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Old 11-02-2020, 08:04 PM   #31
classhandicapper
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Spalding,

That was a depressing post.

I pretty much agree with every word, but I had deluded myself into getting excited about a few of the races.
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:22 PM   #32
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Given the pathetic horses coming from California this year I found it hard to believe the talent was better than average compared to the historic norm but again been busy so did not follow the past 6 months that close.
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Old 11-06-2020, 12:18 AM   #33
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So many people on my Twitter timeline hate Princess Noor and are planning to key against her, if she goes off the favorite I may ask for a recount.
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Old 11-06-2020, 08:43 AM   #34
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So many people on my Twitter timeline hate Princess Noor and are planning to key against her, if she goes off the favorite I may ask for a recount.
its a short field but its hard to see her being an overwhelming favorite.
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Old 11-06-2020, 09:40 AM   #35
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its a short field but its hard to see her being an overwhelming favorite.

She smoked Spielberg in their last workout.

If she gets beat it won't be because of slow speed figures. The horse has plenty in her tank.
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Old 11-06-2020, 10:21 AM   #36
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Bodenheimer
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Old 11-06-2020, 10:22 AM   #37
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She smoked Spielberg in their last workout.

If she gets beat it won't be because of slow speed figures. The horse has plenty in her tank.
Actually, if she loses it will be exactly because she is too slow. That's actually how horse racing works. Faster horses beat slower horses.

It's not that complicated.
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Old 11-06-2020, 10:27 AM   #38
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I heard Jay Privman on Byk a few weeks ago and he was all-in on Princess Noor. The last race was more of a public workout as it came so close after the first two. It sounded convincing to me. I hit the KD triple thanks to Privman. I threw in that show horse on his rec.
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Old 11-06-2020, 11:04 AM   #39
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Actually, if she loses it will be exactly because she is too slow. That's actually how horse racing works. Faster horses beat slower horses.

It's not that complicated.
And when the horses with slow speed figures beat their counterparts with faster figures what does that mean? They aren't slow anymore?
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Old 11-06-2020, 11:08 AM   #40
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I heard Jay Privman on Byk a few weeks ago and he was all-in on Princess Noor. The last race was more of a public workout as it came so close after the first two. It sounded convincing to me. I hit the KD triple thanks to Privman. I threw in that show horse on his rec.
All three were paid workouts.
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Old 11-06-2020, 12:14 PM   #41
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Actually, if she loses it will be exactly because she is too slow. That's actually how horse racing works. Faster horses beat slower horses.

It's not that complicated.
Everyone knows that faster horses beat slower horses.

The debates are usually centered around the accuracy of the speed figures and how much all aspects of the trip impacted each horse's figures. There are often very significant differences among the top figure makers and handicappers.

With this horse in particular, everyone knows and agrees her races have been slow. So that's not the issue.

What they don't know is what will happen if she's pressed.
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Old 11-06-2020, 12:24 PM   #42
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And when the horses with slow speed figures beat their counterparts with faster figures what does that mean? They aren't slow anymore?
To people that with good visual skills and/or knowledge of their works in company it means when the horse was asked for more it had the reserves to deliver more. To people that think the number tells you exactly how fast that horse was capable of running it means the horse must have improved.

Like I said, the important point is that most horses that win easily do so because of weak fields and perfect trips. That's why they don't run faster next time against tougher. But there IS a subset that is better than they look and CAN run faster. Identifying which type of horse you are dealing with and how much faster before they are tested is the very tricky part. But both categories DEFINITELY exist and sometimes horses do simply improve or decline.
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Old 11-06-2020, 01:15 PM   #43
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Joy's Rocket adds weight to the strength of the Frizette and at least the possibility that inside was not the best part of the track that day.
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Old 11-06-2020, 03:56 PM   #44
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She smoked Spielberg in their last workout.

If she gets beat it won't be because of slow speed figures. The horse has plenty in her tank.
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I didn't read too much into 'company' of the Princess Noor work. Looked like a structured/contrived work where the partner was out to set a soft target.

Once in while Baffert will let two compete in company (e.g. Thousand Words and Cezanne prior to the Shared Belief S.), but his M.O. for prepping stars into Stakes is solo or with a a 'sparring partner'.

i'm betting Princess Noor , but she didn't 'smoke' anything.

Spielberg was a sparring partner in a contrived work. They were in no semblance of a competition.
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Old 11-06-2020, 04:00 PM   #45
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I wish i was smoking something. I feel like crap.

shut out on an $80 dime super early
Up $30

have a few live multi races where if I lose, I won $1 for the day...

have a $200 bonus coming up and probably Princess Noor to Show, even though she should win, if she gets any position and pace.

She's clearly physically strong and has baffert-level stamina. Although the works were contrived, you can still see she's a very nice horse. She also got hammered on the board every race. She's legit. and this is a weak field.
Ravishing is 'ok'
the butch reid horse Vesquist or whatever is ok but has lousy footwork.
The Crazy Beautfiful is mildly interesting 3rd or 4th ... Girl Daddy is a notch below the contenders...
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