2009 Travers Could Be One For The Ages

[Stevie Belmont]

Rachel Alexandra is ready for a race. How about the Travers Stakes? The mid-summer derby is less then two weeks away and it could easily become thee race of the year if her connections opt to enter her in this spot. The Haskell was a perfect spot, and that’s where she went to roll home an easy winner in the slop.

Impressive Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby would-be favorite Quality Road and the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird are definite for the mid-summer derby. The Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird is also set to go. The addition of Rachel Alexandra would make this race something we have not seen in a long time. If she runs, all three winners if this years Triple Crown races would show up at the same place at the same time on the same track. That would make this Travers Stakes a real showdown between the nations top 3-year-olds. Without much doubt in my mind the two best 3-year-old dirt horses in the United States would run against each other in a race that could be one for the ages. The kind of race you will be talking about for years to come...

The rest is here

http://thoroughbredzone.com/2009/08/19/the-2009-travers-stakes-could-be-one-for-the-ages/

[ghostyapper]

That would be quit a scene but I think rachel runs in the woodward and mtb goes to the penn derby.

Following high class stakes horses for years, I've come to expect disappointment.

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by ghostyapper

That would be quit a scene but I think rachel runs in the woodward and mtb goes to the penn derby.

Following high class stakes horses for years, I've come to expect disappointment.

Rachel races for breeding value now. No way will a loss be risked, and having to stay in front of MTB, SB, and QR at the end of 10 is a little much to ask of the speedy filly. If the track was overboard in favoring speed, slim chance.

jdl

[Stevie Belmont]

I don't think it will happen, but it would be something else...

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Rachel races for breeding value now

You mean the plan is to retire her, breed her to Curlin, and then SELL the offspring??

[Bochall]

I hate to be a pooper but I just don't think that MTB is of this ilk. If Quality Road and I Want Revenge had shown up for the Derby, it is my opine that MTB wouldn't have won. My question is will Quality bounce? He ran awfully fast in his return but looks like the fastest 3yr old BOY we have. He and Rachel is the race I want more than Rachel v Zen cuz I just don't see that ever happening. Jess Jackson is a sporting guy but he won't run her on polypoo...and I can't says I blame him.

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by Bochall

I hate to be a pooper but I just don't think that MTB is of this ilk. If Quality Road and I Want Revenge had shown up for the Derby, it is my opine that MTB wouldn't have won. My question is will Quality bounce? He ran awfully fast in his return but looks like the fastest 3yr old BOY we have. He and Rachel is the race I want more than Rachel v Zen cuz I just don't see that ever happening. Jess Jackson is a sporting guy but he won't run her on polypoo...and I can't says I blame him.

MTB joins a large group of horses that have shown over the years that the biggest difference in horses is not the amount of money paid for them. He was champion material going into the Derby,m and he still is. Just like Quality Road, the question there is, can he execute 10f in the manner that MTB and SB have shown that they can?

Jess Jackson has the image of a sporting guy, he won't run on poly because he knows that he'll likely get nailed again and lose a lot of value. A sporting guy would put up a purse himself to run where he wants to.

jdl

[Java Gold@TFT]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Rachel races for breeding value now. No way will a loss be risked, and having to stay in front of MTB, SB, and QR at the end of 10 is a little much to ask of the speedy filly. If the track was overboard in favoring speed, slim chance.

jdl

Yep, Jess bought her so he could sell her foals. That's the only breeding value in a mare. So he has already committed to two seasons with Curlin on his own farm and he is going to go out and sell them? Yea, right. Any race she runs in for the next two years will have absolutely ZERO effect on her breeding value. The only value that could be obtained would be if she produced strong runners from her first 3 crops. Jess isn't putting any of them up for sale. If she produces the winner of the 2013 Derby or Oaks then her breeding value goes up. Jess will still most likely keep any babies if that Rachel-Curlin colt does win a graded stakes in her first year as a broodmare. Which race she runs in next or any chance that she loses a race has absolutely no effect on her breeding value. If she has a stakes winning son then maybe it could affect his stud fee but it will never change her breeding value.

[Hanover1]

Originally Posted by Java Gold@TFT

Yep, Jess bought her so he could sell her foals. That's the only breeding value in a mare. So he has already committed to two seasons with Curlin on his own farm and he is going to go out and sell them? Yea, right. Any race she runs in for the next two years will have absolutely ZERO effect on her breeding value. The only value that could be obtained would be if she produced strong runners from her first 3 crops. Jess isn't putting any of them up for sale. If she produces the winner of the 2013 Derby or Oaks then her breeding value goes up. Jess will still most likely keep any babies if that Rachel-Curlin colt does win a graded stakes in her first year as a broodmare. Which race she runs in next or any chance that she loses a race has absolutely no effect on her breeding value. If she has a stakes winning son then maybe it could affect his stud fee but it will never change her breeding value.

You have this saga pegged. That is his exact intent. A mini sheik... Sadly, history shows me that great mares seldom throw great racehorses. You have to go 3-4 deep on maternal side to see racing influence. Hes breeding for the blookstock.

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by Hanover1

You have this saga pegged. That is his exact intent. A mini sheik... Sadly, history shows me that great mares seldom throw great racehorses. You have to go 3-4 deep on maternal side to see racing influence. Hes breeding for the blookstock.

This is wrong in so many ways. According to research published originally in the October 23, 2003 issue of The Blood-Horse, the breed average is only 1% graded SWs from starters, so the probability of any mare producing a high class foal is low. On the other hand, mares from obscure female families but which were stakes-placed or better produce 5% graded SWs while mares from strong female families but retired either placed or unplaced produce only 2.3% graded SWs. The first group also generates twice the average earnings per starter. Clearly, racing class trumps family in producing high class winners despite the relatively small probability of any mare producing a graded SW.

[Bochall]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

MTB joins a large group of horses that have shown over the years that the biggest difference in horses is not the amount of money paid for them. He was champion material going into the Derby,m and he still is. Just like Quality Road, the question there is, can he execute 10f in the manner that MTB and SB have shown that they can?

Jess Jackson has the image of a sporting guy, he won't run on poly because he knows that he'll likely get nailed again and lose a lot of value. A sporting guy would put up a purse himself to run where he wants to.

jdl

Time will tell if MTB lives up to his Derby run, but I do not see it happening. He is 0-3 since and I don't see him beating Quality, Rachel or older males. What happened in West Va???? Jess is a sporting guy IMO. The thought of Curlin trying the Arc would have been great, but he ain't a turf horse. Even bringing him back for last year was a sporting gesture. Just look at Street Sense, Hard Spun and many others who retired perfectly healthy at age 3. I don't know the answer, but can anyone tell me how many Horse of The Year winners return to race the next year?

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by Bochall

I don't see him beating Quality, Rachel or older males.

Depends on the distance, IMHO.

[GaryG]

I cannot imagine a scenario in which MTB would beat Quality Road, especially in view of the form cycles of each. Chip is going to squeeze the lemon until it is bone dry, if it is not already.