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Old 02-14-2018, 05:51 PM   #61
ultracapper
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Comparing the take on sports wagering and horse racing is like comparing a '56 Ford pickup and the space shuttle. When the casinos must build the stadiums, set up the leagues, pay the athletes, rely heavily on the gambler to pay for a big chunk of it, and then administer the entire thing, and still offer 110/100, now we can talk apples to apples.

If the casinos had to run the NFL in the same manner track owners have to run horse racing, there'd be a bank of 500 slot machines at the entrance to Levi Stadium to help make the money to pay Jimmy Garrapollo for the next 5 years.

As for Betfair, if all horse racing action went through them, the horse racing industry would be dead in 2 weeks. The leaches in horse racing don't add a thing to the survival of the game.

I'm not giving the powers that be a pass, just saying that they are in a different situation than just about any other form of gambling.
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Old 02-14-2018, 06:14 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
Comparing the take on sports wagering and horse racing is like comparing a '56 Ford pickup and the space shuttle. When the casinos must build the stadiums, set up the leagues, pay the athletes, rely heavily on the gambler to pay for a big chunk of it, and then administer the entire thing, and still offer 110/100, now we can talk apples to apples.

If the casinos had to run the NFL in the same manner track owners have to run horse racing, there'd be a bank of 500 slot machines at the entrance to Levi Stadium to help make the money to pay Jimmy Garrapollo for the next 5 years.

As for Betfair, if all horse racing action went through them, the horse racing industry would be dead in 2 weeks. The leaches in horse racing don't add a thing to the survival of the game.

I'm not giving the powers that be a pass, just saying that they are in a different situation than just about any other form of gambling.
In the end it doesn't really matter. Blended takeout on horse racing is 20+ percent. Sports betting is sub 5%. Gamblers don't care about the costs to put on the show, nor should they. If horse racing can't get costs under control to the point that it is a viable gambling game, it will lose. That is the death spiral we are in. Rather than try to compete, racing just keeps raising the price. It will never work long term.

The irony is the game would be nearing death already if not for tracks giving big takeout cuts to the biggest bettors. It has paused the death spiral for a while, but it won't last. You can only fool people for so long.
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Old 02-14-2018, 06:28 PM   #63
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Interesting how the NBA is trying to stick its greedy hands into the mix, for a so-called "integrity tax". Note to Adam Silver: you should be thankful that sports betting draws attention to a God awful boring 82 game season. Trying to impose a tax that will amount to 20% of sportsbooks revenues is ridiculous, as that would get passed on to the public.

This sports betting thing is no slam dunk. Between the greediness of politicians and league commissioners, it could be poorly run.
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Old 02-14-2018, 06:31 PM   #64
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Horse racing has no fan base. Other sports are regularly on TV, not HRacing. The leagues make huge amounts of revenue selling commercial time during their events, not HRing. In Seattle, a city with no team, the NBA sells exponentially more swag than Emerald Downs ever will. The sale of LeBron James jerseys at Northgate Mall alone out paces the sales at the EMD gift shop for an entire meet.

A body with no head is just a carcass. I have no idea how horse racing would get around state involvement to form a national executive board, one with teeth, but that is what is needed, if for no other reason than to coordinate marketing.

We've had this discussion here a million times. No reason to bring it up here. But other sports aren't reliant on gambling to survive. The NFL, MLB, and the NBA would all be every bit as healthy as they are now if gambling on their games were outlawed and pushed back into the rear rooms of the laundry mats.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:03 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
Comparing the take on sports wagering and horse racing is like comparing a '56 Ford pickup and the space shuttle. When the casinos must build the stadiums, set up the leagues, pay the athletes, rely heavily on the gambler to pay for a big chunk of it, and then administer the entire thing, and still offer 110/100, now we can talk apples to apples.

If the casinos had to run the NFL in the same manner track owners have to run horse racing, there'd be a bank of 500 slot machines at the entrance to Levi Stadium to help make the money to pay Jimmy Garrapollo for the next 5 years.

As for Betfair, if all horse racing action went through them, the horse racing industry would be dead in 2 weeks. The leaches in horse racing don't add a thing to the survival of the game.

I'm not giving the powers that be a pass, just saying that they are in a different situation than just about any other form of gambling.
Regarding leaches, aren't whales leaches? They bet 2 Billion a year supposedly(maybe more) and if they are extracting 5% out of this game (and I suspect they are and perhaps more) they are extracting 100 million from this game each year. Racing has unwittingly made them a fairly big partner (and in the eyes of racing too important to lose) causing extreme detriment to their regular customers.. Some argue there is a tradeoff. I don't see the tradeoff. I think you are all (anyone who sees it as a tradeoff ) drinking the Kool Aid. Whatever they bring to the game in volume they take away from the game in sustainability and growth. Long term numbers show that. Common sense shows that (does it take Einstein to realize that when hedge fund types are investing millions before they make their first bet, that rebates are leaving a huge slice of the pie for the taking?).

So to put it bluntly, racing has two options adapt or die (where did I come up with that one?). You see PA, a lot of adapting can be done to the detriment of racing . Regular horseplayers can limit their play to carryover, off site tournament and low takeout situations. Horseplayers can make their bets offshore and get up to 8% rebates and racing won't see a dime of it. Or horseplayers can just decide it isn't worth the effort and just flee the game. Many horseplayers are adapting (just not your way) and racing will ultimately die unless it adapts to the current marketplace.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:03 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post

We've had this discussion here a million times. No reason to bring it up here. But other sports aren't reliant on gambling to survive. The NFL, MLB, and the NBA would all be every bit as healthy as they are now if gambling on their games were outlawed and pushed back into the rear rooms of the laundry mats.
How popular would the NFL be without gambling and fantasy leagues? It would be a niche sport. There would be absolutely no reason for the person in Florida to watch Cleveland playing Buffalo.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:45 PM   #67
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Regarding leaches, aren't whales leaches? They bet 2 Billion a year supposedly(maybe more) and if they are extracting 5% out of this game (and I suspect they are and perhaps more) they are extracting 100 million from this game each year. Racing has unwittingly made them a fairly big partner (and in the eyes of racing too important to lose) causing extreme detriment to their regular customers.. Some argue there is a tradeoff. I don't see the tradeoff. I think you are all (anyone who sees it as a tradeoff ) drinking the Kool Aid. Whatever they bring to the game in volume they take away from the game in sustainability and growth. Long term numbers show that. Common sense shows that (does it take Einstein to realize that when hedge fund types are investing millions before they make their first bet, that rebates are leaving a huge slice of the pie for the taking?).

So to put it bluntly, racing has two options adapt or die (where did I come up with that one?). You see PA, a lot of adapting can be done to the detriment of racing . Regular horseplayers can limit their play to carryover, off site tournament and low takeout situations. Horseplayers can make their bets offshore and get up to 8% rebates and racing won't see a dime of it. Or horseplayers can just decide it isn't worth the effort and just flee the game. Many horseplayers are adapting (just not your way) and racing will ultimately die unless it adapts to the current marketplace.
When I said leaches, I meant those that don't contribute to the pools. The whales are leaches, and every bit as dangerous, but of a different stripe.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:49 PM   #68
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How popular would the NFL be without gambling and fantasy leagues? It would be a niche sport. There would be absolutely no reason for the person in Florida to watch Cleveland playing Buffalo.
How do you subtract somebody's reputation points, because you should lose like half of them just for this incredible blithering nonsense. The NFL was so popular after the Colts-Giants Championship game of 1959 that a second, competing major league was able to take hold. Then after the Colt-Jet Super Bowl, became so popular that the two leagues merged, and all but took over Monday Night TV in the next decade.
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Old 02-14-2018, 08:58 PM   #69
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How popular would the NFL be without gambling and fantasy leagues? It would be a niche sport. There would be absolutely no reason for the person in Florida to watch Cleveland playing Buffalo.
So true. Most of my co-workers only care about football because of fantasy and 20 years ago my friends and I only cared because of gambling.

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Old 02-14-2018, 09:06 PM   #70
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In the end it doesn't really matter. Blended takeout on horse racing is 20+ percent. Sports betting is sub 5%. Gamblers don't care about the costs to put on the show, nor should they. If horse racing can't get costs under control to the point that it is a viable gambling game, it will lose. That is the death spiral we are in. Rather than try to compete, racing just keeps raising the price. It will never work long term.

The irony is the game would be nearing death already if not for tracks giving big takeout cuts to the biggest bettors. It has paused the death spiral for a while, but it won't last. You can only fool people for so long.
The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that all bettors care equally about takeout.

What is the most profitable strategy if some bettors care a lot about takeout and some don't?

Answer that question and it leads inexorably to rebate shops.
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:26 PM   #71
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In the end it doesn't really matter. Blended takeout on horse racing is 20+ percent. Sports betting is sub 5%. Gamblers don't care about the costs to put on the show, nor should they. If horse racing can't get costs under control to the point that it is a viable gambling game, it will lose. That is the death spiral we are in. Rather than try to compete, racing just keeps raising the price. It will never work long term.

The irony is the game would be nearing death already if not for tracks giving big takeout cuts to the biggest bettors. It has paused the death spiral for a while, but it won't last. You can only fool people for so long.

Let me ask you this.

Say, in a perfect world, US horse racing lowered takeout to 5%
across the board. What effect do you think that would have?

I know what I think.
Interested to know your thoughts.
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:47 PM   #72
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Let me ask you this.

Say, in a perfect world, US horse racing lowered takeout to 5%
across the board. What effect do you think that would have?

I know what I think.
Interested to know your thoughts.
I would never expect 5%, but if that happened, obviously I think betting would increase by a lot. You'd essentially be giving everyone about a 15% rebate overnight. Would it be enough to make up for lost revenue? Not initially, for sure. Eventually, probably.

But of course there are always problems with what ifs. Race tracks would have to start taking the bets themselves, no middle men. They'd have to have deals in place with OTBs, each other, the state, and horsemen.
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:51 PM   #73
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The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that all bettors care equally about takeout.

What is the most profitable strategy if some bettors care a lot about takeout and some don't?

Answer that question and it leads inexorably to rebate shops.
It really doesn't matter that much if bettors think they care. If they are going through the money too fast, churn stops and handle shrinks. That is exactly what is happening now. The big whales are extracting a lot of money from the pools. I've always said too many winners aren't good for tracks because they take money out of circulation. But tracks have gone and created winners that are doing that very thing, taking a lot of money out of circulation.
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:02 PM   #74
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It really doesn't matter that much if bettors think they care. If they are going through the money too fast, churn stops and handle shrinks. That is exactly what is happening now. The big whales are extracting a lot of money from the pools. I've always said too many winners aren't good for tracks because they take money out of circulation. But tracks have gone and created winners that are doing that very thing, taking a lot of money out of circulation.
Churn only matters for bettors with a fixed bsnkroll who bet a lot.
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:18 PM   #75
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Churn only matters for bettors with a fixed bsnkroll who bet a lot.
I think there are a whole bunch of those people out there.
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