Synthetic Surfaces

[mountainman]

In preperation for an assignment to do some tv analysis at Presque Isle, I'm boning up on synthetic tracks. To lay the groundwork, I need a listing of facilities that have gone synthetic and what type of surface has been installed. To then lay a basic foundation for comparison with tapeta (Presque Isle's untested surface), I need the percentage of winning favorites on other synthetic tracks, and the winning percentage of first call(1/4 mile) leaders at both sprint and route distances. Can anyone supply this information?

[Scav]

Polytrack
Arlington Park
Keeneland
Woodbine
Del Mar

Cushion
Hollywood Park
Santa Anita

That is all I can think of

[Scav]

Originally Posted by mountainman

In preperation for an assignment to do some tv analysis at Presque Isle, I'm boning up on synthetic tracks. To lay the groundwork, I need a listing of facilities that have gone synthetic and what type of surface has been installed. To then lay a basic foundation for comparison with tapeta (Presque Isle's untested surface), I need the percentage of winning favorites on other synthetic tracks, and the winning percentage of first call(1/4 mile) leaders at both sprint and route distances. Can anyone supply this information?

Can't compare it to Tapeta becuase it hasn't been raced over yet. At least no races that I know of

[njcurveball]

The biggest key on Polytrack is how the jockey colony perceives any bias in it.

This weekend saw the best horses in the country run a mile and a quarter in 2:07. Many jocks rode that race like a turf race and in doing that eliminated their horses from having a chance.

Perhaps this new track will have some aggressive young riders who get their horses to the front and then hold on for large mutuels. That will make the rest of the jocks try the same tactics.


Front runners can win on any surface if the other jocks spend most of the race holding their horses. If you can, watch the replay of the Pacific Classic and check out Hello Sunday. If it were a true closers bias, a horse like that would need to be a SUper horse to hold on for 3rd after challenging the whole way.

Other tracks are not pertinent to this meet, unfortunately. Probably better to handicap the races like the track had no bias until proven wrong.

Jim

[levinmpa]

Beware. Not all synthetics are created equal. Racing on the Cushion Track is much more like dirt racing than Polytrack. Both surfaces can be manipulated by adding water, changing the nature of the track. The Poly seems much more temperature sensitive, hence all the controversy at Del Mar with the track playing one way in the morning, and different in the afternoon.

Golden Gate Fields in No. California is in the process of laying down their Tapeta surface, but they will not be racing there until early November.

[Light]

Here's a monkey wrench for your analysis. I just read this morning that BM,who is being forced out of business next year due to their refusal to install an artificial surface,actually has one. From the president of BM,Jack Liebau:

" It probably has as much synthetic material on top as Hollywood Park has,but it doesnt qualify as a synthetic track because it doesn't have the drainage system".

Makes me wonder how many other tracks do not have true dirt tracks that we assume are. This may make your study a bit inaccurate unless you know whats in the tracks you presume to be dirt.

[DanG]

Originally Posted by mountainman

In preperation for an assignment to do some tv analysis at Presque Isle, I'm boning up on synthetic tracks. To lay the groundwork, I need a listing of facilities that have gone synthetic and what type of surface has been installed. To then lay a basic foundation for comparison with tapeta (Presque Isle's untested surface), I need the percentage of winning favorites on other synthetic tracks, and the winning percentage of first call(1/4 mile) leaders at both sprint and route distances. Can anyone supply this information?

Guys;

Judging by the above quote I don’t think Mark is making direct comparisons; he wanted the data to point out the contrasts.

I don’t have time at the moment, but I'll check back later and if no one has run the queries I’ll post them.

[46zilzal]

Even various editions of the hallowed Polytrack can't even be compared accurately, so it stretches logic to the breaking point to try and make comparisons in between completely different products.

[DanG]

Round-1, quick and dirty. This is a bit of a rush job, so I apologize in advance for any typos, but to the best of my knowledge it’s accurate.

(Sample includes >5/15/2006, S = <8f, R = >7.5f)

• Average 1C, 1CL of winners:

 TRACK	DIST	FLD	1C	1CL
 AP	S	8.7	3.9	2.5
 AP	R	7.9	3.8	2.8
 DMR	S	8.9	3.9	2.1
 DMR	R	7.7	4.4	3.7
 HOL	S	8.8	4.0	2.5
 HOL	R	7.5	4.1	3.8
 KEE	S	10.0	4.8	2.6
 KEE	R	9.6	5.4	3.9
 TP	S	9.1	3.6	2.4
 TP	R	8.7	4.2	3.7
 WO	S	9.1	3.8	1.9
 WO	R	8.7	4.1	3.3

• Percentage of wire – wire winners:

TRACK	DIST	FLD	TOTAL	WW	WW%
 AP	S	8.7	327	73	22%
 AP	R	7.9	218	31	14%
 DMR	S	8.9	127	22	17%
 DMR	R	7.7	41	5	12%
 HOL	S	8.8	472	108	23%
 HOL	R	7.5	156	32	21%
 KEE	S	10.0	156	23	15%
 KEE	R	9.6	97	5	5%
 TP	S	9.1	580	143	25%
 TP	R	8.7	505	99	20%
 WO	S	9.1	953	255	27%
 WO	R	8.7	383	70	18%

• Synthetic tracks sorted by speed favoring tendencies. (>100% favors speed more than random expectation…)

 TRACK	DIST	POS%
 TP	S	127%
 WO	S	120%
 DMR	S	114%
 AP	S	110%
 HOL	S	110%
 WO	R	105%
 AP	R	105%
 TP	R	104%
 KEE	S	104%
 HOL	R	92%
 KEE	R	89%
 DMR	R	88%

Hope this helps. Any questions fire away…

BTW: Are you doing the in-house PID broadcast?

[Robert Fischer]

Polytrack A = some horses are bred well to wire the field at 6.5furlongs and below, is tiring for majority, routes depend heavily on pedigree and stamina
Arlington Park
Keeneland
Del Mar

Polytrack B severe kickback, advantage to frontrunners and wide racers
Turfway
Woodbine


Cushion = slower than dirt, hard on pure speed horses but horses can stalk and pounce , faster than polyA
Hollywood Park


Santa Anita??

[JustRalph]

Good Luck on your road trip ..........going to get off the mountain for a while huh? Have fun..........


who is going to carry these races? TVG-HRTV or both?

[Valuist]

Here's a non-Magna, non-CDI track that I can play....then I hear its a synth track.

[losealot]

I very much appreciate your taking the time to run this query on your database!

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by DanG

Round-1, quick and dirty. This is a bit of a rush job, so I apologize in advance for any typos, but to the best of my knowledge it’s accurate.

(Sample includes >5/15/2006, S = <8f, R = >7.5f)

• Average 1C, 1CL of winners:

 TRACK	DIST	FLD	1C	1CL
 AP	S	8.7	3.9	2.5
 AP	R	7.9	3.8	2.8
 DMR	S	8.9	3.9	2.1
 DMR	R	7.7	4.4	3.7
 HOL	S	8.8	4.0	2.5
 HOL	R	7.5	4.1	3.8
 KEE	S	10.0	4.8	2.6
 KEE	R	9.6	5.4	3.9
 TP	S	9.1	3.6	2.4
 TP	R	8.7	4.2	3.7
 WO	S	9.1	3.8	1.9
 WO	R	8.7	4.1	3.3

• Percentage of wire – wire winners:

TRACK	DIST	FLD	TOTAL	WW	WW%
 AP	S	8.7	327	73	22%
 AP	R	7.9	218	31	14%
 DMR	S	8.9	127	22	17%
 DMR	R	7.7	41	5	12%
 HOL	S	8.8	472	108	23%
 HOL	R	7.5	156	32	21%
 KEE	S	10.0	156	23	15%
 KEE	R	9.6	97	5	5%
 TP	S	9.1	580	143	25%
 TP	R	8.7	505	99	20%
 WO	S	9.1	953	255	27%
 WO	R	8.7	383	70	18%

• Synthetic tracks sorted by speed favoring tendencies. (>100% favors speed more than random expectation…)

 TRACK	DIST	POS%
 TP	S	127%
 WO	S	120%
 DMR	S	114%
 AP	S	110%
 HOL	S	110%
 WO	R	105%
 AP	R	105%
 TP	R	104%
 KEE	S	104%
 HOL	R	92%
 KEE	R	89%
 DMR	R	88%

Hope this helps. Any questions fire away…

BTW: Are you doing the in-house PID broadcast?

Thanks Dan. Very helpful. Since, as his ast., I am filling in for Mnr's racing secretary, Joe Narcavish, while he serves at PID's first meet, my workload will preclude my appearing often on PID's handicapping show. But I have been assigned to cohost up there as much as my Mnr duties permit. The plan is for Nancy and I to alternate making the journey on Mnr's dark nites-wed, thurs,and fri.