i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by papillon

Ortiz said that he ran along with Justify because the pace was not very fast. His words not mine. He said he tried to take back but the pace was too slow. It didn't sound like a duel from his perspective.

The pace was 140 Timeform, that is fast at that distance. It felt controlled probably to him after that Derby.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Oxbow 2.0. Same sire, as well as same broodmare sire.

OXBOW b. C, 2010 {26} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD = 0.67
BRAVAZO dkb/br. C, 2015{A10} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD= 0.67

Sort of surprised more people didn't use him knowing that.

So if he runs 2nd in the BEL it will be freaky.

I’m also suprised more people didn’t bet him simply based on the derby that he ran considering most preakness winners come from that race. He ran a phenomenal derby. And he’s double bred for wet. I don’t know what happened because of the fog but for some reason he lost ground. I know I sound like a broken record but I love this horse. I love Lukas.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period. He had to win the maiden, he had to win the Alw, he could maybe have gotten there with a second at SA, then win the Derby, and now the Preakness

No margin for error and no breathers.

I would like to see some comparisons, all horses of every age, with a similar set of graded races (3 grade 1's) and two other races in 90 days. Now a 5th at 110 days.

Probably have to go back to the early 80's. Unheard of in modern racing from my, albeit, average memory.

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

[Fightingirish51195]

Smarty jones>justify

Even he was defeated in the Belmont. This. Race. Is. The. Equalizer. It his so hard to win after winning the other two

[Tom]

Originally Posted by jahura2

Win or lose, Justify will at least bring attention to our sport even if its only for 3 weeks. Bound to get some new customers out of that.

Yes, I am sure we will!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Smarty jones>justify

I wouldn't be too sure of that...

[GMB@BP]

Just to correct, I said 5th in 110 days, it will be the 6th race.

These trainers who dont run their horses, bunch of crybabies.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

your like a database of horse history

[Bill Cullen]

"i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day?"

I don't think there is a person on earth who could say unequivocally, at this point in time just a few hours after winning the Preakness, there is a "big time bet against [Justify] on Belmont day."

The question is prematurely speculative and would at this chronological juncture only gain traction in a bar where "last call" has been delayed by virtue of a bar owner trying to profit from a lot of guys hitting on just a few fillies.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

your like a database of horse history

Just takes a hint of memory, most of the details come from Equibase.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Just takes a hint of memory, most of the details come from Equibase.

still the ability to remember the horses and find the info, its appreciated!

[Fightingirish51195]

I was always taught your greatest assets as a handicapper is your memory

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I was always taught your greatest assets as a handicapper is your memory

I have had to work pretty good to forget my beats, its an art.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Smarty jones>justify

Even he was defeated in the Belmont. This. Race. Is. The. Equalizer. It his so hard to win after winning the other two

Have you ever seen the size of Smarty Jones? He was a smaller horse, Justify is huge.......Smarty was all heart, Justify is phenomenal specimen. If he's healthy & is galloping nicely, he has a great chance to win the triple crown.

[metro]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

Great work! (love seeing the reference to Farma Way, a great hidden turf sire play)

Would add in American Pharoah who in the span of 84 days won the Rebel, Ark Derby, KY Derby, Preakness and Belmont.