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Old 02-23-2018, 04:58 PM   #106
thaskalos
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I couldn't have said it any better.

"Racetrack officials who believe they have met the enemy have not met the truly dangerous competition at all. Lotteries and casino games will not be life-threatening to horse racing, but sports betting may. Betting on sports is also a positive-expectation game. Skillful players can win. Players can study the sport, collect the information they need, analyze specific situations, and bet on outcomes when they think they have the edge.

Sports bettors are eerily similar to horse bettors. The players form highly practiced opinions, and like to bet on them. If track officials want to know where the authentic competition for the racetrack lurks, it's sports betting. Someday, maybe soon, maybe not so soon, sports betting in America will be legalized. Thoroughbred racing had best be properly prepared."

-- James Quinn (ON TRACK/ OFF TRACK: Playing the Horses in Troubled Times...circa 1996)
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Old 02-24-2018, 06:43 PM   #107
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^ I'm a sports bettor who loves horse racing, but looks at it as another entity that provides me with entertainment during spots or lulls in the year otherwise, precisely due to Quinn's point and what everyone knows (the essentially double vig or more that horses carries over sports).

Do you think the decision which is likely to overturn PASPA will cause a large consolidation effort around the states? It's clear historically, as you and Quinn suggest, that any type of action (up til now just gambling expansion out of Vegas in general) will hurt horses, which then causes a negative feedback loop by tracks with further bad decisions affecting takeout and as a result, handle.

As a big racing day guy, I hope at least the great parts of the sport are maintained, of course. The SCOTUS moment/decision on such an unconstitutional law has finally arrived.

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Old 02-24-2018, 06:51 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by menifee View Post
The smartest way to subsidize racing would be to subsidize demand, not supply. Hopefully, they will get it right this time. There are tremendous agricultural benefits by subsidizing racing, but the Racino experiment has showed you cannot blindly subsidize purses and expect those benefits to be enjoyed by many.
What is the proper action to "subsidize demand"? You said what the subsidization of supply was, which didn't work.

Monmouth should be a great combination of both. Getting more people to the track can only help. So maybe the compromise has to be that you bet sports LIVE, ie, you only get a license if you have a live requirement, no (internet) betting that makes it, in a sense, too convenient and only really rewarding models that are ADW types. Lots of people won't like that, but it would be interesting, and certainly a boon to tracks.
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Old 02-24-2018, 07:46 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
^ I'm a sports bettor who loves horse racing, but looks at it as another entity that provides me with entertainment during spots or lulls in the year otherwise, precisely due to Quinn's point and what everyone knows (the essentially double vig or more that horses carries over sports).

Do you think the decision which is likely to overturn PASPA will cause a large consolidation effort around the states? It's clear historically, as you and Quinn suggest, that any type of action (up til now just gambling expansion out of Vegas in general) will hurt horses, which then causes a negative feedback loop by tracks with further bad decisions affecting takeout and as a result, handle.

As a big racing day guy, I hope at least the great parts of the sport are maintained, of course. The SCOTUS moment/decision on such an unconstitutional law has finally arrived.

avgolemono
Those who think that sports-betting will be confined to the premises of the racetracks have their heads stuck in the sand. Sports-betting is too big of an enterprise to be restricted to being a "partner" of a dying industry like horse racing. Soon after sports-betting is legalized, it will be swept up by the internet world...and it will be offered widely in a myriad forms. The "illegal" sports-betting websites currently offer "live betting", where the bettor can keep betting as the game goes on...and, take my word for it, this provides more betting "action" than any sports-fan can handle. The days where you placed your sports-bet and waited for 3 hours to know if you won or not have been over for a long time.

IMO...sports-betting and horse racing cannot peacefully coexist. And...it doesn't take a genius to realize who the casualty will be.
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Old 02-24-2018, 10:38 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
What is the proper action to "subsidize demand"? You said what the subsidization of supply was, which didn't work.

Monmouth should be a great combination of both. Getting more people to the track can only help. So maybe the compromise has to be that you bet sports LIVE, ie, you only get a license if you have a live requirement, no (internet) betting that makes it, in a sense, too convenient and only really rewarding models that are ADW types. Lots of people won't like that, but it would be interesting, and certainly a boon to tracks.
There are a couple of ways to do it. One would be allow to create rebating programs with RHDF funds for bets on local races. Alternatively, you could allow bettors to deduct local race losses on their state tax returns and fill that budget hole with RHDF funds. Essentially, you are just trying to create churn and handle. You cannot subsidize the track, however. Bad policy.
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Old 02-25-2018, 10:54 AM   #111
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Those who think that sports-betting will be confined to the premises of the racetracks have their heads stuck in the sand. Sports-betting is too big of an enterprise to be restricted to being a "partner" of a dying industry like horse racing. Soon after sports-betting is legalized, it will be swept up by the internet world...and it will be offered widely in a myriad forms. The "illegal" sports-betting websites currently offer "live betting", where the bettor can keep betting as the game goes on...and, take my word for it, this provides more betting "action" than any sports-fan can handle. The days where you placed your sports-bet and waited for 3 hours to know if you won or not have been over for a long time.

IMO...sports-betting and horse racing cannot peacefully coexist. And...it doesn't take a genius to realize who the casualty will be.
I'm sad to say that this is the likely, null hypothesis.

So, prediction time, thaskalos:

If on March 5 a ruling comes down in part for New Jersey, or full for all states who want to pass legislation, what becomes of racing in 5 years? 10?
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Old 02-25-2018, 10:57 AM   #112
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There are a couple of ways to do it. One would be allow to create rebating programs with RHDF funds for bets on local races. Alternatively, you could allow bettors to deduct local race losses on their state tax returns and fill that budget hole with RHDF funds. Essentially, you are just trying to create churn and handle. You cannot subsidize the track, however. Bad policy.
Thanks for the answer. Good stuff, mate. I have to say, I might make my way to a local track even for simulcasting, if they allowed that, if I could write off the state portion. As opposed to going to a more convenient (OTB) location. That's mostly because I'm a large multirace player though. I can't imagine most others would choose that, but hey, there is a lot of strength in numbers, so maybe they vastly outweigh guys like me.
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:04 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
What is the proper action to "subsidize demand"? You said what the subsidization of supply was, which didn't work.

Monmouth should be a great combination of both. Getting more people to the track can only help. So maybe the compromise has to be that you bet sports LIVE, ie, you only get a license if you have a live requirement, no (internet) betting that makes it, in a sense, too convenient and only really rewarding models that are ADW types. Lots of people won't like that, but it would be interesting, and certainly a boon to tracks.
In the UK, lots of tracks have sports books inside. lots of people in there, lots of people who pay good money to get inside the track and watch racing. I was at the Newmarket during the July meeting in 2012 and they were showing a cricket match. Racing and sports betting co exist in the UK rather nicely, they also can bet sports at home using bookies or betfair exchange. Yet they show up at the track.

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Old 02-28-2018, 04:39 PM   #114
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In the UK, lots of tracks have sports books inside. lots of people in there, lots of people who pay good money to get inside the track and watch racing. I was at the Newmarket during the July meeting in 2012 and they were showing a cricket match. Racing and sports betting co exist in the UK rather nicely, they also can bet sports at home using bookies or betfair exchange. Yet they show up at the track.

Allan
Yeah. It's probably better to look at horse racing as a FORM of sports betting. It actually goes along nicely as an option along with other sports. Heck, that's what happens at every race and sports book in Nevada and New Jersey.

The ultimate problem is that there aren't enough Americans interested in horse racing outside of the Triple Crown right now. Get that number up and horse racing will do just fine against other sports. If that number decreases, we are in deep trouble as more sports betting becomes available.
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:16 PM   #115
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outside hope

There is an outside hope of normal sports bettors or average joes who now can bet sports easily also seeing the horses run and figure, "why not try betting those?".

The problem I see with that, given the Vegas reality of it already existing (and racebooks dominate in screens and square footage), is that learning racing and reading the form is a daunting task = too much activation energy.

I handicap for friends to pass the time before we watch ball games during March Madness in Vegas. They love it because it's exciting, different kind of action, and lucky for them, I'm a good handicapper. But they have no clue about picking winners and I think most think that I'm odd being interested in what they perceive is an "old man's" game.

It does suck being on the west coast for racing though, mostly by early afternoon all that's left is the late Santa Anita card.
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Old 03-14-2018, 05:19 PM   #116
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Old 03-14-2018, 11:02 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
"Racetrack officials who believe they have met the enemy have not met the truly dangerous competition at all. Lotteries and casino games will not be life-threatening to horse racing, but sports betting may. Betting on sports is also a positive-expectation game. Skillful players can win. Players can study the sport, collect the information they need, analyze specific situations, and bet on outcomes when they think they have the edge.

Sports bettors are eerily similar to horse bettors. The players form highly practiced opinions, and like to bet on them. If track officials want to know where the authentic competition for the racetrack lurks, it's sports betting. Someday, maybe soon, maybe not so soon, sports betting in America will be legalized. Thoroughbred racing had best be properly prepared."

-- James Quinn (ON TRACK/ OFF TRACK: Playing the Horses in Troubled Times...circa 1996)
If I'm interpreting this correctly, the author is saying that sports betting will hurt racing because it's perceived as a game of skill and so one can obtain + edge? If so, that sounds like a good thing. I'd submit that if you're looking for a form of gambling where one can obtain positive edge AND put down large amounts of money, racing is the way to go.* If the above is what sports gamblers are looking for then horse racing should be in a golden age...

*Note I'm not saying that horse racing is easier to win at necessarily. I'm saying that for the most talented programmers/statisticians/etc, my guess is horse racing is the most profitable avenue. The author of the book "Gambling Wizards" says the same...
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Old 03-15-2018, 01:08 AM   #118
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If I'm interpreting this correctly, the author is saying that sports betting will hurt racing because it's perceived as a game of skill and so one can obtain + edge? If so, that sounds like a good thing. I'd submit that if you're looking for a form of gambling where one can obtain positive edge AND put down large amounts of money, racing is the way to go.* If the above is what sports gamblers are looking for then horse racing should be in a golden age...

*Note I'm not saying that horse racing is easier to win at necessarily. I'm saying that for the most talented programmers/statisticians/etc, my guess is horse racing is the most profitable avenue. The author of the book "Gambling Wizards" says the same...
I can't agree with you on this. Sports-betting allows much larger wagers than horse racing does...simply because the sports-betting wagers are FIXED, and do not adversely affect the bettor who makes them. Sports-betting also allows the bettor to hold down a regular job, and tend to his family obligations, while still seriously engaging in his gambling endeavor...while horse racing is run during the time of day that is considered very inconvenient for the vast majority of its prospective customers who happen to hold down regular jobs. And let's not even bother to address the "integrity factor" involved in these two competing gambling venues.

All in all...I believe that sports-betting offers advantages to the serious bettor that horse racing cannot even BEGIN to approach.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:09 AM   #119
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I can't agree with you on this. Sports-betting allows much larger wagers than horse racing does...simply because the sports-betting wagers are FIXED, and do not adversely affect the bettor who makes them. Sports-betting also allows the bettor to hold down a regular job, and tend to his family obligations, while still seriously engaging in his gambling endeavor...while horse racing is run during the time of day that is considered very inconvenient for the vast majority of its prospective customers who happen to hold down regular jobs. And let's not even bother to address the "integrity factor" involved in these two competing gambling venues.

All in all...I believe that sports-betting offers advantages to the serious bettor that horse racing cannot even BEGIN to approach.
1. Does sports betting really allow larger wagers? Don't books sometimes refuse your action?

2. Sports are contested on weekdays just like horse racing is.

3. Obviously there are more betting shenanigans in horse racing, but on the other hand there is an aspect of point spreads that is analogous, which is that teams aren't supposed to try to beat the spread and can be punished for caring about it, whereas in horse racing, it is the opposite- participants can be punished for not trying hard on behalf of the people who bet their horses.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:21 AM   #120
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1. Does sports betting really allow larger wagers? Don't books sometimes refuse your action?

2. Sports are contested on weekdays just like horse racing is.

3. Obviously there are more betting shenanigans in horse racing, but on the other hand there is an aspect of point spreads that is analogous, which is that teams aren't supposed to try to beat the spread and can be punished for caring about it, whereas in horse racing, it is the opposite- participants can be punished for not trying hard on behalf of the people who bet their horses.
1. No self-respecting bookie would ever refuse a customer's wager. If you are a proven winning player, then the bookie may even offer you a "bonus" for betting with him...because then he can use your sound betting knowledge to his own advantage.

2. Yes...sports are contested on the weekdays. But they don't obligate you to immerse yourself in them for at least four hours during the time of day when you need to show up at your job.

3. If we can't even agree that our professional sports are more "honest" than the horse races are...then the two of us really have nothing more to talk about.
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