*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[rsetup]

BEL R5-6

, Hard Study


, Flying Bullet

, Snap Decision

[oughtoh]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

The 6th race-8.5F Turf 77Kn1X features quite a few horses with no turf experience. Not a lot of speed lined up--SPIN CYCLE @ 10-1 looks really good from a pace standpoint EXCEPT---whenever he's pressed into pace figs into the 90's, he folds up like a cheap suit.
He figures to get exactly that today.

The horse I like--that fits on the PLATINUM numbers is CONQUEST SANDMAN 4-1ML. He can press up Spin Cycle all the way then put on the afterburners late. Showing TOP/EARLY and TOP/LATE with a decent ABILITY FIG & highest Bris SR. He's got competition but fits well here.

Main danger in this race is TRICKED UP 3-1... with FLYING BULLET 8-1 showing potential at a price. I think favorite BATTLE MIDWAY isn't very scary in this spot.

So the bet is CONQUEST SANDMAN @ 4-1 to win...with a small - exacta saver in the 6th.

Good luck

-NCG

Nice pick.

[NorCalGreg]

Thanks, Ed....I mentioned I would post up exactly how to play this simple method...and how these "gems" go largely unnoticed. They become very obvious if you have a VIEW others don't.

If you want to download "how I handicap with PLATINUM" ....it's available at my site. You can learn this method in 5 minutes- but may help to have the easy step-by-step instructions there at your comp.

*sorry if it's a little hard to digest at first---just start at #1

http://www.pace-view.com/platinum-fe...-with-platinum

[oughtoh]

Ok the days off I hhave not been looking at. I had him on speed alone, but didn't
on E1 & E2 because I still had the other horse in. If I threw him out for days, which I did, I would have had him as I standout. Thank you. Understand now.

[bruin95]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

I just noticed it's available on 4NJbets wagering menu

I can bet it here in any Vegas Race Book, but the bet itself is only for Aqueduct, Belmont, and Saratoga. It isn't available for other tracks, as far as I know. That's what I meant by "only available at NYRA tracks".

[NorCalGreg]

Results for the "Double Method" for today

BEL
7TH DOWNTOWN AT NOON 3-1
EVD
7TH KING OF HONOUR 3-1 $3.40
8TH DALES LIL SIS 4-1 $13.00
GGF
2ND BRONZINO 4-1
6TH TUSCAN WARRIOR 4-1
HAW
6TH LETHAL 3-1
INDY
2ND CARLOS DANGEROUS 9/2
4TH SAUCY JUBILEE 20-1
CDX
1ST ROCKY TOUGH 6-1
LRL
3RD WEATHERURNOT 3-1
6TH IT'S THE JOURNEY 3-1
PENN
2ND ELL'S ACADIA 3-1 $4.20
6TH I O INES 9/2
SAX
8TH HOLLYWOOD STRIKE 3-1
TAMP
6TH SHE'S A RULER 6-1 $7.40
TUP
7TH KODIAK KWIK 8-1

Hit exactly 25% once again 4 for 16
Bet $32.00 Returned $28.10 -$3.90

Let's finish the week with a big day Sunday

[NorCalGreg]

Prarie Meadows EXOTIC Tip Sheet is up--some nice looking exotic possibilities on it...plus 3 Value Plays.

The CONSENSUS has a bunch of 5 & 6 to 1 horses ranked on top.....That doesn't come with the tip sheet though--sorry.

You can do well with the Platinum software there--don't get me wrong.

Here's my early double and early pick-3 right off the Platinum program:

1st -

2nd -

3rd -

4,7/ 3,6/ 1,3 $2 Double = $8.00 - $1 pick-3 = $8

Any scratches---these are top-2 power...so just go to the 3rd high.

Good luck

-NCG

*BTW ...there is an ABILITY TOP -4 play today @ Belmont --3rd race UNDULATED 10-1

[NorCalGreg]

SUNDAY'S "DOUBLE" METHOD SELECTIONS:

BEL
7TH LITTLE MISS BUSINESS 7-2
BTP
4TH THISONESFORUDAD 12-1
8TH APOCALYPSE 6-1
GPX
3RD ADIOS CHIC 4-1
LSX
2ND O MY O MY 6-1
7TH COUNTERCYCLICAL 7-2
PARX
4TH TRUE TO HIS WORD 7-2
5TH SOARING CID 4-1
6TH FREEMARK 6-1
SAX
5TH ENDURING ERIN 7-2
9TH FORTUNE OF WAR 7-2
TAMP
8TH ORDINARY LOVE 5-1
WOX
2ND JIMMIES TRUCK 8-1


enjoy your Sunday 🥞

[NorCalGreg]

DUE TO OVERWHELMING REQUESTS--AND FOLKS NOT WANTING TO WAIT TIL SOMETIME THIS SUMMER FOR NEW SPEED DEMONS

PONYPICKER IS BACK! THE BEST, WINNINGEST $25.00 SOFTWARE EVER INVENTED IS ONCE AGAIN FOR SALE.

CHECK AROUND THE INTERNET--EBAY--ANYWHERE!

YOU WILL NOT FIND BRAND NEW SOFTWARE ANYTHING LIKE THIS---4 BUILT IN WINNING SPOT-PLAYS--USES $1 BRIS FILES

ASK ANYONE THAT OWNS IT! CHECK IT OUT

http://www.pace-view.com/order-here/...ram-in-history

[NorCalGreg]

Good News.....PonyPicker nailed the early pick-3 @ PRM cold

Bad News.......it paid a whopping $1.00 PICK 3 (6-7-7) Paid: $7.10

[Fred Mertz]

Hi Greg,

I'd like to see your program picks for Churchill Downs, Tuesday, May 2d, Race 6.

I have the PPs and IMO it's tougher than the Derby to handicap. M/L favorite is a tepid 7/2 - Hellofaguy, so you know it's wide open.

PPs here: May 2/race 6 - http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

I'm a minor shareholder of #2 Gray Ransom. Parson might be too.

I'll hold onto my Ben Franklins and might throw down a Jackson. Gray Ransom got tugged in the gate his last start and stopped.

Thanks, Holmes.

p.s. If you want to see EMD's last post let me know. It's a doozy before it was deleted.

Fred

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

Hi Greg,

I'd like to see your program picks for Churchill Downs, Tuesday, May 2d, Race 6.

I have the PPs and IMO it's tougher than the Derby to handicap. M/L favorite is a tepid 7/2 - Hellofaguy, so you know it's wide open.

PPs here: May 2/race 6 - http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

I'm a minor shareholder of #2 Gray Ransom. Parson might be too.

I'll hold onto my Ben Franklins and might throw down a Jackson. Gray Ransom got tugged in the gate his last start and stopped.

Thanks, Holmes.

p.s. If you want to see EMD's last post let me know. It's a doozy before it was deleted.

Fred

No problem Fred...haven't seen the PP's yet but I'll throw up what I got....remind me okay?

good luck

-NCG

(EMD'S's parents booted him out of the basement, I heard. Hard trying to run your comp off your car battery....especially when it's a '98 corolla)

[NorCalGreg]

How to find overlays with EXOTIC BETS

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

SUNDAY'S "DOUBLE" METHOD SELECTIONS:

BEL
7TH LITTLE MISS BUSINESS 7-2 $5.70
BTP
4TH THISONESFORUDAD 12-1
8TH APOCALYPSE 6-1
GPX
3RD ADIOS CHIC 4-1
LSX
2ND O MY O MY 6-1 $6.80
7TH COUNTERCYCLICAL 7-2
PARX
4TH TRUE TO HIS WORD 7-2 $4.00
5TH SOARING CID 4-1
6TH FREEMARK 6-1
SAX
5TH ENDURING ERIN 7-2
9TH FORTUNE OF WAR 7-2 $5.20
TAMP
8TH ORDINARY LOVE 5-1
WOX
2ND JIMMIES TRUCK 8-1


enjoy your Sunday

4 FOR 13 TODAY
BET $26.00 RETURNED $21.70 -$4.30 for the day

[NorCalGreg]

1-week results for DOUBLE method

bets = 56 amount bet = $112 bets won = 17

ROI = $1.08 win = 30% avg mutuel $7.10

Profit = $8.70


Doesn't look bad, does it? Actually it blows. We started off with a huge day---then steadily downhill from there. I've had quite a bit of experience testing spot plays....this looks like 90% of every other spot-play testing.

There are MAYBE 6 stand-alone profitable spot plays that exist in the world of horseracing. I'm just guessing on that number--it may not even be that high. Every spot play imaginable...has been tried, tweaked, adjusted to death. I'm guessing somewhere in this world, here, Asia, or Europe ---some very intelligent individuals have come up, alone or in a group---with situational spot-plays that are bettable and profitable. Here's the thing---they aren't telling anyone and never will.

Is it possible in the world of horse-betting for regular, normal players....to find an auto-profit play? One you can just bet whenever the situation appears (I call it a "situation" because that's what it is)...and that is the essence of handicapping.

I happen to know there is. Amost every single stand-alone spot
play .....no matter how good it looked in the beginning....will B]ALWAYS win appx 25 to 33%...and show a flat bet loss of around .20 to .25 cents on the dollar. Even betting favorites shows the same win%/loss. Bris Prime Power? Nearly the same. My own PLATINUM POWER wins less often---but with a higher avg Mutuel...and total return---betting blindly. But that is only because every bettor in the grandstand has Prime Power--they don't have Platinum Power.

My entire thesis statement is this:

Spot-plays, methods, angles, that come up just short of profitability (and -$1.80 ROI is JUST short)...is begging to be tweaked, adjusted, turned into subsets, reconfigured---to increase Win% and profitability.

That task is where I derive my fun and enjoyment from this game. I have improved methods to close to stand-alone. Maybe an odds requirement--or add that "tightener"...or find the right distance or track where that-$1.80 ROI is suddenly in the black.

I don't mean to make light of this--but that --to me--would be like a scientist finding a cure for an incurable disease.

So----I have the methods and angles---let's find that auto-bet--

-NCG