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Old 01-15-2010, 11:04 AM   #16
onefast99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by illinoisbred
Charlie Whittingham once said -horses are like strawberries, they can go bad over night. A horse can win for 25,000 and be a mere shadow of that 3 weeks later. Most small outfits never seem to drop "a horse gone bad " far enough to either win or risk losing the horse.
Prior to Kelly breen getting the Halls as his new owners he also made a nice living off the drops, in fact it added to two MP training titles.
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Old 01-15-2010, 11:51 AM   #17
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Indy Ride in yesterdays third at Santa Anita was a suspicious dropper. His race before was a suspicious drop as well. Not a glaring example of a suspicious dropper but one nonetheless.

The race on November 29th was a key race and Indy Ride ran a respectable beyer off a two month layoff. You would think they would give it another shot at the same level but they dropped into 25k claimers nw2L and ran third. The race yesterday was 12.5k nw2l and Indy ride ran third. Spawr was clearly hoping someone claimed him (he wasn't even gelded before the last two starts and is by a fairly hot sire Candy Ride). He got his wish yesterday when Jack Carava claimed him.

The winner of the race was dropping (Just Heat) but it was not a suspicious drop because the gelding was claimed out of a 12.5cl nw2l in August at Del Mar.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Suspicious Drop Example PP's Indy Ride.pdf (148.3 KB, 13 views)
File Type: pdf Suspicious Drop Example Chart.pdf (48.9 KB, 8 views)

Last edited by andymays; 01-15-2010 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 01-15-2010, 12:20 PM   #18
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One of my favorite go against plays is a runner dropping in class off of a good race. Even better if it has a bad workout pattern. For example, in its last race it finished 3rd beaten 1 length for a claiming price of 25k. The last race was 35 days ago. It either shows no published works, or at most, one short slow breeze since that race. It is entered today for 20 or even 16k. A horse like this will go off a very short price, often odds on, and I will attempt to beat it every time. Do these types win? Sure they do, but the roi on this kind must be horrible. They dont give race horses away, and it is as if the barn is hanging a sign on the animal stating that it is walking on eggs, and they hope that it holds together enough to get at least a piece of the purse, and they very much want it to be claimed. This type of suspicious drop only applies to claiming races. A horse that has been getting pieces of stake races that shows up in an allowance race for which it still is eligible for can be a very good wager, although at a likely short price. A good example of the shaky dropper type is the example given above by Andy.

Last edited by BlueShoe; 01-15-2010 at 12:24 PM.
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Old 01-15-2010, 12:40 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueShoe
One of my favorite go against plays is a runner dropping in class off of a good race. Even better if it has a bad workout pattern. For example, in its last race it finished 3rd beaten 1 length for a claiming price of 25k. The last race was 35 days ago. It either shows no published works, or at most, one short slow breeze since that race. It is entered today for 20 or even 16k. A horse like this will go off a very short price, often odds on, and I will attempt to beat it every time. Do these types win? Sure they do, but the roi on this kind must be horrible. They dont give race horses away, and it is as if the barn is hanging a sign on the animal stating that it is walking on eggs, and they hope that it holds together enough to get at least a piece of the purse, and they very much want it to be claimed. This type of suspicious drop only applies to claiming races. A horse that has been getting pieces of stake races that shows up in an allowance race for which it still is eligible for can be a very good wager, although at a likely short price. A good example of the shaky dropper type is the example given above by Andy.

Good Example!

That's why it's important to read the PP's from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced. Players who don't do that like "program" players or sheet players who only go by recent numbers, are at a dissadvantage if they don't consider workouts since raced and don't read the PP's from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced.

Last edited by andymays; 01-15-2010 at 12:41 PM.
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Old 01-15-2010, 12:45 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
That's why it's important to read the PP's from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced.
Absolutely. Just imagine you are training the horse. This makes it clear who are the competent trainers and who are just winging it.
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Old 01-15-2010, 12:53 PM   #21
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I watch their PRE-RACE workouts and see if they are not warming up like a healthy horse does,I bang out exactas leaving them out. Made nice money over the years on this move.

I see these horses with short strides going to the gate with little pre-race workout and people keep plowing money on them?
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Old 01-15-2010, 01:57 PM   #22
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A drop and a fast WO. The receipe for a torn up ticket.
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Old 01-16-2010, 12:21 AM   #23
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Another one bite the dust @the big A yesterday Wild Tonga finished dead last at odds on..dropping down to the basement...the public made this horse odds on..
I ask the question should horses with suspicious class drops be scratch?
Me personally i just pass on the race..IMO i think they should be scratch..
I dislike the attitude of: If I can't figure out how to deal with a dilemma it should be banned.
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Old 01-16-2010, 01:24 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by therussmeister
I dislike the attitude of: If I can't figure out how to deal with a dilemma it should be banned.



Better not bet Aqu in winter becasue there are scores of 7.5k races like the Wild CONGA..not (TONGA ) 3rd race on 13th.
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Old 01-16-2010, 02:20 AM   #25
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Here is an example from today fridays 5th at Santa Anita. The 4-5 favorite Eternally Fast finished 2nd beaten half a length on Oct 30 at SA for a claiming price of 50,000. Kept away for seven weeks he surfaced for 32,000 at HOL. on Dec 19. He wired his field over a very glib surface winning by four lengths. Off of that performance he would appear to have been capable of stepping up and repeating against 40 or 50k company, or perhaps even a first level allowance. This is assuming that he was sound. The gap between races and the double class drop raised the first flag. The second went up because the claiming price in todays race for 3yr. olds is 25,000. He is dropping again one level after an impressive win against tougher. After a tough trip from his outside post Eternally Fast did manage to finish 2nd, but he did lose the race. On paper, his speed and pace figs were much the best, but those two drops in a row after good races told us that this runner may not have been completely sound.
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Old 01-16-2010, 05:44 AM   #26
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I don't get the dropping in class mania. I never wager them. I wonder how many $$ a week are lost by that "dropping" angle?

I look hard for an opportunity to play a horse going UP in class. I love a trainer who believes in a horse, and in themselves.

Besides, the dropping in class angle is usually chalk.
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Old 01-16-2010, 06:41 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueShoe
Here is an example from today fridays 5th at Santa Anita. The 4-5 favorite Eternally Fast finished 2nd beaten half a length on Oct 30 at SA for a claiming price of 50,000. Kept away for seven weeks he surfaced for 32,000 at HOL. on Dec 19. He wired his field over a very glib surface winning by four lengths. Off of that performance he would appear to have been capable of stepping up and repeating against 40 or 50k company, or perhaps even a first level allowance. This is assuming that he was sound. The gap between races and the double class drop raised the first flag. The second went up because the claiming price in todays race for 3yr. olds is 25,000. He is dropping again one level after an impressive win against tougher. After a tough trip from his outside post Eternally Fast did manage to finish 2nd, but he did lose the race. On paper, his speed and pace figs were much the best, but those two drops in a row after good races told us that this runner may not have been completely sound.
Sharp post, perfectly laid out!
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Old 01-16-2010, 08:44 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
I dislike the attitude of: If I can't figure out how to deal with a dilemma it should be banned.
First and foremost if you read it my post...i do deal with the dilemma i pass the race..
Does anyone have any research on horses who make suspicious drops?How many win?breakdown?return lame?claimed?

Last edited by only11; 01-16-2010 at 08:46 AM.
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Old 01-16-2010, 11:45 AM   #29
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This might be slightly off topic,but suspicious drops usually qualifies under the false favorite banner.For me within a race week I can usually find at least a handful of them(that I'm right about).And specifically making it a point to find a favorite I absolutely loathe.Because if you are right,nearly every betting scenario is overlaid.Routine 4-1 shots and up coupled with exactas $80 and up are common when one of these favorites tank.Any player should salivate over the opportunity at hand.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:04 PM   #30
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Fire Sale

2-14-18

GP R5

Admiral Jimmy (3-5 ML)


Pletcher is hard to question when it comes
to putting over winners at Gulfstream (29%)
This horse has been off since September,
is stakes placed, and towers above these
on class. In for a $12500 tag, though,
you can hear the shouts of "CLAIM ME"
from a mile away.

I'll let him win without any of my money on him.
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