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Old 02-12-2018, 10:58 AM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Effects of sports betting on horse racing to be examined

https://www.gamingtoday.com/article/...to_be_examined

Excerpt:

The continuing examination of the possible effects of national sports wagering, should it become legal in the U.S., continues March 13-17 in New Orleans at the Horsemen's Benevolent & Protective Association (HBPA) convention.

Sports betting and its possible ramifications on horse racing will come under scrutiny in a discussion panel featuring William Hill U.S. CEO Joe Asher.
===========================================

Only way it can benefit racing IMO is to only allow it at tracks, OTB's, and Casinos (Brick and Mortar) for first few years. The States that do that will help horse racing. The ones that don't will hurt horse racing.

Last edited by Andy Asaro; 02-12-2018 at 11:04 AM.
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Old 02-12-2018, 01:57 PM   #2
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Only way it can benefit racing IMO is to only allow it at tracks, OTB's, and Casinos (Brick and Mortar) for first few years. The States that do that will help horse racing. The ones that don't will hurt horse racing.
Agreed. Although even in those cases, how many existing horse players at the track will bail on the game to go wager on sports instead?

Sure, facilities will get a huge influx of new people showing up to place sports wagers, and maybe a few of them will throw some dollars at horse racing. But would that be offset by the number of existing players who take their money out of the pools to go put it on football or basketball instead?

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I just don't see how racing (at least in it's current form) survives the nationwide legalization of sports betting. Whether wagering is allowed online from day one, or not until year three, sooner or later it will happen. Nothing I've seen from inside the industry shows that anyone is prepared for that. Nor do I have any faith that the industry would use a 2-3 year buffer to come up with a plan.
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Old 02-12-2018, 02:35 PM   #3
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Why look at the possible effects on horse racing? The effect is rather obvious, more competition for the wagering dollar. Giving a track a cut of the revenue without any incentive to change has proven unhealthy for the sport already. If a track wants a cut, say ok if the field size is 9 or more starters. Set the take out at the same rate as sports betting. Make accurate information available to the public. Make your drug enforcement have some teeth. In other words, make your product competitive. Horse racing has already proven that without incentive, they will continue in the same direction as they were heading before casino money came along, downward.
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Old 02-12-2018, 02:41 PM   #4
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I am wanting to know how it will effect states that don't have horse wagering will it be now allowed under "sport"
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Old 02-12-2018, 03:02 PM   #5
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I have repeatedly stated this game is way overpriced for the masses. That being said if the masses want to bet sports, isn't the door already open? Offshore sports betting has been here for over 20 years. Bookies have always have been here. I highly doubt anyone who wants to bet games is not betting games. So the way I look at it is that if sports betting were to become legal, it introduces gambling to a large chunk of society that has mostly abstained from it. Sure they may play in a weekly card game or go to Vegas a couple times a year......but for the most part they are living their life without gambling.

So in my mind the problem is not that sports betting could be here to stay and that horseplayers are going to leave the game in droves to suddenly bet sports. To me the problem is that when the horse player bets sports they realize that there $500 betting sports provides a lot more entertainment. They bet 10 games a week for $55/$50 (whether they will be able to get a bet down at 11/10 remains to be seen) and on a typical week they go 5-5 an lose a whopping $25. In contrast if they are betting $500 a week on racing, they are losing 100 to $150 a week(Multiply that by 52 weeks and you have something to talk about). So if sports betting is offerred at 11/10 then it will not take very long for the masses to figure out that there is a better gamble out there. On the other hand if the greed of the leagues causes sports betting to be offerred at 12/10 or even 13/10 which is very possible (I haven't been following it but I know these discussions are out there ) then the sports bettor is losing $50 or $75 a week and it is a little less obvious that sports betting is the better gamble.

Whatever the case racing has to figure out if they want to become a player in the gambling industy (by eliminating rebates and bringing takeout to 8/10/12 %). If they do sports betting will transform a lot more of the population into gambling which could in turn will transform more people into horse racing. Initially a good % of the public isn't going to know they are getting gouged at racetracks, so sports betting may actually help racing for a time, but unless racing wants to compete in the gambling market by offerring a competitive betting marketplace, I think we will have much of what we have today until sports betting eventually starts siphoning off players at a pretty fast rate.............At this point it can get pretty ugly.

Any chance racing sees the light? Sadly I think not. If they don't they can look back to this moment in time and realize this was the point in time they really needed to do something right and they failed to act and it cost them everything. Of course they can always hope that sports betting is not leagalized and everything will be just peachy keen.
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Old 02-12-2018, 04:02 PM   #6
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Agreed. Although even in those cases, how many existing horse players at the track will bail on the game to go wager on sports instead?

Sure, facilities will get a huge influx of new people showing up to place sports wagers, and maybe a few of them will throw some dollars at horse racing. But would that be offset by the number of existing players who take their money out of the pools to go put it on football or basketball instead?

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I just don't see how racing (at least in it's current form) survives the nationwide legalization of sports betting. Whether wagering is allowed online from day one, or not until year three, sooner or later it will happen. Nothing I've seen from inside the industry shows that anyone is prepared for that. Nor do I have any faith that the industry would use a 2-3 year buffer to come up with a plan.
Only way to go if they have brick and mortar wagering only is to lower takeout on the high churn wagers. Exactas have to be down to 16% and must pay to the penny on breakage. BTW sports bettors do understand parlays and round robins. They would have 2 or 3 years to convert a lot of them if the price is right IMO
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Old 02-12-2018, 04:31 PM   #7
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What's great about 16% on Exactas? Nothing really.

It's still way OVERPRICED.

Parimutuel wagering was invented with an ideal TAKEOUT OF 10%. No one ever remembers this (or is aware), including so-called EXPERTS.

Poindexter is the only one right so far in this thread.
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Old 02-12-2018, 04:33 PM   #8
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What's great about 16% on Exactas? Nothing really.

It's still way OVERPRICED.

Parimutuel wagering was invented with an ideal TAKEOUT OF 10%. No one ever remembers this (or is aware), including so-called EXPERTS.

Poindexter is the only one right so far in this thread.
It would be the lowest of any major jurisdiction by far. NYRA is 18.5%.
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Old 02-12-2018, 04:33 PM   #9
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Parimutuel wagering was invented with an ideal TAKEOUT OF 10%.
Source?
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Old 02-12-2018, 05:54 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
So in my mind the problem is not that sports betting could be here to stay and that horseplayers are going to leave the game in droves to suddenly bet sports. To me the problem is that when the horse player bets sports they realize that there $500 betting sports provides a lot more entertainment.
There is an argument that I have heard made that for a casual player, a bet on a game is the absolute best form of gambling.

The basic argument is that when you bet on a game, it gives you hours of action on one bet. A horse race gives you a couple of minutes of action, a poker hand about a minute of action, and a roulette wheel or slot machine gives you a few seconds of it. Which then requires the player to put additional money into the game to keep the action going, which means they lose their money faster.

Honestly, I think legal sports betting is a threat to a LOT of other forms of gambling with respect to the casual bettor's dollar.
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:23 PM   #11
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10%

PA, you do the research. I came across it years ago. It started in France, thus the name. The originator/inventor pegged the takeout at 10% as being equitable for BOTH sides. Then one side got greedy as time went on.

Good research project for a Math major looking for a PhD. I'm too old.
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AA, just because it's lower doesn't make it right. It's too high everywhere.
16% is a poor bargaining position to take.
Start with our side demanding 10% and work from there.
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:27 PM   #12
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There is an argument that I have heard made that for a casual player, a bet on a game is the absolute best form of gambling.

The basic argument is that when you bet on a game, it gives you hours of action on one bet. A horse race gives you a couple of minutes of action, a poker hand about a minute of action, and a roulette wheel or slot machine gives you a few seconds of it. Which then requires the player to put additional money into the game to keep the action going, which means they lose their money faster.

Honestly, I think legal sports betting is a threat to a LOT of other forms of gambling with respect to the casual bettor's dollar.
As with horse racing where no one plays every race other forms of gambling allow you to sit out a few hands or rolls of the dice.
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:30 PM   #13
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PA, you do the research. I came across it years ago. It started in France, thus the name. The originator/inventor pegged the takeout at 10% as being equitable for BOTH sides. Then one side got greedy as time went on.

Good research project for a Math major looking for a PhD. I'm too old.
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AA, just because it's lower doesn't make it right. It's too high everywhere.
16% is a poor bargaining position to take.
Start with our side demanding 10% and work from there.
Our side????
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:34 PM   #14
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Source?
is there a source that says 25% is ideal?
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:41 PM   #15
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is there a source that says 25% is ideal?
The Track Executive Manifesto?
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