How Do You Determine Class?

[Capper Al]

My posted class ratings have not been adjusted by handicapping. They are straight out of my program as is. The reason a third horse was include is in case of scratches and, as any handicapper should know, you look closely at the horse that just missed being included.

Raybo and I agree on three races for top class pick: races 2, 5, and 8.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Can you do that without considering time(speed)? That's the point. What are your alternative points of view to time?

I can pick 50% winners with my top 2 selections without any handicapping at all. And I can do it for as long as you want...even over thousands of races.

And this includes every track in the country...and even Canada.

And furthermore...I can post my selections right here...in real time.

Guaranteed!

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I can pick 50% winners with my top 2 selections without any handicapping at all. And I can do it for as long as you want...even over thousands of races.

And this includes every track in the country...and even Canada.

And furthermore...I can post my selections right here...in real time.

Guaranteed!

Join in. Post Friday's AP top two without using time (speed based), pace, fractional times, consensus picks, tote-board, or selector. Use just pure class.

[Light]

The top 2 betting favorites win 50% of the races statistically over the last several decades. Posting and winning 50% with your top 2 is snake oil.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Join in. Post Friday's AP top two without using time (speed based), pace, fractional times, consensus picks, tote-board, or selector. Use just pure class.

The point he was making, I assume, is picking 50% winners, not by class. I thought this thread was about class. Heck, the top 2 odds horses hit about 50% of the time don't they? That isn't the point of the thread, it's supposed to be about class, either traditional class methods or calculated class methods. At least that's what I thought anyway. Whatever!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Light

The top 2 betting favorites win 50% of the races statistically over the last several decades. Posting and winning 50% with your top 2 is snake oil.

There you go!

[raybo]

I think everyone needs to consider that class determinations are only a portion of the equation to making money, and probably not even a large portion at that, for most players. Too often, the obvious class horses pay very little, and will lose you money long term. The point, for those who want to be profitable, is making money long term, regardless of the method used.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

My posted class ratings have not been adjusted by handicapping. They are straight out of my program as is. The reason a third horse was include is in case of scratches and, as any handicapper should know, you look closely at the horse that just missed being included.

Raybo and I agree on three races for top class pick: races 2, 5, and 8.

My class horses are for Belmont today, yours are for AP tomorrow.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

I think everyone needs to consider that class determinations are only a portion of the equation to making money, and probably not even a large portion at that, for most players. Too often, the obvious class horses pay very little, and will lose you money long term. The point, for those who want to be profitable, is making money long term, regardless of the method used.

The main problem, IMO, is that "class" is not the "constant" that many players consider it to be. You cannot "freeze-frame" a horse's class...because it is largely dependant on other handicapping factors as well. There is a lot of "overlapping" among the different handicapping factors...so you can not, in good conscience, use terms like "pure class"...or "pure form"...

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The main problem, IMO, is that "class" is not the "constant" that many players consider it to be. You cannot "freeze-frame" a horse's class...because it is largely dependant on other handicapping factors as well. There is a lot of "overlapping" among the different handicapping factors...so you can not, in good conscience, use terms like "pure class"...or "pure form"...

I agree, that's why I made a form adjustment in my calculations. There is no such thing as "pure" anything, in racing, unless the horse is Secretariat of course. He's about as close to "pure" class as I've ever seen anyway.

I've said many times here that current form determines everything, class, speed, pace capabilities, distance capabilities, etc..

Class, IMO, cannot be used by itself, in a traditional class determination method, if your goal is to make long term profit. However, by including other factors in a performance-class method, in conjunction with value, can show long term profit.

I might mention that my "class" algorithm was created yesterday, in about 2 hours, strictly for this thread because of Al's invitation to post class ratings. I do not use this in my play. "Class", is included in my play through other calculated factors. In my program, there are "class" ratings, for purely comparison purposes, but they are strictly earnings based ratings, at qualified distances, and play no part in the picks produced by the program. They work well in some races and poorly in others, depending on other factors of the field and the race.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Are these class ratings or picks?

those are class ratings, and they are on the same scale as the bris speed figures.

[traynor]

I look forward eagerly to the explanations--pre-race or post-race--that address the thread topic. Namely, "How do you determine class?" NOT "Lookie me, lookie me, I got a secret and if you give me money maybe I'll tell you more."

I don't think anyone really cares whether the "posted selections" win or lose, because I don't think all that many people are willing to bet on other people's choices. If they are willing to do so, there are much better sources than freebie postings. I think the major interest is not which horse was selected in some specific race, but HOW it was selected, and WHY.

The thread was (and is) intended to trade information and ideas on the topic of methods for defining, measuring, and/or evaluating class.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There you go!

No tote-board was a condition. I was thinking why you might not see the importance of this. Programmers are like alchemist hunting for those magically numbers that will change their formulas into gold. The action is different from Paper and Pencil cappers.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by traynor

I don't think anyone really cares whether the "posted selections" win or lose, because I don't think all that many people are willing to bet on other people's choices.

I think the major interest is not which horse was selected in some specific race, but HOW it was selected, and WHY.

Exactly.

I have to add that any selection than is been made before the pools are open suffers from input shortage and should not be taken seriously; I never pay any attention to what public handicappers are suggesting, either in the TV or news papers and frankly I find it very strange that there people who still are using them as their main decision making engine!

The WHY a horse is selected most of the times requires an answer that involves the crowd's behavior and is tangible to the HOW (of course!)

Except special cases (like TC or BC events) I try not to study any race until the pools are open. I usually just eyeball tomorrow's program but nothing more than this. I have found this, to be my best approach for my style of handicapping and betting, that can be summarized in a handful of principles, very simple pace calculations and more than anything else application of game theory, something that has become the cornerstone of my approach.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by traynor

I look forward eagerly to the explanations--pre-race or post-race--that address the thread topic. Namely, "How do you determine class?" NOT "Lookie me, lookie me, I got a secret and if you give me money maybe I'll tell you more."

I don't think anyone really cares whether the "posted selections" win or lose, because I don't think all that many people are willing to bet on other people's choices. If they are willing to do so, there are much better sources than freebie postings. I think the major interest is not which horse was selected in some specific race, but HOW it was selected, and WHY.

The thread was (and is) intended to trade information and ideas on the topic of methods for defining, measuring, and/or evaluating class.

Follow the discussion. We talked about what we did. Then, putting some action behind our words, we posted. So now that we laid our cards down, you are insulting us? We can add insulting to your other characteristics, along with arrogant and a know it all. I and others honestly participated in good faith in this thread.