Can Stronach be convinced to try a third synthetic surface at Santa Anita?

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Andy

If possible, I just want to see data you produced presented in the same way as in the post i copied from another thread

You can argue use, data validation after if you want.

Charlie, I've got to make this quick, but in the next couple of days I hope to satisfy your request.

It's difficult, if not impossible, produce exactly the kinds of numbers Dr. Arthur gives on the synth vs. dirt numbers for the following reason. The CHRB didn't differentiate between surfaces in reporting fatalities in the Annual Reports prior to last years report. That being said, in the next couple of days I will post a table indicating the overall fatality rates (turf & main track) for various race meets from 2002 through 2007 inclusive, using fatalitity figures from the CHRB Annual Reports, and the figures for number of starters from the American Racing Manuals covering those years. I'll also go into more detail as to why the figures are a little more difficult to work with in the later period. OK?

[Kimsus]

Originally Posted by andymays

Please note that 50 of the 77 fatalities reported on dirt are from Los Alamitos. Absent the inclusion of the Los Alamitos fatalities, the report would show 27 fatalities on dirt vs. 43 fatalities on synthetics.

“Without the Los Alamitos fatalities, Dr. Arthur's conclusion regarding the fatality rate per 1,000 starts would be reversed and rightfully show that synthetic surfaces are significantly more harmful than dirt surfaces. He has promulgated more recent studies which continue to fly in the face of the experience of most California Horsemen.

I have one question, without Los Alamitos just how many California tracks are using dirt?

If I am understanding this premise correctly Fairplex and Los Alamitos were the 2 major players still using dirt in 07-08, if you take away one or the other from the study wouldn't that dramatically sway the argument to the pro dirt argument side? That would be a big asterisk wouldn't you agree?

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

Charlie, I've got to make this quick, but in the next couple of days I hope to satisfy your request.

It's difficult, if not impossible, produce exactly the kinds of numbers Dr. Arthur gives on the synth vs. dirt numbers for the following reason. The CHRB didn't differentiate between surfaces in reporting fatalities in the Annual Reports prior to last years report. That being said, in the next couple of days I will post a table indicating the overall fatality rates (turf & main track) for various race meets from 2002 through 2007 inclusive, using fatalitity figures from the CHRB Annual Reports, and the figures for number of starters from the American Racing Manuals covering those years. I'll also go into more detail as to why the figures are a little more difficult to work with in the later period. OK?

Thank you FB. Look forward to seeing the results.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Kimsus

I have one question, without Los Alamitos just how many California tracks are using dirt?

If I am understanding this premise correctly Fairplex and Los Alamitos were the 2 major players still using dirt in 07-08, if you take away one or the other from the study wouldn't that dramatically sway the argument to the pro dirt argument side? That would be a big asterisk wouldn't you agree?

Santa Rosa, Fresno, Pleasanton, Ferndale. Solano, Stockton, Sacramento

[Spendabuck85]

From drf.com:
In a reversal of a January announcement that the Pro-Ride surface would be replaced at the conclusion of the winter meet, Santa Anita will keep the surface in place for the time being, Frank Stronach, the chairman of the two companies that control the track, said on Sunday.
Stronach said that to replace the main track under current conditions would be "throwing money down in an open pit" unless he were allowed to run the track with less regulation

Full article at:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/111144.html

[Tom]

Frankeeeeee power play?