Disgruntled beyond repair

[Robert Fischer]

brilliant horseman

understand the conditions

money to purchase good deals and stay out of bad ones!

money to pay for medications

mastery of doping, and the drug detection system


these guys are "the best"

[takeout]

Originally Posted by jotb

Sounds like you are talking about SHES APPEALING.

Yep, that’s the one. I can see being leery of claiming it the first couple of times at 4000 because of the drop after winning at the higher classes. What blew my mind were the next 5 wins, all at 6000, before anyone took it.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Light

My theory on this is that(in some cases) the new trainer is not familiar with the details of what turns the horse on. We've all seen how horses run for certain jockeys in the pp's. Or they like a certain track or surface. Then they regress without them. Same with trainers. Trainer reclaims when the horse has won or done well with the reclaiming trainer can certainly turn a horse around 180 degrees. Of course guys like Valento will never see it that way. Everything is the result of drugs or cheating.

Heard an interesting twist on this today from Chris McCarren while watching TVG. He said before race 6 at Dmr that Solis had his choice of riding one of 3 horses in that race and asked Solis why he chose the horse he was on and Solis told him,he felt this was the horse with the best future. But Solis also said that one of the choices he left that Gomez was on(who turned out to be the 2nd choice),had an idiocyncrasy and you had to know about it in order to get the most out of the horse. Just then Gomez walks into the locker room where they were talking and Solis tells McCarron to be quite so Gomez wont catch on. The favorite won. Solis's horse(who was my pick)ran 2nd at 5-1 and Gomez's horse was off the board at 5-2. Next time the Gomez horse runs,if Solis is back, his price and his race will be much better. It may win after being off the board . But again,to someone who cant see the dynamics it'll have to be be drugs,drugs,and more drugs. This is what I mean about those who cant understand form reversals and use scapegoats to explain them.

You've explained why some or even most horses might not win. With some trainers, the horses that leave their barns almost NEVER win.

Now, that's not because the jockey can't figure out a single horse's idiosyncracies.

[Cangamble]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

brilliant horseman

understand the conditions

money to purchase good deals and stay out of bad ones!

money to pay for medications

mastery of doping, and the drug detection system


these guys are "the best"

I don't buy the brilliant horseman argument. Many of these so called brilliant horsemen have had ups and downs with respect to their winning percentages.
And many trainers with high percentages have a history of positives.

You mean temporarily brilliant because they found something that is temporarily not tested for or something that legal drugs can mask.

[ranchwest]

Clarification: When I say almost never win, I'm referring to the first or second start in the new barn.

Show me a horse with conditions that left the barn of Jeff Runco and won.

[Niko]

Originally Posted by Light

So lets see what happened tonight at CBY.TB's start in R4

4) $2.80W Tr 32%
5) $3.20W Tr 11%
6) $5.00W Tr 13%
7) $6.40W Tr 13%
8) $47.60 Tr 9%
9) $6.20 Tr 14%
10) $8.60 Tr 14%

So where's the heavyweights? They were supposed to be out in full force tonight Niko? One substantial win percentage trainer and the rest are average. I dont see any 50% trainers here. Valento,this is why I dont play Cby. Mostly chalk. I think this is more the reason for your disgruntlement.

Nothing to talk about last night. Of my 2 longshots, one was a recent claim by Justin Evans who looked terrible and was a non bet and the other didn't run a lick. Ended up betting chalk most of the night and figuring how to try to win some money in exactas. I did have a losing night but it was fun night with friends and I bet every race--even the quarter horse races.

I do hate the late simulcast money which is about 1/2 the money coming in at the end. I bet the one in the 4th. After seeing the condition of the 2 I made a decent bet at even money and the horse ended up at 4-5 when the race went off. Ends up at 2-5 after the simulcast money comes in about 1/2 way through the race. In the 9th I placed a good bet on the 6 at 9-2 who was off at 4-1. Simulcast money comes in and he's 2-1 after the race starts. I don't know how people can tolerate this? But with the small pools maybe there's not much that can be done about it.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Clarification: When I say almost never win, I'm referring to the first or second start in the new barn.

Show me a horse with conditions that left the barn of Jeff Runco and won.

Sorry, I forgot one more stipulation. This is for horses that have run another race, such as a race beyond the win, with no stipulation on finish position.

If you find one that won, you've found more than I have.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Niko

Nothing to talk about last night. Of my 2 longshots, one was a recent claim by Justin Evans who looked terrible and was a non bet and the other didn't run a lick. Ended up betting chalk most of the night and figuring how to try to win some money in exactas. I did have a losing night but it was fun night with friends and I bet every race--even the quarter horse races.

I do hate the late simulcast money which is about 1/2 the money coming in at the end. I bet the one in the 4th. After seeing the condition of the 2 I made a decent bet at even money and the horse ended up at 4-5 when the race went off. Ends up at 2-5 after the simulcast money comes in about 1/2 way through the race. In the 9th I placed a good bet on the 6 at 9-2 who was off at 4-1. Simulcast money comes in and he's 2-1 after the race starts. I don't know how people can tolerate this? But with the small pools maybe there's not much that can be done about it.

I don't think its simulcast money. I pretty sure it is on track owner money.

[foodog8]

You may be right, but if so the on-track owners are taking a beating. Dinner Magic was bet down last night on the final click to 7/5 and finished out of the money. Another example is Dr Cho from last Saturday who was bet down to 2/5 and ran up the track for SEJ stables. If you are correct, SEJ lost a couple grand on that race alone.

I think it is the simulcast money. The same thing happens at all tracks with relatively small pools are 50% or more off track. The worst offender in my opinion is Prairie Meadows.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Cangamble

I don't buy the brilliant horseman argument. Many of these so called brilliant horsemen have had ups and downs with respect to their winning percentages.
And many trainers with high percentages have a history of positives.

You mean temporarily brilliant because they found something that is temporarily not tested for or something that legal drugs can mask.

well, let me use the Barry Bonds analogy...
Bonds was one of the smartest, most talented and a son of a ballplayer.
The 20kilos of muscle that he added were an important part of his whole system to becoming a "superplayer".

the analogy is limited, and horseman may not be the perfect word here, but the so called supertrainers with amazing% have their owner/trainer/vet/etc.. system going at full throttle, and they are getting these pumped up/ pain free horses into opportunities where they can be succesful.

[jlhill]

My home track has exactly the same problem or at least did. I don't play there any more because of it and haven't watched this year. The same 4 trainers win everything. They claim horses and move them up 30 points. Horses get claimed off of them and they drop 30 points, and never win again. The public realizes this and drives them to even money or less. They run so many horses it makes the races unplayable. They have Ruined it for everyone and I expect Lone Star to be in horrible financial shape in the near future because of it. Its their own fault to let these guys keep doing what they are doing.

[SeattleSlew@BP]

Where's the stone cold evidence on McGwire, Bonds, Sosa?

Stats were becoming so comical that even the biggest baseball apologist had to admit something was going on.

Horse racing trainer numbers are becoming equally absurd. Wayne Catalano is hitting 49%. 49%!!! How can you even begin to defend this?

Although this thread calling some of these guys "brilliant" instead of what they are, common criminals, shows me that the average baseball fan's naivety back in the late 90's has got nothing on our sport.

[GlenninOhio]

Originally Posted by SeattleSlew@BP

Where's the stone cold evidence on McGwire, Bonds, Sosa?

Stats were becoming so comical that even the biggest baseball apologist had to admit something was going on.

Horse racing trainer numbers are becoming equally absurd. Wayne Catalano is hitting 49%. 49%!!! How can you even begin to defend this?

Although this thread calling some of these guys "brilliant" instead of what they are, common criminals, shows me that the average baseball fan's naivety back in the late 90's has got nothing on our sport.

Paging through the Arlington claims register through 7/13, Catalano has had about 20 horses claimed from him since the beginning of the meet, most if not all owned by Calabrese.

This is clear evidence that Calabrese/Catalano will not hesistate to lose a horse in favor of winning in an easy spot. Very few owner/trainer combinations are willing to lose horses at this high a rate in the interests of winning (Moss comes to mind with Amoss and her other trainers).

In any rush to speculate that Catalano is doing something with drugs that other trainers are not doing, one must consider he is already doing something very different on spotting his horses (he is fully prepared to lose them in the interests of winning).

[Cangamble]

Originally Posted by GlenninOhio

Paging through the Arlington claims register through 7/13, Catalano has had about 20 horses claimed from him since the beginning of the meet, most if not all owned by Calabrese.

This is clear evidence that Calabrese/Catalano will not hesistate to lose a horse in favor of winning in an easy spot. Very few owner/trainer combinations are willing to lose horses at this high a rate in the interests of winning (Moss comes to mind with Amoss and her other trainers).

In any rush to speculate that Catalano is doing something with drugs that other trainers are not doing, one must consider he is already doing something very different on spotting his horses (he is fully prepared to lose them in the interests of winning).

How do they do once they are lost? That is the question. I realize they lose a condition, but my guess is that their Beyer numbers drop in most instances.
Maybe someone can show some data on this.

[Rook]

Originally Posted by Light

One thing I know about Cby is that they have a $1 pick six. I know Andy Beyer is a pk6 fan and targets that track specifically because of their $1 pick six. So far I dont know of any complaints he's wrote about Cby.His tickets are hefty too,so if anyone is going to open his mouth when they see something crooked,he will not hesitate.

Recent CBY Pick 6 Pool Sizes:
Jly 11: $1235
Jly 12: $4794
Jly 13: $3352
Jly 17: $7434

I can see why Andy Beyer targets the CBY Pick 6. It's worth making hefty bets for such potentially life changing scores. Thanks for sharing your inside knowledge.