Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-09-2020, 09:37 AM   #1
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 7,150
Authentic retired

This sort of thing makes it so hard for the sport to bring in new fans. Imagine if Patrick Mahomes had retired after winning the Super Bowl last year.

dilanesp is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 10:04 AM   #2
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,586
This is also why there are so few legitimate Grade 1 races for older males now, why it's more worth taking a shot with a top mare against males now, why we often see lower speed figures for older male stakes horses etc.. The best ones are more lightly raced and retired long before they are fully seasoned and at at their physical peak. Then we are left with the also rans and pretenders to take over the division the following year.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 11:27 AM   #3
how cliche
How Cliche
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Northern California
Posts: 492
synic. skeptic.

'we need to retire him before he gets a banned substance test positive'...that's what it feels like. skeptical about every "champion" bb has ever trained.

used to be when two runners overembolden each other the way swiss skydiver and authentic did in the preakness, they're both off form the rest of the year. one barn runs clean and it holds true. the other...doesn't feel authentic.
how cliche is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 12:58 PM   #4
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 7,150
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
This is also why there are so few legitimate Grade 1 races for older males now, why it's more worth taking a shot with a top mare against males now, why we often see lower speed figures for older male stakes horses etc.. The best ones are more lightly raced and retired long before they are fully seasoned and at at their physical peak. Then we are left with the also rans and pretenders to take over the division the following year.
Even Baffert himself showed you how it is done with this. When he got an excellent gelding, Game on Dude, no choice but to keep him in training, and he won all sorts of races and money with him, much of it beating up on those decimated California handicap division fields (although to be fair, the field he beat in his final Santa Anita Handicap win was top notch).
dilanesp is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 01:01 PM   #5
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 44,632
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Even Baffert himself showed you how it is done with this. When he got an excellent gelding, Game on Dude, no choice but to keep him in training, and he won all sorts of races and money with him, much of it beating up on those decimated California handicap division fields (although to be fair, the field he beat in his final Santa Anita Handicap win was top notch).
We saw it with California Chrome and Gun Runner too.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 01:18 PM   #6
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 20,609
Thumbs up Authentic was a monster

it's an insider's game

if I want to breed to an Authentic, I need to either have guaranteed $$ from a partnership selling shares, or be a partner with one of the major players, who has a trainer of record, or is partners with a
Supertrainer.



(i guess that's redundant, and goes for all colts and fillies, but double with certain Stallions)

if I'm doing something with some horseman who is a 2nd generation horseman, or whatever and lives and breathes the trade..., then I go for some Stallion who didn't race for the insiders, and showed perfect fundamentals and a willing heart. Raise a few, then you have a few pets or niche horses, and hopefully get one to the track, and play the game on your level.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-09-2020 at 01:27 PM.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 01:19 PM   #7
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,586
I still don't fully understand the economics of this sport.

I understand how some lucky owners can make more money breeding than racing and how the opposite is often true with mares, which is why they keep running (Monomoy Girl may be back).

However, most owners are losing their shirt.

Yet they keep paying these huge prices for yearlings, which of course supports the prices for stallions, which in turn supports the incentive for retiring them early.

It seems like we have what amounts to being a bunch of economic lunatics buying million dollar lottery tickets hoping for a huge score but losing their shirts on a net basis.

I don't buy lottery tickets, but you can sort of get why an average guy might buy a few dollars worth hoping to change his life.

Why are they vastly overpaying for yearlings and throwing their money away?

The math should tell you what price range is reasonable for yearlings overall based on their potential earnings power and residual value (usually none but sometimes a major score). Then you get into specifics later. If you want to pay a small premium for the fun and are willing to get little or no return on your investment I get that. But some of these guys are incinerating large sums of money on what amounts to being lottery tickets that are damaging the sport.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-09-2020 at 01:23 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 01:55 PM   #8
horsefan2019
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 202
Not surprised. The resume is short but is good enough where Authentic will command a decent fee for breeding. The owners protect their investment and cash out probably making a healthy profit.
horsefan2019 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 02:13 PM   #9
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 3,765
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
...Why are they vastly overpaying for yearlings and throwing their money away?...
I think a lot of buyers spending six or seven figures for horses at auction aren't in it for the money. They've already made significant money from businesses endeavors outside of racing.

I think a lot of them aren't all that different from many of us here at Paceadvantage. Quite a few of them were horsesplayers who developed strong ties to racing somewhere along the way.

And now that they have significant money... It isn't about the money.

I think it's about stepping up to the plate, taking a shot, having fun, and maybe catching lightning in a bottle.

That said, I wish horses were a LOT more durable.

I would LOVE to see the best of the best stick around and race well into adulthood (instead of being sent to the breeding shed never to race again past the age of three.)



-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 11-09-2020 at 02:20 PM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 03:22 PM   #10
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,452
Need a $5 million bonus added to a horse that wins the Big Cap, Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Pacific Classic out west in the same year.

Need a $3 million bonus added to a horse that wins the Whitney, Woodward, and Jockey Club Gold Cup back east in the same year.

Of course, if they implement it in 2021--judging by what's left-- Midcourt and Mr. Buff might be able to take those bonuses down in their respective regions.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 03:41 PM   #11
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
I think a lot of buyers spending six or seven figures for horses at auction aren't in it for the money. They've already made significant money from businesses endeavors outside of racing.

I think a lot of them aren't all that different from many of us here at Paceadvantage. Quite a few of them were horsesplayers who developed strong ties to racing somewhere along the way.

And now that they have significant money... It isn't about the money.

I think it's about stepping up to the plate, taking a shot, having fun, and maybe catching lightning in a bottle.

-jp

.
I've heard this argument before and understand it.

I own a small piece of a couple of horses now. I went into it expecting to lose a few dollars, but I considered the fun of it "with a kicker" to be worth it for me at this stage of my life. I'm one notch above the guy that knows lotto is a losing proposition but plays big days anyway.

I have a way tougher time understanding throwing around millions, 10s of millions, and maybe even 100s of millions over time no matter how much you have. I guess if you are an oil sheik nothing matters, but I'd be willing to bet a lot these guys have lost a substantial chunk of their net worth on horse racing lotto tickets by vastly overpaying and imo it's not helping the racing aspect of the game.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-09-2020 at 03:44 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 08:12 PM   #12
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 942
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I still don't fully understand the economics of this sport.

I understand how some lucky owners can make more money breeding than racing and how the opposite is often true with mares, which is why they keep running (Monomoy Girl may be back).

However, most owners are losing their shirt.

Yet they keep paying these huge prices for yearlings, which of course supports the prices for stallions, which in turn supports the incentive for retiring them early.

It seems like we have what amounts to being a bunch of economic lunatics buying million dollar lottery tickets hoping for a huge score but losing their shirts on a net basis.

I don't buy lottery tickets, but you can sort of get why an average guy might buy a few dollars worth hoping to change his life.

Why are they vastly overpaying for yearlings and throwing their money away?

The math should tell you what price range is reasonable for yearlings overall based on their potential earnings power and residual value (usually none but sometimes a major score). Then you get into specifics later. If you want to pay a small premium for the fun and are willing to get little or no return on your investment I get that. But some of these guys are incinerating large sums of money on what amounts to being lottery tickets that are damaging the sport.

What the true percentages are one can only guess but at least some of it is a way to launder large sums of money. Just like so many of these businesses that are somehow still going strong with nobody in the parking lot every year. I have firsthand knowledge of some of this, that's as far as I'll go with it.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2020, 11:30 PM   #13
devilsbag
Prefer to be called Dinny
 
devilsbag's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 220
Adding a guess here, but I think insurance premiums must be a big part of the equation. Considering the potential long-term value of a successful stallion (or even the initial few years before we know how his foals will do), it seems like you need to insure for a really high number to protect yourself. Someone feel free to correct me, but I would think you start the year in the hole and have to race your way out of it.
devilsbag is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2020, 05:02 AM   #14
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
This sort of thing makes it so hard for the sport to bring in new fans.
Makes it hard to hold on to your old ones, too.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2020, 09:00 AM   #15
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,218
I don't know why he couldn't finish his career with the Pegasus at GP in January. The purse ain't what it used to be but $3M is not chump change.

This makes me suspicious that he's not 100% healthwise.
Redboard is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.