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06-22-2016, 08:25 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 31
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Steven Roman - Dosage Index, Leaving the game
Dosage isn't used by most horseplayers these days, but still hurts when people leave the game.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/farewell.htm
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06-22-2016, 08:52 AM
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#2
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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He has posted here in the past. I learned a lot from his site in my formative years. We didn't always agree on things, but big respect all he has done.
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06-22-2016, 09:38 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Will continue to think about him every Derby season. His input will be missed.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-22-2016, 09:56 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 188
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This is unfortunate. He had a lot of information on his site and I'll be sorry to see it go. I found the Performance Figures useful for the Triple Crown preps and races. He mentions the guy taking over the dosage but doesn't provide an outlet where that info can be found. If anyone becomes aware of that, please post.
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06-22-2016, 10:04 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Webster's definition of ego aggrandizement fits well here.
Mr.Romans should've thanked his readers, his followers, for their association, their support over the years, and removed himself, allowing his material to remain online, as he noted, instead of delivering his own State of Thoroughbred Racing screed. ... We all have one of those.
As the saying goes, "there's no fool like an old fool."
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06-22-2016, 10:19 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 1,724
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I Liked his Goodbye
His last line was a thank-you the rest was a long and I felt interesting reciting of his historical work and the state of racing today and how it got that way.
I enjoyed it, would have liked more on the people he met along the way.bbbb
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06-22-2016, 10:46 AM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,950
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This is a big loss.
I've been reading his material for years, and poof it's all over. The pf's are gone! A low recent pf was a good bet for stakes races. I'm surprised pf rating were not sold off.
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06-22-2016, 12:29 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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He has a very mixed legacy.
He certainly cared about the game, wrote about it, and studied it. And he was very intelligent.
But Dosage was a classic example of the over-statisticalization of the game based on overly small samples. And every year, around TC or BC time, I hear a bunch of BS statistics based on small samples and retroactive fitting (such as that Exaggerator couldn't win the Preakness because Derby runners-up never do). And Dosage was the grand-daddy of such theories-- a completely arbitrary, back-fitted theory that tried to predict something that had a tiny sample size.
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06-22-2016, 12:55 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
He has a very mixed legacy.
He certainly cared about the game, wrote about it, and studied it. And he was very intelligent.
But Dosage was a classic example of the over-statisticalization of the game based on overly small samples. And every year, around TC or BC time, I hear a bunch of BS statistics based on small samples and retroactive fitting (such as that Exaggerator couldn't win the Preakness because Derby runners-up never do). And Dosage was the grand-daddy of such theories-- a completely arbitrary, back-fitted theory that tried to predict something that had a tiny sample size.
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As usual, another good post, dilan.
I was a huge Strike the Gold fan and he was my Derby horse. But Dosage was just about at its peak and all the talk in racing. All I recall was my friends calling me an idiot because of Strike the Gold... that he couldn't win because he was over the 4.0 Dosage number that all Derby winners needed to be below to win.
I still bet him that Ky Derby day and of course, I was happy as hell when he won.
Then, all of a sudden, his sire, Alydar, becomes a chef-de-race, and Strike the Gold qualifies!! The Roman Dosage system still lives!
While I truly and sincerely appreciate Dr. Roman's research, etc., the Dosage Index was always a joke to me.
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06-22-2016, 12:56 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
He has a very mixed legacy.
He certainly cared about the game, wrote about it, and studied it. And he was very intelligent.
But Dosage was a classic example of the over-statisticalization of the game based on overly small samples. And every year, around TC or BC time, I hear a bunch of BS statistics based on small samples and retroactive fitting (such as that Exaggerator couldn't win the Preakness because Derby runners-up never do). And Dosage was the grand-daddy of such theories-- a completely arbitrary, back-fitted theory that tried to predict something that had a tiny sample size.
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I disagree in part with your criticism of Roman’s methodology.
At its inception Roman’s methodology made statistical sense and was predictable when sires were limited to covering 32-36 mares per breeding season and the big farms dominated the TC races by breeding prized stallions to their very good mares.
This is not to say that the breeding today is inferior to yesteryear’s breeding, but it is to say that it is different and doesn’t fit Roman’s Dosage model.
As you very well might know that statistics is not a science but an evolving data driven methodology underlined by many of the other sciences.
Therefore many concepts put forth in racing today for handicapping and breeding is inept because of statistical evolution and modernization or lack of supporting science.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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06-22-2016, 01:03 PM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,950
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
He has a very mixed legacy.
He certainly cared about the game, wrote about it, and studied it. And he was very intelligent.
But Dosage was a classic example of the over-statisticalization of the game based on overly small samples. And every year, around TC or BC time, I hear a bunch of BS statistics based on small samples and retroactive fitting (such as that Exaggerator couldn't win the Preakness because Derby runners-up never do). And Dosage was the grand-daddy of such theories-- a completely arbitrary, back-fitted theory that tried to predict something that had a tiny sample size.
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Yeah well When I played B-Ball I would have been benched if I took a Curry shot. The game changed. I learned a lot from Dr. Roman.
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06-22-2016, 01:46 PM
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#12
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ebcorde
Yeah well When I played B-Ball I would have been benched if I took a Curry shot. The game changed. I learned a lot from Dr. Roman.
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So true, good post. I don't think the younger people realize how accurate it used to be. No small sample, that shit was deadly for a long period of time. EVERTHING changes, people don't always like it but it always does and in sports, adaptation is essential. This game is not played like it was 40 years ago and we used to read his stuff ALL THE TIME.
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06-22-2016, 01:48 PM
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#13
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
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I like how he took his parting shot at Beyer...called him Andrew instead of Andy as well, like he's his dad....jealousy runs deep and long....
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 06-22-2016 at 01:49 PM.
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06-22-2016, 02:34 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
So true, good post. I don't think the younger people realize how accurate it used to be. No small sample, that shit was deadly for a long period of time. EVERTHING changes, people don't always like it but it always does and in sports, adaptation is essential. This game is not played like it was 40 years ago and we used to read his stuff ALL THE TIME.
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If you go to a roulette wheel, black or odd will at some point be "deadly" for a period of time....
It is a clear post hoc fallacy to assume that the reason Dosage no longer "works" is because of changes in breeding. The most obvious explanation is that Dosage was working with a very small sample so that there was no reason to think it was making statistically valid conclusions in the first place.
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06-22-2016, 02:35 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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If you read the entire document, he addressed handicappers using Dosage as an eliminating factor for the Derby. It sounds like it annoyed him because that was not the intended purpose and he felt the misuse by others diminished the value of the work.
Imagine I created a class rating to help estimate the quality of a field relative to PAR and people started using it to arbitrarily bet on horses coming out of strong fields and against horses coming out of weak fields. It would fail. The fact that it failed what it was not designed to do does not mean it wasn't doing what it was intended to do really well.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 06-22-2016 at 02:48 PM.
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