Dave Schwartz is an excited guy!

[Dave Schwartz]

Your words of excitement here, reminded me of the old flyers I used to get in the mail way back when from Norris Strauss.

That would certainly be my plan. LOL

[classhandicapper]

I thought I solved it when I realized that every horse and trainer is different and I should just try to stick with horses that appear on the upside instead of the downside or at greater risk of being over the top. But I'd love to hear what you've discovered.

[RaceBookJoe]

I am very interested in what you have to say about form cycle. I have studied it from my early days and it has always been part of my handicapping. I use it as an "angle" or "bonus". Looking forward to comparing what you have found with my stuff. rbj

[ceejay]

Congratulations Dave. So you were able to analytically quantify where you think a horse is on the form cycle?

It must've been a "Eureka" moment for you. I had one of those about a year ago in my professional work. Very emotionally satisfying; financially, too.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't believe that is true. I don't know the exact percentage, but Betfair does pay the industry.

i think you are right, they do pay tracks in other countries than the united states, and they might even pay the united states. if they don't, i would consider paying them a token even if they don't have to, it would make them look pretty legit. but they are nothing more than a bookmaking operation.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Why? Because he believes he has finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!

He just had to scream it from the rooftops!


FORM! FORM! FORM!

i remember years ago when len firedman, a partner in the ragozin sheet was in my room at a racetrack in mass. i had a horse that was running at arlington park. the horse had been off for a year and i won with him first time back. i double jumped him in class, i asked len what do you think of my horse. he said the horse is going to bounce. the horse went off at 12-1 he won by 6 lengths, he was in the winners circle and was bouncing around. i asked len is that what you mean by bounce?

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

...finally unraveled the most difficult issue on the handicapping planet: form cycle!

Dave,

If your unraveling has addressed considerations of wagering value, and of avoiding loss of profitability as the result of overbetting, my hat's off to you!

[markgoldie]

I have looked at form-cycle considerations for years in the hope that such a handicapping angle would produce consistent profits. But frankly, I have never found anything that I could call statistically significant, except in well-known and well-bet circumstances such as second-out lifetime or second and third off of a layoff.

I have learned that when the seasons change, you must be aware of possible radical changes in form both good and bad. I think this has to do with seasonal allergies. And, of course, the old adage that studs tend to race better in warm weather and mares in cooler weather has a generalized merit.

However, the true idea of understanding form cycles (aside from the obvious necessity of parsing the trainer's abilities and tendencies) is in predicting movement in the quality of effort based solely upon the pattern of past quality. And this pattern is informed by the spacing between races.

This is difficult, in part, because of the ongoing dispute of exactly how to measure the quality of a performance itself; and, of course, the many in-race obstacles that prevent getting a "true" picture of the horse's capability (ie. current form). In short, the movement that we think we are seeing in form and quality of performance may just be a circumstance and trip-driven mirage.

All this being said, if you have actually found something of statistical significance, keep it to yourself, Dave. Could be worth its weight in gold.

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

All this being said, if you have actually found something of statistical significance, keep it to yourself, Dave. Could be worth its weight in gold.

That's certainly sound logic, but if not intending to market it, or at least to discuss it further, why mention it here in the first place? We can all be happy just because Dave's happy, but without having more information about the cause of his happiness, how can we even give him a meaningful "Attaboy!" from a knowledgeable handicapping standpoint, other than on the basis of his general well-deserved reputation for quality?

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by Overlay

That's certainly sound logic, but if not intending to market it, or at least to discuss it further, why mention it here in the first place?

Good point. I actually meant market it, because that's what Dave will no doubt do.

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Good point. I actually meant market it, because that's what Dave will no doubt do.

Which harks back to my comment in Post #22.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have looked at form-cycle considerations for years in the hope that such a handicapping angle would produce consistent profits. But frankly, I have never found anything that I could call statistically significant, except in well-known and well-bet circumstances such as second-out lifetime or second and third off of a layoff.

I have two versions - one is very Sheets-like - based upon patterns. I am in the process of making every horse fit into one of several patterns. It has shown me that my numbers for this are better than any others I have ever seen because they are "energy" numbers instead of "speed" numbers.

The second version is a single numerical value that is about 85% as good. The pattern stuff is the best, with the energy number being added to decide ties, etc.

[traveler]

Resurrecting DK-ALL and SLT's in a more modern way?

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

they are "energy" numbers instead of "speed" numbers.

.

Any odds on how long it will be before 46Zil checks in and says,
"Energy distribution?..The penny dropped. You finally saw the light." or words to that effect.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

1. Betfair - is it not illegal from the U.S.?

2. I support race tracks and racing. Playing with Betfair is like playing with a bookie - zero benefit to racing.

Dave,

I don't think anyone should feel too bad about playing with a bookmaker, offshore, exchange, or even a legal internet site that pays the tracks less money than they could make if it was all bet with them.

Part of the reason many tracks are so screwed up is that government, incompetents with political patronage jobs, unions, and others that are part of the industry are so slow to adapt to the real world, the tracks eventually become unprofitable.

That kind of thing eventually threatens the union and patronage jobs and even the government's piece of the pie.

That's the only kind of pressure that will force change.

So maybe it's a really bad thing for the industry, owners, horsemen, jockeys etc.. in the short term, but so was the car for the buggy whip business.

It's time for change.