Santa Anita Derby

[jay68802]

Looks like a good race. http://www.horseracingnation.com/new...for_battle_123

[jay68802]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcbLoPNIU5g

[BettinBilly]

Thanks, Jay. I was going to start looking at this coming weekend's races starting tomorrow (Wednesday), but you gave me a head start.

Yes, looks good.

[jay68802]

Of all the preps so far, this is the one that should be given some attention. Forbidden Kingdom's last race is very impressive. Was it just one of those races that he put it "all together" with the help of a weak field? Has been beaten by one in here, so there's that. Or just tremendously improved, and could very well be that good......Think those are the question's that need answered.

[jay68802]

Forbidden Kingdoms last race was faster than the filly's route that day. And just as fast early as allowance sprint and a stakes sprint. One of three horses this year to run a prep race with a 120+ Timeform figure.


Betting wise this is a really bad race. If Forbidden Kingdom is that improved, a likely winner at 6/5 or lower. The other horse that will take money is well known, and will probably be 8/5. Only bets to consider would be maybe a double, but the horse that wins before this race is going to have to be 12/1 or higher. Or taking a swing against these two with the rest of the field, and get a non-favorite home in the next race. The last would be hard to recommend.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Betting wise this is a really bad race. If Forbidden Kingdom is that improved, a likely winner at 6/5 or lower. The other horse that will take money is well known, and will probably be 8/5. Only bets to consider would be maybe a double, but the horse that wins before this race is going to have to be 12/1 or higher. Or taking a swing against these two with the rest of the field, and get a non-favorite home in the next race. The last would be hard to recommend.

Both favorites missed works since their last starts, both taking roughly 3 weeks to reappear on the worktab.

Messier was conspicuously absent from starting in either the San Felipe or the Rebel since the Robert Lewis. Forbidden Kingdom was sick a couple of weeks ago.

They should have left Doppelganger in CA for this race as a backup in case there's a meltdown. My guess is they are going to use Armagnac again to try and soften up Forbidden Kingdom (although that didn't work very well last time). Messier has not shown he can settle and win when routing.

Win the Day might rate an upset chance in here if he goes.

[jay68802]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Both favorites missed works since their last starts, both taking roughly 3 weeks to reappear on the worktab.

Messier was conspicuously absent from starting in either the San Felipe or the Rebel since the Robert Lewis. Forbidden Kingdom was sick a couple of weeks ago.

They should have left Doppelganger in CA for this race as a backup in case there's a meltdown. My guess is they are going to use Armagnac again to try and soften up Forbidden Kingdom (although that didn't work very well last time). Messier has not shown he can settle and win when routing.

Win the Day might rate an upset chance in here if he goes.

I think Messier missing work bothers me more than FK missing.

[classhandicapper]

With Forbidden Kingdom in the race, we’ll find out what kind of horse Messier really is. Last time I think the track helped Messier. This time if he gets a neutral track and has to actually work chasing a very fast horse, he’s going to have to be the real deal.

[f2tornado]

Hard to play this race with what looks to be an underwhelming number of starters. The chalks will be exacta boxed to death and quite possibly a losing endeavor. There might be minor value in a trifecta, especially if one has designs on a horse that could edge out a chalk for the place pool. I'm leaning toward Messier on top. The horse was about a second faster than Kingdom last out at the distance while running the final half panel a half second faster. Hard to know how hard either of these were truly running at the end, blowing out the limited competition, but both did have some urging in the stretch. Messier beat Kingdom once then got tagged by Slow Down Andy. I don't think Andy is that great of a Derby prospect which makes me wonder how good this horse is. Was the last out a one-timer or is the horse an elite member of the crop? A dinky arse field won't really give a solid impression of whatever results at the wire unless, perhaps, if the time is blazing.

[f2tornado]

Happy Jack
Armagnac
Forbidden Kingdom
Messier
Win The Day
Taiba

The presence of Taiba at least adds a little unknown element to the race. His lone maiden voyage was quite impressive, but it's a big jump from that company at six panels to G1 at nine panels. Mike Smith does have a knack of doing well in stakes over there.

I might do a / trifecta and call it good.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The presence of Taiba at least adds a little unknown element to the race. His lone maiden voyage was quite impressive, but it's a big jump from that company at six panels to G1 at nine panels.

Previous trainer Baffert has done this move twice before in the Santa Anita Derby.

Paynter won a 5.5f maiden special weight in his debut and was a modest 4th in the SA Derby behind I'll Have Another in 2012.

He tried it again last year with Defunded, who broke his maiden going 6f (his second lifetime start and first in several months). He was also a modest 4th behind Rock Your World.

[jay68802]

Happy Jack Blinkers back on. They are trying to get this horse to finish like he did in the first. Settle, and pounce. Does have close to the right pace #. Projecting this horse to improve the late pace against this speed is asking quite a lot. Bottom of the super wager for sure. Think you need 75/1 on this horse.

Armagnac. Good news is that the horse left Baffert. The owners want to run in the Derby. They think a lot of this horse. Best race needs to improve a bunch to compete here. Anywhere from 20 to 50/1.......With as much improvement needed, probably closer to 50/1

[jay68802]

Win the day. Looks a awful lot like the . Just broke his Maiden....Did win when put on dirt. Another bomb price, same as the , 50/1.


Taiba. Another one out of the Baffert Barn. 1 race judgement. Could be very talented. Pace #'s are right, say stretching out is a good idea. Another one that just broke its Maiden. Just off that 1 race, 9/1 seems fair.

[jay68802]

Forbidden Kingdom. The last race #'s remind me of Justify. 2 time G-2 winner. Simply hard to ignore. 1/1.


Messier. 2 time G-3 winner. 1/1.


Absolutely no value in this race, unless you get over 9/1 on Taiba. But even with this horse in 2nd, will be a $5.00 exacta at the most. The value in the exacta might be found in the . Might get 20/1 or more here. The and will be very heavily bet in the Pick em's in this race. May be key the here on small Pick em tickets. Watch the double pool here.