What happened with Aqueduct??

[NorCalGreg]

Something subtle yet almost drastic has happened with the inner track @ Aqueduct---I have no clue what it is.

Let me explain:

Earlier in the meet--up until this past 2 weeks, really...the AQ inner track was easy pickin's to this speed handicapper. I'd search out horses that can get me right on top to the 2nd call--and simple handicapping served me well after that. I called it the "low hanging fruit"...they were just there for the taking. Mostly lower-paying horses, but dependable- and life was good.

Two weekends back--I gradually noticed a change. The easy pickin's weren't so easy..as the days went on.

Now flash forward to this last weekend---I have a method I use to find the "speed of the speed". It really doesn't matter how--you may have a different method, that's not the point. Speed is speed.

Horses that were dependable--would surely be there--stopped winning. LUNA RISING, NO TEXTING, CLASSY CLASS, BURN CONTROL, CURIOUS CAL, BREEZE BURNER, MISS METEOR.....just to name a few---I would have expected 3 or 4 of those as low-fruit winners.

Something is different now. I haven't followed this track except for the pick-4 contest. I know the weather hasn't changed much---still the same horses and trainers.

Hell, that big $100 longshot winner yesterday--was TOP LATE for his field. He just ran 9 days ago and once again, got his speed-forsaken ass handed to him.

This list you see below is the top 17 "speed of the speed" for Saturday's entire card. Usually a couple winners in the top 5...and more to follow. Believe it or not---not one single winner out of the 17.
My confidence level is way down here--I haven't a clue what next week will bring.

I have theories--any of our group have some veteran knowledge they care to share?

[Frankie D]

The horses didn't matter.

I posted something along this same line two weeks ago when I noticed that MY speed/class system began leaving me at Gulfstream. A totally reliable base system simply departed... or did it?

Studying what was going on I discovered that the NEXT contender started winning. Throw out all system contenders with rating "votes" and the NEXT one was winning. The animal may be the 3rd through 7th rated of the entire race BEHIND the others I tagged systematically, but was winning at a reliable rate. This did not make sense to me. I have taken time off to pursue this further so I can understand - and USE it.

I think what may be happening is tracks, and I have since found it at others including Aqueduct go into and out of order relative to the systematic analysis that I do. I believe the "relative to" part is important and everyone uses something different. So different it can be difficult to explain it to others

Orderly, Chaos 1 (which I think is still playable), Chaos 2 (another level of disorder from Chaos 1), and hell AND high water would be my ratings. Maybe tracks go into and out of these all the time and we just think they are losses.

I am watching it... Spent an hour or so looking at the longshot race and the $122 winner early yesterday, besides being WAY overlooked for its own reasons, fit this phenomenon you describe according to the way I organize power centers among entries. I still have not worked the exact numbers but will. Tracks fluctuate, or horses fluctuate.. or flatulate, or? Looking for the answer myself

NEED A DATABASE! I am thinking about going full Delta Lover mongodb/python soon

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't play Aqueduct in the winter but I will watch the races run when they go off when I am playing and I have just noticed a plethora of midpack to deep closers nearly always getting there and in dramatic fashion. That's all I got from a casual perspective.

[Frankie D]

Sorry, the one I studied was the Gulfstream 2nd with the $25 winner CHERI'S WIN

Was checking for the order/chaos thing

[PaceAdvantage]

I know the weather hasn't changed much

The last two weeks it's gotten much, MUCH colder...plus we've had two snowfalls...

[reckless]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Something subtle yet almost drastic has happened with the inner track @ Aqueduct---I have no clue what it is.

Let me explain:

Earlier in the meet--up until this past 2 weeks, really...the AQ inner track was easy pickin's to this speed handicapper. I'd search out horses that can get me right on top to the 2nd call--and simple handicapping served me well after that. I called it the "low hanging fruit"...they were just there for the taking. Mostly lower-paying horses, but dependable- and life was good.

Two weekends back--I gradually noticed a change. The easy pickin's weren't so easy..as the days went on.

Now flash forward to this last weekend---I have a method I use to find the "speed of the speed". It really doesn't matter how--you may have a different method, that's not the point. Speed is speed.

Horses that were dependable--would surely be there--stopped winning. LUNA RISING, NO TEXTING, CLASSY CLASS, BURN CONTROL, CURIOUS CAL, BREEZE BURNER, MISS METEOR.....just to name a few---I would have expected 3 or 4 of those as low-fruit winners.

Something is different now. I haven't followed this track except for the pick-4 contest. I know the weather hasn't changed much---still the same horses and trainers.

Hell, that big $100 longshot winner yesterday--was TOP LATE for his field. He just ran 9 days ago and once again, got his speed-forsaken ass handed to him.

This list you see below is the top 17 "speed of the speed" for Saturday's entire card. Usually a couple winners in the top 5...and more to follow. Believe it or not---not one single winner out of the 17.
My confidence level is way down here--I haven't a clue what next week will bring.

I have theories--any of our group have some veteran knowledge they care to share?

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The last two weeks it's gotten much, MUCH colder...plus we've had two snowfalls...

I do bet Aqueduct and Parx so I am always gauging the weather during the winter and new year.

Actually, despite the early week snow storm, on this past Saturday, the weather was somewhat warmer, not colder. There was a very slight, misty type rain as well. The air was somewhat 'heavy' as the temperature was in the high 30s low 40s.

A few of the speed of speed horses that NorCal Greg posted earlier, simply didn't 'pace up'. One, Nonna's Boy was stretching out to two turns after sprinting, and there were other early type routers in the race too. The result was the favorite(?) first off A.C. Avila claim running them down late. Basic handicapping could have picked up on this one, for example.

Italian Syndicate and Disco Chick were two that ran on Saturday that simply didn't pace up, imo, so their defeat shouldn't be attributed to a change in 'track bias', a terribly overused and misappropriated term.

Just my thoughts and am not getting beligerent by any means. If one thinks the track 'changed' that day, go over the charts and replays and list the horses you feel were compromised and put them in your stable mail for future reference.

[PaceAdvantage]

I could have sworn it's been freezing the last two weeks. It's been below 20 with regularity at night and it's been struggling to get above freezing during the day, with the exception of a handful of days.

Coming into the last couple of weeks, it's been milder...hell, flowers were starting to come up, then BAM...two weeks of sub freezing temperatures and those spouts are now goners...weather has definitely been much colder the last two weeks.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I could have sworn it's been freezing the last two weeks. It's been below 20 with regularity at night and it's been struggling to get above freezing during the day, with the exception of a handful of days.

Coming into the last couple of weeks, it's been milder...hell, flowers were starting to come up, then BAM...two weeks of sub freezing temperatures and those spouts are now goners...weather has definitely been much colder the last two weeks.

Mike... my Big A cognoscenti told me on sat. that the air and weather was heavy. I felt the same way in beautiful downtown Bensalem so I bought his opinion.

This info, as well as my daffodils peeking thru the snow, led me to this conclusion as well.

While I don't discount what you say, of course, some of those early speed types were pace frauds and lost because of that, and not the weather or track bias, imo.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's all good...I'm not trying to claim that weather is the reason for what NCG might be noticing...just a factor to consider as a possibility since his observation focuses on the last two weeks being different.

[EasyGoer89]

Yesterday was an odd day a bunch of horses dropped off the map for no foreseeable reason, horses who looked sharp on tape and have been 'racing well' we're just mysterious 'no shows'

Sir bond, bullheaded boy to name a couple.

I like the track the way it's been playing, the less predictable the 'bias' is the more horses who have a shot and they can come from anywhere on the track.

[OverlayHunter]

reckless - if you don't consider the information to be proprietary, could you please define and/or provide some examples of what you consider to be "pace fraud". Thank you for the assistance.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by OverlayHunter

reckless - if you don't consider the information to be proprietary, could you please define and/or provide some examples of what you consider to be "pace fraud". Thank you for the assistance.

A pace fraud is a horse that cannot sustain the expected pace of the race. This horse could be the perceived early pace setter, or even a mid pack runner but cannot run well when the expected early pace, or the probable race-shape isn't in sync with the horse's best ability to compete. I personally refer to this as a horse's pace comfort zone.

There were a bunch of these types at Parx on Saturday which got me so excited I was there at 11 am, only to learn they cancelled racing despite it being a 'nice' and warm day.

In Saturday's 1st race at Aqueduct, I decided that Nonna's Boy was a pace fraud -- he ran in four straight sprint races since December and was now going a mile. I didn't think he could finish late fast enough to win. There were 4 horses in the 7-horse race early or close to the early pace so he would have a few around him ready to ponce. That didn't exactly happen as I saw it as Nonna's Boy was able to open a 1-2 length lead down the backside; he ran great and very game but just couldn't get the money at the wire.

In the 3rd race, the pace fraud and overall rat, was Life in Shambles, whom I get big against on Feb. 17 when he was 2-1 against 'cinch' winner Chief Lion. Life in Shambles went off at 5-2 on Saturday and finished a weak fourth in a 5-horse field. He is an example of a horse that likes to lay somewhat close but cannot really finish when the fractions are quick. Both days he faced horses much quicker than he early, so he never really was a factor. I hit the winner, the exacta big and even the tri but I'm not bragging because the small fields equal short mutuels at the Big A. I still took the money.

In the 6th race 4-1 Italian Syndicate was a pace fraud IMO. I didn't think he could warm up Cinderela El Crome and he couldn't, packing it in before they even hit the half-mile pole.

I have no proprietary software or even a high IQ, especially in the league of a CJ, Dave Schwartz and a few others. My handicapping is rather simple, truth be known. What I do is fractional pace analysis, and I use the word 'pace' to mean each fraction, including the final fraction of the race. It was my purchase of the Sartin program Phase III in the early 1990s that got me to view a race as not one single race but one of numerous fractions or increments. Later I used what I learned then and added to this by 'matching up' the horses and their running styles against each other.

I always look at the possible pacesetters first, see what fractions they run best, and decide who could keep up and who cannot keep up. Those that can't are pace frauds and are dismissed. Also, a horse that runs well early but cannot finish if the pace is a bit too quick is a pace fraud as well.

So when a filly like Disco Chick has 1's throughout her running lines but faces a horse -- Hot City Chick -- who also has 1's but runs in 45 and so, while Disco Chick runs in 46 or so, then Disco Chick is my 'pace fraud' and a throw out at any odds. (We handicap before the race, obviously, so whatever was on Manny Franco's mind when he took back on Hot City Girl isn't explainable to me.)

I feel that the Satin thinking and even his most strident devotees have been ridiculed somewhat in recent years but you'll never, ever, hear me knock the methodology nor Sartin. It opened my eyes to handicap a race in a unique yet simple manner, despite Doc's attempt to make it more mysterious and complex than it really was. I became a big winner and avoided many potential losers thanks solely to handicapping in this manner. it may not work for others on here, especially with so many excellent handicappers we have, but it works for me.

Good luck Overlay in your handicapping and betting trials. I hope I helped.

[Secondbest]

Great term. Pace Fraud. Mind if I use it?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by reckless

A pace fraud is a horse that cannot sustain the expected pace of the race. This horse could be the perceived early pace setter, or even a mid pack runner but cannot run well when the expected early pace, or the probable race-shape isn't in sync with the horse's best ability to compete. I personally refer to this as a horse's pace comfort zone.

There were a bunch of these types at Parx on Saturday which got me so excited I was there at 11 am, only to learn they cancelled racing despite it being a 'nice' and warm day.

In Saturday's 1st race at Aqueduct, I decided that Nonna's Boy was a pace fraud -- he ran in four straight sprint races since December and was now going a mile. I didn't think he could finish late fast enough to win. There were 4 horses in the 7-horse race early or close to the early pace so he would have a few around him ready to ponce. That didn't exactly happen as I saw it as Nonna's Boy was able to open a 1-2 length lead down the backside; he ran great and very game but just couldn't get the money at the wire.

In the 3rd race, the pace fraud and overall rat, was Life in Shambles, whom I get big against on Feb. 17 when he was 2-1 against 'cinch' winner Chief Lion. Life in Shambles went off at 5-2 on Saturday and finished a weak fourth in a 5-horse field. He is an example of a horse that likes to lay somewhat close but cannot really finish when the fractions are quick. Both days he faced horses much quicker than he early, so he never really was a factor. I hit the winner, the exacta big and even the tri but I'm not bragging because the small fields equal short mutuels at the Big A. I still took the money.

In the 6th race 4-1 Italian Syndicate was a pace fraud IMO. I didn't think he could warm up Cinderela El Crome and he couldn't, packing it in before they even hit the half-mile pole.

I have no proprietary software or even a high IQ, especially in the league of a CJ, Dave Schwartz and a few others. My handicapping is rather simple, truth be known. What I do is fractional pace analysis, and I use the word 'pace' to mean each fraction, including the final fraction of the race. It was my purchase of the Sartin program Phase III in the early 1990s that got me to view a race as not one single race but one of numerous fractions or increments. Later I used what I learned then and added to this by 'matching up' the horses and their running styles against each other.

I always look at the possible pacesetters first, see what fractions they run best, and decide who could keep up and who cannot keep up. Those that can't are pace frauds and are dismissed. Also, a horse that runs well early but cannot finish if the pace is a bit too quick is a pace fraud as well.

So when a filly like Disco Chick has 1's throughout her running lines but faces a horse -- Hot City Chick -- who also has 1's but runs in 45 and so, while Disco Chick runs in 46 or so, then Disco Chick is my 'pace fraud' and a throw out at any odds. (We handicap before the race, obviously, so whatever was on Manny Franco's mind when he took back on Hot City Girl isn't explainable to me.)

I feel that the Satin thinking and even his most strident devotees have been ridiculed somewhat in recent years but you'll never, ever, hear me knock the methodology nor Sartin. It opened my eyes to handicap a race in a unique yet simple manner, despite Doc's attempt to make it more mysterious and complex than it really was. I became a big winner and avoided many potential losers thanks solely to handicapping in this manner. it may not work for others on here, especially with so many excellent handicappers we have, but it works for me.

Good luck Overlay in your handicapping and betting trials. I hope I helped.

Extremely enjoyable and thoughtful Reckless

Great stuff sir/madam

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by reckless

Mike... my Big A cognoscenti told me on sat. that the air and weather was heavy. I felt the same way in beautiful downtown Bensalem so I bought his opinion.

This info, as well as my daffodils peeking thru the snow, led me to this conclusion as well.

While I don't discount what you say, of course, some of those early speed types were pace frauds and lost because of that, and not the weather or track bias, imo.

Yes, as I sat outside Sat, my exact thoughts were, it seems heavy outside (meaning the air).

Sunday it was 47. Warm and nice. With that said, there were some "pace frauds" (love the phrase ) out there.

In addition, I think the gold rail speed biased bullshit track that we saw all winter was removed recently. It made those pace frauds exposed by running on a more fair racetrack.... if they ran on gold rails/speed biased tracks, then they would've run better.

I think both factors had a say in "speeds" not overperforming. Nevertheless, I wish you posted more, great stuff.