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Old 08-13-2007, 06:34 PM   #1
dav4463
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Favorites that are not m/l favorites

Has anyone ever done a study on horses that go off as the favorite in a race, but were not the morning line favorite?
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Old 08-13-2007, 06:54 PM   #2
hdcper
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Broke out by Morning Line Rank (Post time Favorites)

David,

This should do the trick.

Code:



     Data Window Settings:
     999 Divisor
     Surface: (ALL*)  Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\GoldJPR2007\pl_Favorites_1.txt)


     Data Summary         Win     Place      Show
     Mutuel Totals   30038.50  31668.30  31704.00
     Bet            -36472.00 -36472.00 -36472.00
     Gain            -6433.50  -4803.70  -4768.00

     Wins                6354     10125     12351
     Plays              18236     18236     18236
     PCT                .3484     .5552     .6773

     ROI               0.8236    0.8683    0.8693
     Avg Mut             4.73      3.13      2.57


     By: Morning Line Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays     Pct    Impact
                   1   -4608.00  24728.00    0.8137   4558  12364   .3687     1.0580  
                   2   -1056.40   6972.00    0.8485   1114   3486   .3196     0.9171  
                   3    -501.60   2826.00    0.8225    411   1413   .2909     0.8348  
                   4    -104.60   1204.00    0.9131    179    602   .2973     0.8534  
                   5     -52.50    436.00    0.8796     63    218   .2890     0.8294  
                   6     -41.60    162.00    0.7432     18     81   .2222     0.6378  
                   7     -53.80     94.00    0.4277      6     47   .1277     0.3664  
                   8     -10.40     30.00    0.6533      3     15   .2000     0.5740  
                   9       1.40     14.00    1.1000      2      7   .2857     0.8200  
                  10      -4.00      4.00    0.0000      0      2   .0000     0.0000  
                  11      -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1   .0000     0.0000  
                  12       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  13       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  14       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  15       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  16       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  17       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  18       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  
                  19       0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0   .0000     0.0000  


     By: 21 TheOdds

               >=Min       <Max      Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                0.00       0.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                0.00       0.50   -133.90   1098.00    0.8781    362    549     .6594
                0.50       1.00  -1192.10   6688.00    0.8218   1596   3344     .4773
                1.00       1.50  -1603.20   9516.00    0.8315   1799   4758     .3781
                1.50       2.00  -1741.90   9054.00    0.8076   1364   4527     .3013
                2.00       2.50  -1044.20   6244.00    0.8328    820   3122     .2627
                2.50       3.00   -586.30   2764.00    0.7879    298   1382     .2156
                3.00       3.50    -40.10    874.00    0.9541    100    437     .2288
                3.50       4.00    -61.60    192.00    0.6792     14     96     .1458
                4.00       4.50    -36.00     36.00    0.0000      0     18     .0000
                4.50       5.00      7.80      4.00    2.9500      1      2     .5000
                5.00       5.50     -2.00      2.00    0.0000      0      1     .0000
                5.50       6.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                6.00       6.50      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                6.50       7.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                7.00       7.50      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                7.50       8.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                8.00       8.50      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                8.50       9.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000
                9.00    9999.00      0.00      0.00    0.0000      0      0     .0000



Ending BankRoll:   $99.55
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll:     $501.80
Low BankRoll:      $99.55
Bet Percentage:    0.0100
Max Bet:           500.00
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Old 08-14-2007, 03:48 PM   #3
dav4463
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Thanks! I had been noticing many horses who were not morning line favorites that were being bet down to favoritism. I couldn't remember a single one of them winning.
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