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Old 05-06-2018, 10:21 AM   #16
TheOracle
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
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There are 16 horses today with Morning Lines less than 3-1 there could be a spike today of 5 or more since there are 12 races and I would suspect that most if not all of the 5 would be on the Dirt from today's group:

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-05-2018    1st race    4    Summer Punch (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R Diodoro    1/1#    Dirt
2    05-05-2018    1st race    5    Jump for Joy (PA)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    C Baker    8/5#    Dirt
3    05-05-2018    2nd race    5    Grand Valour (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Seven Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf
4    05-05-2018    3rd race    1    Mister Hayes (FL)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M Nevin    2/1#    Dirt
5    05-05-2018    4th race    7    Guerriere (IRE)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    5/2#    Turf
6    05-05-2018    4th race    8    Misericordia (GB)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    A E Goldberg    2/1#    Turf
7    05-05-2018    5th race    1    Fast Getaway (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    L Rice    5/2#    Dirt
8    05-05-2018    6th race    3    Holy Helena (ON)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    J A Jerkens    7/5#    Turf
9    05-05-2018    6th race    6    Santa Monica (GB)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    C C Brown    5/2#    Turf
10    05-05-2018    7th race    3    Big Guy Ian (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    8/5#    Dirt
11    05-05-2018    9th race    3    Patternrecognition (FL)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    8/5#    Dirt
12    05-05-2018    9th race    6    Wonderful Light (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
13    05-05-2018    10th race    8    Silverwave (FR)    Stakes    One And One Eighth Miles    C C Brown    2/1#    Turf
14    05-05-2018    11th race    2    Cloud Computing (KY)    Stakes    One Mile    C C Brown    1/1#    Dirt
15    05-05-2018    11th race    5    Tommy Macho (KY)    Stakes    One Mile    T A Pletcher    5/2#    Dirt
16    05-05-2018    12th race    11    Pence (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Seven Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf
17    05-05-2018    12th race    13    Playwright (NY) (MTO)    Maiden Claiming    Seven Furlongs    D Gargan    9/5#    Turf
Let's see what happens!!!

Yesterday's Morning Lines less than 3-1 laid a bunch of eggs going 3 for 16.

I was expecting 5 wins and an upward spike but instead got a flat slope __



The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is 0 and stays the same as yesterday as once again there were only 3 winners from this group



Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin
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Old 05-06-2018, 10:33 AM   #17
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From what I’ve seen if there is a spike from a 3 win day it usually goes to +1 so maybe 4 wins today from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

However, even that’s a stretch as there are 5 Turf races today at Belmont

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	Surface
1	05-06-2018	1st race	2	Lipstickonmycollar (KY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	C J Englehart	2/1#	Dirt
2	05-06-2018	2nd race	6	English Dancer (KY)	Claiming	One And One Sixteenth Miles	W I Mott	5/2#	Turf
3	05-06-2018	3rd race	5	Anazara (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	W I Mott	8/5#	Dirt
4	05-06-2018	3rd race	6	Saturdays Vapor (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	D A Cannizzo	2/1#	Dirt
5	05-06-2018	4th race	2	Bad Student (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	R Diodoro	5/2#	Dirt
6	05-06-2018	4th race	5	Abounding Legacy (FL)	Claiming	One Mile	R E Nicks	2/1#	Dirt
7	05-06-2018	5th race	1	Course Correction (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	One And One Fourth Miles	C C Brown	5/2#	Turf
8	05-06-2018	6th race	1	Breaking the Rules (KY)	Allowance	Six Furlongs	C R McGaughey III	8/5#	Dirt
9	05-06-2018	6th race	3	Pop the Hood (NY)	Allowance	Six Furlongs	R A Ubillo	2/1#	Dirt
10	05-06-2018	7th race	7	Shalako (KY)	Claiming	One And One Sixteenth Miles	M Nevin	5/2#	Turf
11	05-06-2018	8th race	1	Faypien (FL)	Stakes	One Mile	B Baffert	5/2#	Dirt
12	05-06-2018	8th race	6	Unchained Melody (KY)	Stakes	One Mile	B A Lynch	9/5#	Dirt
13	05-06-2018	9th race	1	Preservationist (KY) (MTO)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One And One Sixteenth Miles	J A Jerkens	6/5#	Turf
14	05-06-2018	10th race	15	Andretta (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	H J Bond	8/5#	Turf
Let’s see what happens!!!
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Old 05-11-2018, 11:03 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
From what I’ve seen if there is a spike from a 3 win day it usually goes to +1 so maybe 4 wins today from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

However, even that’s a stretch as there are 5 Turf races today at Belmont

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-06-2018    1st race    2    Lipstickonmycollar (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    C J Englehart    2/1#    Dirt
2    05-06-2018    2nd race    6    English Dancer (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    W I Mott    5/2#    Turf
3    05-06-2018    3rd race    5    Anazara (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    W I Mott    8/5#    Dirt
4    05-06-2018    3rd race    6    Saturdays Vapor (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    D A Cannizzo    2/1#    Dirt
5    05-06-2018    4th race    2    Bad Student (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R Diodoro    5/2#    Dirt
6    05-06-2018    4th race    5    Abounding Legacy (FL)    Claiming    One Mile    R E Nicks    2/1#    Dirt
7    05-06-2018    5th race    1    Course Correction (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Fourth Miles    C C Brown    5/2#    Turf
8    05-06-2018    6th race    1    Breaking the Rules (KY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    C R McGaughey III    8/5#    Dirt
9    05-06-2018    6th race    3    Pop the Hood (NY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    R A Ubillo    2/1#    Dirt
10    05-06-2018    7th race    7    Shalako (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M Nevin    5/2#    Turf
11    05-06-2018    8th race    1    Faypien (FL)    Stakes    One Mile    B Baffert    5/2#    Dirt
12    05-06-2018    8th race    6    Unchained Melody (KY)    Stakes    One Mile    B A Lynch    9/5#    Dirt
13    05-06-2018    9th race    1    Preservationist (KY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J A Jerkens    6/5#    Turf
14    05-06-2018    10th race    15    Andretta (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    H J Bond    8/5#    Turf
Let’s see what happens!!!

I was expecting a spike last Sunday of 4 wins but there were only 3 wins from this group so once again, we got a flat slope __



Sunday's MLF's only had 3 wins from their group




Other MLF's once again beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was 0 and stayed the same as Saturday
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Old 05-11-2018, 11:23 AM   #19
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I was sure that by Wednesday there would have been a spike in wins from the MLF's but that did not happen as there were only 2 winners from among the group and so we got a downward slope and a slight upside down v



Yesterday's MLF's only had 2 wins from their group



Other MLF's shutout 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 0 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is -1

I was hoping for a big spike today but that is not likely to happen as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling in Turf races since opening day

They are involved with 6 today

Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1:

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-11-2018    1st race    3    Zechariah (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    H G Motion    5/2#    Turf
2    05-11-2018    1st race    6    Blurred Line (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    D Gargan    1/1#    Turf
3    05-11-2018    1st race    2    Surface Strike (NY) (MTO)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    W I Mott    6/5#    Turf
4    05-11-2018    2nd race    4    Princess Maeve (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    2/1#    Dirt
5    05-11-2018    2nd race    5    Pumpernickel Basil (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
6    05-11-2018    3rd race    2    Believe Indeed (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    D S Ryan    8/5#    Turf
7    05-11-2018    3rd race    3    Patriotic Endeavor (KY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
8    05-11-2018    4th race    6    Devamani (FR)    Allowance    One And One Fourth Miles    C Clement    9/5#    Turf
9    05-11-2018    4th race    5    Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO)    Allowance    One And One Fourth Miles    J P Terranova II    6/5#    Turf
10    05-11-2018    5th race    1    No Need to Appeal (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C C Brown    2/1#    Dirt
11    05-11-2018    5th race    2    Short Kakes (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    D A Cannizzo    5/2#    Dirt
12    05-11-2018    6th race    7    Special Trip (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J R Abreu    5/2#    Turf
13    05-11-2018    8th race    2    Inspector Lynley (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    C R McGaughey III    9/5#    Turf
14    05-11-2018    8th race    5    Hoffenheim (KY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    D Jacobson    7/5#    Turf
15    05-11-2018    9th race    5    Tres Charmant (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
16    05-11-2018    9th race    11    Ribbonite (NY) (MTO)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    D Gargan    2/1#    Turf
Let's see how they do today!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-11-2018 at 11:26 AM.
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Old 05-11-2018, 11:28 PM   #20
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This may be a really dumb question, and explained in prior posts, any particular reason why you are charting this?
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Old 05-12-2018, 08:48 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
This may be a really dumb question, and explained in prior posts, any particular reason why you are charting this?
Hey GMB

I just wanted see if there are times when the Morning Line Favorites, in particular those less than 3-1, win more so than at other times

At Aqueduct there were many instances when the Morning Line Favorites as a group did well, say won 5 or 6 races in one day, then they would come back the next day and lay an egg with 2 or 3 wins for the day

So I started charting wins at Aqueduct the spikes were pretty noticeable but so far the same can’t be said about Belmont

Let’s keep an eye on them!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-12-2018 at 08:57 AM.
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Old 05-12-2018, 09:55 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
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I was hoping for a big spike today but that is not likely to happen as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling in Turf races since opening day

They are involved with 6 today

Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1:

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-11-2018    1st race    3    Zechariah (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    H G Motion    5/2#    Turf
2    05-11-2018    1st race    6    Blurred Line (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    D Gargan    1/1#    Turf
3    05-11-2018    1st race    2    Surface Strike (NY) (MTO)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    W I Mott    6/5#    Turf
4    05-11-2018    2nd race    4    Princess Maeve (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    2/1#    Dirt
5    05-11-2018    2nd race    5    Pumpernickel Basil (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
6    05-11-2018    3rd race    2    Believe Indeed (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    D S Ryan    8/5#    Turf
7    05-11-2018    3rd race    3    Patriotic Endeavor (KY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
8    05-11-2018    4th race    6    Devamani (FR)    Allowance    One And One Fourth Miles    C Clement    9/5#    Turf
9    05-11-2018    4th race    5    Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO)    Allowance    One And One Fourth Miles    J P Terranova II    6/5#    Turf
10    05-11-2018    5th race    1    No Need to Appeal (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C C Brown    2/1#    Dirt
11    05-11-2018    5th race    2    Short Kakes (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    D A Cannizzo    5/2#    Dirt
12    05-11-2018    6th race    7    Special Trip (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J R Abreu    5/2#    Turf
13    05-11-2018    8th race    2    Inspector Lynley (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    C R McGaughey III    9/5#    Turf
14    05-11-2018    8th race    5    Hoffenheim (KY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    D Jacobson    7/5#    Turf
15    05-11-2018    9th race    5    Tres Charmant (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
16    05-11-2018    9th race    11    Ribbonite (NY) (MTO)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    D Gargan    2/1#    Turf
Let's see how they do today!!!

There was a slight spike yesterday as there were 3 winners from this group



With 6 Turf races yesterday the 3 win total is about what was expected



Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is +1

I am expecting this group to do better maybe 5 wins today as they are involved in only 4 Turf races

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-12-2018    1st race    2    A True Giant (NY)    Allowance    Seven Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    6/5#    Dirt
2    05-12-2018    3rd race    1    Sounds Delicious (KY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
3    05-12-2018    3rd race    3    Chalon (KY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    A Delacour    5/2#    Dirt
4    05-12-2018    3rd race    6    Holiday Disguise (NY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    L Rice    9/5#    Dirt
5    05-12-2018    5th race    5    Voodoo Song (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Seven Furlongs    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
6    05-12-2018    5th race    7    American Guru (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Seven Furlongs    J A Jerkens    1/1#    Turf
7    05-12-2018    5th race    1    Forge (KY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Seven Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    4/5#    Turf
8    05-12-2018    6th race    2    Patch (KY)    Allowance    One And One Sixteenth Miles    T A Pletcher    9/5#    Dirt
9    05-12-2018    7th race    2    Cloontia (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J A Jerkens    5/2#    Turf
10    05-12-2018    7th race    13    Gucci Factor (NY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C Clement    2/1#    Turf
11    05-12-2018    8th race    1    Skylers Scramjet (KY)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    7/5#    Dirt
12    05-12-2018    8th race    2    Westwood (KY)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
13    05-12-2018    9th race    2    Inflexibility (ON)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    8/5#    Turf
14    05-12-2018    9th race    6    A Raving Beauty (GER)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    2/1#    Turf
15    05-12-2018    10th race    1    Core Beliefs (KY)    Stakes    One And One Eighth Miles    P Eurton    2/1#    Dirt
16    05-12-2018    11th race    7    Hi Happy (ARG)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    T A Pletcher    5/2#    Turf
Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-12-2018 at 10:04 AM.
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Old 05-12-2018, 10:17 AM   #23
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I believe as a point of information maybe a the last month of aqueduct, and now Belmont, they changed morning line makers. The guy making the morning line is a very astute handicapper. Not sure the numbers have bore that out as he is only trying to predict what the public will do but I thought it worth mentioning.
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Old 05-12-2018, 10:28 AM   #24
TheOracle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
I believe as a point of information maybe a the last month of aqueduct, and now Belmont, they changed morning line makers. The guy making the morning line is a very astute handicapper. Not sure the numbers have bore that out as he is only trying to predict what the public will do but I thought it worth mentioning.
Hey GMB

Yeah I hear you and I know it’s just a predictor for the public but I’m just interested to see what they actually go on to do and how many wins they happen to get with the tag of Morning Line Favorite (MLF) less than 3-1

It would actually be great if I could track the actual final odds but they change the odds while the race is running which has been posted in this forum many times so I use the Morning Lines

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-12-2018 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 05-13-2018, 11:24 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
There was a slight spike yesterday as there were 3 winners from this group
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I am expecting this group to do better maybe 5 wins today as they are involved in only 4 Turf races

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-12-2018    1st race    2    A True Giant (NY)    Allowance    Seven Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    6/5#    Dirt
2    05-12-2018    3rd race    1    Sounds Delicious (KY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
3    05-12-2018    3rd race    3    Chalon (KY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    A Delacour    5/2#    Dirt
4    05-12-2018    3rd race    6    Holiday Disguise (NY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    L Rice    9/5#    Dirt
5    05-12-2018    5th race    5    Voodoo Song (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Seven Furlongs    L Rice    5/2#    Turf
6    05-12-2018    5th race    7    American Guru (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Seven Furlongs    J A Jerkens    1/1#    Turf
7    05-12-2018    5th race    1    Forge (KY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Seven Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    4/5#    Turf
8    05-12-2018    6th race    2    Patch (KY)    Allowance    One And One Sixteenth Miles    T A Pletcher    9/5#    Dirt
9    05-12-2018    7th race    2    Cloontia (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J A Jerkens    5/2#    Turf
10    05-12-2018    7th race    13    Gucci Factor (NY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C Clement    2/1#    Turf
11    05-12-2018    8th race    1    Skylers Scramjet (KY)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    7/5#    Dirt
12    05-12-2018    8th race    2    Westwood (KY)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
13    05-12-2018    9th race    2    Inflexibility (ON)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    8/5#    Turf
14    05-12-2018    9th race    6    A Raving Beauty (GER)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    2/1#    Turf
15    05-12-2018    10th race    1    Core Beliefs (KY)    Stakes    One And One Eighth Miles    P Eurton    2/1#    Dirt
16    05-12-2018    11th race    7    Hi Happy (ARG)    Stakes    One And Three Eighth Miles    T A Pletcher    5/2#    Turf
Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!

There was a slight spike yesterday as I expected 5 wins from the group but they could only sniff out 4 wins yesterday at Belmont



However, you did get a 28% return on your money playing them to win yesterday.



A profit is very rare from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 but the upset in th 5th race from the Morning Line 5-2 winner #5 Voodoo Song helped to boost prices!!!

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 3 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +1

I am expecting this group to get close to 5 wins today as they are involved in only 1 Turf race today at Belmont

There are 3 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 3rd, 5th and 10th races!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-13-2018    1st race    3    Data Driven (KY)    Starter Allowance     Six And One Half Furlongs    D Jacobson    8/5#    Dirt
2    05-13-2018    1st race    6    The Caretaker (NY)    Starter Allowance     Six And One Half Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    5/2#    Dirt
3    05-13-2018    2nd race    1    Barefoot Angel (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C Baker    2/1#    Dirt
4    05-13-2018    2nd race    2    Irish Marauder (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    G Weaver    5/2#    Dirt
5    05-13-2018    3rd race    4    Engage (KY)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    1/1#    Dirt
6    05-13-2018    4th race    2    Panic Attack (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    G Sciacca    5/2#    Dirt
7    05-13-2018    4th race    3    Santo Antonio (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    R R Rodriguez    4/5#    Dirt
8    05-13-2018    5th race    5    First Tomoe (KY)    Claiming    Seven Furlongs    S M Asmussen    1/1#    Dirt
9    05-13-2018    6th race    4    Rugbyman (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    H G Motion    5/2#    Dirt
10    05-13-2018    7th race    2    Best Performance (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C Clement    5/2#    Turf
11    05-13-2018    10th race    6    Battle of Saratoga (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    H G Motion    1/2#    Dirt
Let's see how they do today!!!
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Old 05-13-2018, 12:02 PM   #26
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I suspect the surface will be wet today at Belmont as the rain continues to drench the Tri-State area



The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 14 of their last 18 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!


3rd race
#4 Engage

5th race
#5 First Tomoe

10th race
#6 Battle of Saratoga

Let's see how these do today they won't pay much of a price but better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!
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Old 05-14-2018, 05:02 PM   #27
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I suspect the surface will be wet today at Belmont as the rain continues to drench the Tri-State area



The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 14 of their last 18 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!


3rd race
#4 Engage

5th race
#5 First Tomoe

10th race
#6 Battle of Saratoga

Let's see how these do today they won't pay much of a price but better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!
Well the even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) went 1 for 2 yesterday as #5 First Tomoe disappointed and finished 3rd

However, #4 Engage got the win paying $3.5 for the win!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

As I always say it's much better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!
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Old 05-14-2018, 05:18 PM   #28
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I am expecting this group to get close to 5 wins today as they are involved in only 1 Turf race today at Belmont

There are 3 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 3rd, 5th and 10th races!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-13-2018    1st race    3    Data Driven (KY)    Starter Allowance     Six And One Half Furlongs    D Jacobson    8/5#    Dirt
2    05-13-2018    1st race    6    The Caretaker (NY)    Starter Allowance     Six And One Half Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    5/2#    Dirt
3    05-13-2018    2nd race    1    Barefoot Angel (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C Baker    2/1#    Dirt
4    05-13-2018    2nd race    2    Irish Marauder (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    G Weaver    5/2#    Dirt
5    05-13-2018    3rd race    4    Engage (KY)    Stakes    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    1/1#    Dirt
6    05-13-2018    4th race    2    Panic Attack (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    G Sciacca    5/2#    Dirt
7    05-13-2018    4th race    3    Santo Antonio (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    R R Rodriguez    4/5#    Dirt
8    05-13-2018    5th race    5    First Tomoe (KY)    Claiming    Seven Furlongs    S M Asmussen    1/1#    Dirt
9    05-13-2018    6th race    4    Rugbyman (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    H G Motion    5/2#    Dirt
10    05-13-2018    7th race    2    Best Performance (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C Clement    5/2#    Turf
11    05-13-2018    10th race    6    Battle of Saratoga (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    H G Motion    1/2#    Dirt
Let's see how they do today!!!
There was a slight drop yesterday as I expected 5 wins from the group but could only get 3 wins yesterday at Belmont



I don't think 5 or 6 wins will come from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 any time soon. The wins will hover around 3 or 4 per day from this group but let's keep an eye on them!!!

You lost $1 if you played all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 to win yesterday due in part to the $18.10 payout across the board from #3 Data Driven per $2 win place and show wager



One more win from the MLFs less than 3-1 would have put win returns on the plus side for the day

How I of all people could miss a horse called Data Driven I will never know!!!

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1

I'm hoping for a spike next week of at least +1 to the index!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-14-2018 at 05:26 PM.
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Old 05-17-2018, 09:39 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
.
.
.

I don't think 5 or 6 wins will come from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 any time soon. The wins will hover around 3 or 4 per day from this group but let's keep an eye on them!!!

You lost $1 if you played all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 to win yesterday due in part to the $18.10 payout across the board from #3 Data Driven per $2 win place and show wager



One more win from the MLFs less than 3-1 would have put win returns on the plus side for the day

How I of all people could miss a horse called Data Driven I will never know!!!

Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin

The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1

I'm hoping for a spike next week of at least +1 to the index!!!

There was a spike yesterday from the Morning Lines less than 3-1 they had 5 winners on the wet stuff at Belmont!!!



Interesting to note that 4 of the 5 winners came after the 5th race yesterday, including 2 back to back wins from the group to complete the late daily double along with exactas in the 5th race and 9th races!!!



Prior to the 4th race yesterday the Morning Lines less than 3-1 went 4 for their last 14 and then went on to win 4 of their last 7 races

The 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) crushed other MLF's by a 5 to 0 margin including 3 straight wins to complete the late pick 3 at Belmont!!!



The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +2 since yesterday!!!
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Old 05-17-2018, 09:48 AM   #30
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I suspect that the good times will not last today for the Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont

I am thinking there will be at most 3 winners from this group today I suspect a downward slope \ today and possibly a spike tomorrow!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface
1    05-17-2018    1st race    3    Stop Thinking (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    D Gargan    7/5#    Dirt
2    05-17-2018    1st race    6    Carlisle Belle (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G Sciacca    2/1#    Dirt
3    05-17-2018    2nd race    3    Outshine (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Five Furlongs    T A Pletcher    4/5#    Dirt
4    05-17-2018    3rd race    3    Classy Class (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
5    05-17-2018    3rd race    4    Favorable Outcome (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C C Brown    8/5#    Dirt
6    05-17-2018    3rd race    5    Hoffenheim (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    D Jacobson    5/2#    Dirt
7    05-17-2018    4th race    1    High Moon (NY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M J Maker    8/5#    Turf
8    05-17-2018    4th race    3    With Exultation (NY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    L Rice    7/5#    Turf
9    05-17-2018    4th race    10    Mobridge (NY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    W I Mott    5/2#    Turf
10    05-17-2018    4th race    7    Beckers Galaxy (NY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    R R Rodriguez    2/1#    Turf
11    05-17-2018    4th race    9    Pegasus Red (NY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    A C Avila    5/2#    Turf
12    05-17-2018    5th race    1    Morning Buzz (FL)    Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    E R Barker    6/5#    Dirt
13    05-17-2018    5th race    3    Full Salute (KY)    Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    D Gargan    5/2#    Dirt
14    05-17-2018    6th race    2    Deeply Undervalued (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    4/5#    Turf
15    05-17-2018    7th race    4    Pas de Deuce (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    J Morrison    2/1#    Dirt
16    05-17-2018    8th race    4    Awsum Roar (NY)    Starter Allowance     Six Furlongs    J Servis    2/1#    Turf
Let's see how the MLF's do today at Belmont!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 05-17-2018 at 09:49 AM.
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