Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Back in February we were discussing Baffert's prospects for the Derby and I said he may not have even unveiled his best horse 3yo yet. This horse didn't debut until March 5th. It's hard to believe you can debut a horse on March 5th, win the SA Derby, and have one of the favorites for the KY.
I wasn't much of a fan of either of the 2 favorites and wanted to bet against both, but I couldn't make this play.
|
yea. I wrongly assumed that Messier was going to be helped by trip tactics from the other two Baffert runners. That was the tiebreaker for me.
Messier had that one big fig, and it got hype and got people talking about 'juicing'. I'm fairly sure the figs were well-done and I do not contend them, but it looked to me like he pretty much ran his race that day.
The whole 'juice' stuff is so crazy that it's better to ignore the conversation. The common talk is absurd and badly misinformed. The truth isn't appropriate even for a message board. If I talk to an inner group that wants my input (none do), I could share some things for the sake of their own insight/entertainment, but it's a dark picture and it's not a lone wolf scenario.
Back to Messier, he was not a horse who has ever tickled my ever fading and desensitized fancy (or my radar on unusually heavy PED use).
Baffert has actually toned things down quite a bit in about the last year, year-and-a-half. There's maybe been a female racehorse or two, in a 'darling' billing situation where my peach fuzz tingled, but in spite of holding great stats and probably mostly great analytics, he has toned it down quite a bit and isn't even a top 5 (probably not even top 10 offender, currently).
Was wrong about the tactics, and Taiba was actually ridden more patiently than Messier.
Taiba has flashed some brilliance (on Maiden and in works, I wouldn't call yesterday any brilliance, but the stretch run grew on me a little watching it before bed. I'll have to watch it sober again when I do prep postmortems.). I haven't had a good read on the scope/size of Taiba, but he showed yesterday that with a good trip, distance is not an issue.
Slow Down Andy seems like a notch below the other top contenders, so this makes Taiba the top West Coast Contender.
I wish I had known they were fine with Messier losing an easy setup yesterday. Terrible for me in terms of passing a race (and multis) completely in spite of having decent partial understanding and ability to toss Forbidden Kingdom.
4/1 or whatever he paid was also a terrible price. I suppose it was fine with perfect information of the intent. But in the idea of "Taiba will make first run and finish off Forbidden Kingdom, and then Messier will probably win easily, but Taiba will be win otherwise" 4/1 sucked. The field sucked with 3 bafferts.
Some players probably actually bet on whoever they thought would 'win'. Without giving a second thought to tactics. Yesterday was their day, if they realized that Taiba had talent, and that Messier's one big fig was an exaggeration of his true talent. I was burdened by the possibility of tactics.
If Messier was an O'Neill and Forbidden Kingdom a Mandella, and Taiba a Baffert, Taiba would have been 5/2 or less - but at least you decide to bet based upon which horse will best the others.
Too many stakes races, and turf races, and some regular races have trios and duos and/or both from two barns where you have to understand the tactics/intent, and the pace scenario and finishing position has the possibility of being influenced.
I don't want to see Cox have a race won, and then the jock is cruising and chirping, while the second-fittest horse in the race who also happens to be trained by Cox is galloped out past him in the stretch for the Win... I don't want 3 Bafferts in the same major stakes race. Chad Brown is a class act and shouldn't be included in these kind of conversations with supertrainers who win 25% and ITM 55%. It's actually wonderful to see him with three owners participating and bringing up the level of some of these turf races and stakes races, but I'm focused on the Cox's, and Bafferts, and Asmussens, and Pletcher's where the trend is not only handicapping the horses but the intent.
