprised of weak businessman(compared to any of the more successful horseplayers, especially whales that treat this game as a business operation!!) If they knew how organized, talented, and ready we are, they would never have painted themselves in the corner that they are now in. You are 100% correct in sensing that the Whales are very important here. I will outline their role in this post.

I like your suggestion, but I add caution that names, and dollars handle, even just going public is very personal. For some it's not going to be their best business practice. We as horseplayers are LUCKY because we happen to be in THE RIGHT! (amen to that), and one of the Great Rewards of being in the right is that provided we have some leverage - (which we are very fortunate have in bunches), simply following "best practice" will put us in position for big success.


BIG PLAYERS or "Whales" are an important part of our strategic position. Once again Whales are encouraged to simply execute "best business practice". While it is possible that "Whales" could sit down in a preemptive strategy in attempt to prevent a boycott from having to take place at all, it seems that the market(and California's brutal takeout attack) will in fact dictate a boycott, and - extremely important- that a boycott should actually BENEFIT the BIG PLAYER as well as the common horseplayer! In other words by practicing reckless and bad strategy, management in California has unintentionally brought us to the brink of boycott, with little to no alternative.

In fact let's quickly look over our strategic position:

In the boycott, the common horseplayers will not bet into the EX,DB,TRI pools. While Whales are by all means free to immediately help ALL horseplayers by showing solidarity and participating in the boycott, what I actually recommend and predict for most "Whale" enterprises is simply FREE MARKET STRATEGY.

Because of the gross underestimating of the horseplayer by management(particularly recently in California), we actually enjoy a huge strategic advantage on many fronts.
Let me quickly outline the market conditions in a boycott, and why I recommend a Free-Market approach for whales not wishing to sign-up and speak out directly in a boycott situation. -

AGAIN, Whales should and must operate in their OWN best interest in a boycott situation. We as the "common" horseplayer just need to remember two facts:

1. bigPLAYERS or "Whales" are first and foremost "Horseplayers"
2. and in this case what benefits Whales, Benefits US!

The Whales are ON OUR SIDE. These market changes encourage play in the "GOOD POOLS" NATURALLY BY MEANS OF THE FREE MARKET!!! As the Boycott sets in, a number of market situations begin to play out. The Ex,TRI, and DailyDouble pools decrease in size. The ratio of Whale play in those boycotted pools increase. This causes Competitive Convergence, and will lead to a mutually destructive path of attrition if the Whales continue to "feed off each other" within the EX,DB,TRI pools. Now it should be crystal clear that no pledge or public listing of name or income is necessary. The Whales are excellent businessmen in tune with the market. Where will the market indicate a reward?? read on-> At the same time WIN POOL(and other non-boycott including WPS etc..) increase in total size and decrease in ratio of Whale Money. THUS the FREE MARKET indicates best business practice for WHALES WILL be TO ATTACK THE WIN POOL(AND non-boycott POOLS) AT INCREASED PROFIT AND CHURN!!! Whales therefore have the luxury of increasing their optimum maximum wager size in a traditionally secure pool like the WIN POOL. For the common horseplayer, if it isn't already clear; This has an obvious effect CHURN BABY CHURN! you know- the reason whales got into this game in the first place?? Then there are the more subtle Whale-advantages that fit well with the WIN pool that start to occur more frequently like their edge in information(information-"gap"). Yes, Whales have "unfair" edges that go beyond rebates.

FINALLY A SHORT N SWEET SUMMARY

1. Whales will actually benefit from a boycott. In fact leaders of the boycott should cater to whales by discussing mutually beneficial strategies and being on the same page especially with specifics and times so that Whales may play the Free Market to their best advantages.
2. The Free market rather than a "pledge" or going public may be best for most SUPERSIZE Players.
3. we need Big Players to really crush the management's unfair practices - So we NEED(its a must) to sit down/email some of the Bigger players and draw up a gameplan that benefits them. Yes Benefiting whales directly is a STRONG winning strategy here.
4. Man your slings David!, And lets put a couple GIANTS on Goliath!!! for the good of us ALL

- Bobby Fischer

[Stillriledup]

One more bad thing for the horse racing industry that's relying on not publicizing takeout rates and keeping customers in the dark is the internet age. There is still probably a large core of players in their 50s and older who don't know internet from schminternet. This means that if they don't participate in message boards and keep up to date on the doings around the racing world, they might still show up and bet into California's large takeout rates.

Everyday that goes by, an old horseplayer dies and is replaced (hopefully) by a younger player who is internet and tech savvy and does read message boards like this and can educate himself on the pitfalls of betting into a large takeout. Before you know it, almost everyone who is betting horses will have access to the internet and access to message boards like Pace Advantage and many great blogs around cyberspace. How then, will racetracks hide their takeout rates from the public then?

Bob Baffert says that David Israel and Keith Brackpool are part of 'positive momentum and strong leadership'.

I'd be willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that two random horseplayers won't be sitting around an Inglewood, Ca starbucks in the year 2020 drinking a 9 dollar latte and talking about how Israel and Brackpool saved California horse racing ten years earlier.

[DeanT]

Fairplex joins Los Al with handle declines. Reason : "slow economy"

http://www.drf.com/news/handle-declines-817-meeting

OMONA, Calif. – The 2010 Los Angeles County Fair meet finished a 15-day run of predictability Monday at Fairplex Park. There were few surprises. Favorites won nearly 45 percent of Thoroughbred races (71 for 158), Martin Pedroza won his 12th consecutive riding title, and high-volume Doug O’Neill topped the trainer standings for seventh time in nine years.

Faced with a slow economy and benefitting from only three pick-six carryovers during a 15-day meet, overall Fairplex handle slipped 8.17 percent to $75.4 million. Average daily handle was $5.02 million, the lowest since 1994.

More at link

[Sericm]

It amazes me the attacks on California race tracks by the majority of the posters on this site. First its the surfaces, now its the take-out. The average horse player either doesn't know about it or like I said doesn't care.

The arrogance of the big so called bettors that they would have any effect on the handle is astounding to me. If you don't like the surfaces then obviously your not playing the California tracks anyway! And if you are playing the California tracks then your a bunch of hypocrites.

And all this talk of Whales, what's that 1% or 2% of the betting population, and I really doubt that they are just playing California anyway so even if they did stop betting them it wouldn't make any difference.

To blame the drop in handle on a few bettors not playing is ludicrous. IT'S THE ECONOMY! People don't have the money to bet, go to any Casino on a friday or saturday night and they aren't as crowded as they used to be a few years ago.

Get over yourselve's people, if you don't like the surface or the take out then don't make the bet! It's as simple as that!

[Mike_412]

If it's the economy, shouldn't all tracks be down in handle then? How would you explain certain tracks that have seen an increase in handle? Did they break out their handy, dandy economic shield?

I should have used the quote feature. My question was for the response immediately prior to my post.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Fairplex joins Los Al with handle declines. Reason : "slow economy"

Slow economy is probably part of the reason. Smaller field size is probably part of the reason. Smaller field size is probably due to the slow economy.

Still, they did 5 million per day. That's not bad.

I look at the HANA Track Ratings and see they averaged about 370,000 per race last year. So they must have done around 330,000 this year.

Compared to a small market track like Canterbury, 60,000 per race, Fairplex is doing well -- if total handle is the only factor you look at.

The number that I would find interesting is the amount of money they kept for themselves this year compared to last.

A comparison of Average daily attendance for this year and last would also be interesting.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Sericm

The arrogance of the big so called bettors that they would have any effect on the handle is astounding to me.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Sericm

It amazes me the attacks on California race tracks by the majority of the posters on this site. First its the surfaces, now its the take-out. The average horse player either doesn't know about it or like I said doesn't care.

The arrogance of the big so called bettors that they would have any effect on the handle is astounding to me. If you don't like the surfaces then obviously your not playing the California tracks anyway! And if you are playing the California tracks then your a bunch of hypocrites.

And all this talk of Whales, what's that 1% or 2% of the betting population, and I really doubt that they are just playing California anyway so even if they did stop betting them it wouldn't make any difference.

To blame the drop in handle on a few bettors not playing is ludicrous. IT'S THE ECONOMY! People don't have the money to bet, go to any Casino on a friday or saturday night and they aren't as crowded as they used to be a few years ago.

Get over yourselve's people, if you don't like the surface or the take out then don't make the bet! It's as simple as that!

Believe you me, tracks notice if ONE large bettor leaves. Every dollar is accounted for, these higher ups at tracks have sophisticated printouts of every dollar and where it comes from. If a guy who bets 20 grand per day just decides to stop betting, they see it in their bottom line.

As far as your comments about the average horseplayer not knowing or caring, that might be true, they might not actually know what takeout is or how it affects them. But, what they DO know is how much money they have in their pocket. THey know when they are broke even if they don't know that takeout raises was a factor in their tapping out.

As far as an 'economy' argument goes, if the economy was the reason and only reason for racing's drop off, than every other business in america would have a dropoff too. This is not the case, not every business is suffering.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Fairplex joins Los Al with handle declines. Reason : "slow economy"

http://www.drf.com/news/handle-declines-817-meeting


More at link

Lets say that hypothetically, the economy was the reason. You're still supposed to come out and say, "even though the economy might have been a factor, we still have to do a better job getting people to bet our races. We are taking responsibility and we will try and do better next time"

Shirking responsibility is typical with racing execs, its never their fault.

[jelly]

Get over yourselve's people, if you don't like the surface or the take out then don't make the bet! It's as simple as that![/QUOTE]


overall Fairplex handle slipped 8.17 percent to $75.4 million. Average daily handle was $5.02 million, the lowest since 1994.


It looks like people are doing exactly that.

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Lets say that hypothetically, the economy was the reason. You're still supposed to come out and say, "even though the economy might have been a factor, we still have to do a better job getting people to bet our races. We are taking responsibility and we will try and do better next time"

Shirking responsibility is typical with racing execs, its never their fault.

It could be worse; they did not pull out the ol' Olympics excuse.

I wouldn't have thought of it myself but the sharp as a tack Los Alamitos Quarter Horse Racing Association said it on their packet presented to the CHRB for it's takeout increase debate.......

"The post takeout increase period includes competition from the Olympics and more bad weather"

[img]images/UBGX/E19.gif[/img]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...90&postcount=4

Lucky the Dodgers are out of the race. It could have been carnage.