Computer longshot test

[headhawg]

GP and Tam

GP  3/17/18
Race 1  #4 OUR BOSS; #5 MONDAY PIRATE
Race 2  #3 LUCILLE BULL; #6 SUPER DUPER GIRL
Race 4  #2 DONEGAL HALL
Race 5  #4 PRUE; #6 STARSHIP ROCKY
Race 6  #3 TINCA'S BIRD; #7 SOMEWHATOPTIMISTIC; #8 TWO DIAMONDS; #10 ADIOS MIA
Race 7  #1 DATTTS ARTIES BOY; #3 DOOLITTLE RAIDERS;  #4 ATIZAPANl  #8 HAIL TO VICTORYl #9 LOVE MY COTTON
Race 9  #3 FALLEN LEAFl #5 DANCING GIA; #6 BILL'S LEGACY
Race 10  #4 THE GREEN MO'STER
Race 13  #5 SON OF GREATNESS; #9 GODS GREATNESS; #10 MILO DIAMOND

TAM 3/17/18
Race 1  #1 COLLATERAL BEAUTY
Race 2  #7 HOLA PRINCESS
Race 3  #4 CHARMING VERSE
Race 4  #4 SEMINOLE CHARLIE; #6 BOLD AS A LION; #8 BERNINI            
Race 5  #1 CRITICAL HUMOR; #4 PATIENT DIGNA ; #6 ROCKAROUNDTHEDOCK; #10 LUCKYSTRIKEDELCOCO     
Race 6  #2 PERFETTO; #5 DOCTOR LEE; #6 POLLOCK           
Race 7  #3 HONEST FIGHT; #4 SMOLTZ            
Race 8  #3 NELO MARGARITA; #4 I AM PRINCESS; #7 IWANNATALKABOUTME     
Race 9  #5 QUICKLUCKYCOCO     
Race 10  #6 WOMAN FLYER; #10 I'M DANCING AGAIN

Basic rules:

• Play @ 4-1 when field size <=6; 5-1 when >6 horse field
• No turf races
• If there's a dominant favorite that doesn't look vulnerable (your call), then no play.
• No play if there are more than 3 longshot picks in a race. (I didn't filter those races out in case there were scratches.)
• Consider using underneath in exotics.
• Use your own elimination rules (perhaps someone else's longshot picks?) with multiple picks in a race.

I am looking to tweak this either with more elimination rules or adding more positive factors. Picks seem to work better when 2 or 3 horses are listed. Posting these for entertainment purposes only.

Good luck all.

[headhawg]

AQU and TP

AQU 03/17/18
Race 2  #6 INFIELD IS IN     
Race 4  #1 KENYAN        
Race 4  #6 BUNYAAN           
Race 9  #9 BIG AUK; #10 CLONEDSIMMARD      

TP  03/17/18
Race 1  #8 DAY IN THE SUN     
Race 3  #12 MAYO'S BID         
Race 4  #1 ONE LOVELY STORM      
Race 5  #6 TRUE SIMPLICITY      
Race 6  #5 SUSIE BEE; #8 SKY FLOWER         
Race 7  #4 GIANT HONOR; #10 TRUTH BE TOLLED      
Race 8  #10 FAST AND ACCURATE     
Race 9  #4 CHILD'S PLAY       
Race 10  #5 MAGICALMEISTER; #6 MUGARITZ           
Race 11  #1 VICTOR JARA; #7 DARK ARDEN

[headhawg]

FG and OP

FG  3/17/18
Race 1  #2 N. D. FREE             
Race 4  #1 BELLA MOON         
Race 5  #10 ARABELLA BELLA; #11 TAYLOR'S PRINCESS      
Race 6  #2 PEARL OF THE NILE      
Race 7  #2 HUMOR; #3 NICE NOT NICE      
Race 8  #2 TARPYS ZAPPER
Race 9  #3 BELIEVEINSOMETHING      
Race 10  #3 WABASH CANNONBALL

OP  3/17/18      
Race 3  #2 CONSTANTINO; #7 BLACK BEAR; #10 ARMANDO'S STAR      
Race 4  #9 THE MONEY DANCE      
Race 5  #1 LONG STATION; #9 AQUAMARINE         
Race 6  #6 GRAY SKY; #8 ROMA ROAD**; #9 EARLY BID; #10 HEAVY ROLLER 
Race 7  #3 GRADE ONE          
Race 8  #1 BLUERIDGE TRAVELER

**my preferred play