Public Handicappers

[Bobzilla]

I can't speak to Trotman's concerns about the bad experience his friend had when pressured during a hard call. I'm sorry to hear it as I'd hate to think these guys would allow themselves to be associated with anything unscrupulous. I do know that Michaels is, or was, the director of player development at Nassau OTB and that his daily picks, as well as those of the others listed, were available on the Nassau OTB website. Michaels is also the author of Handicapping Contests Handbook.

What may be of interest to those who understand how difficult it is to demonstrate consistancy in tournament play is that both Conte and Michaels represented themselves well during the most recent contest at Belmont this past June. Michaels, who had won the Keeneland tournament this past December while earning a berth to the NHC, was the Day one leader of the Belmont event and was able to do well enough on Day 2 to finish second, earning himself another trip to LV. Conte didn't have a good Day 1 but outscored all of his competitors on Day 2 to pull himself to a respectable 6th place finish for the two day tourney. Actually there were many media members in the hunt to take down the top prize at Belmont this year. Well known handicapper Dave Gutfreund (The Maven) won the event. Some may remember him as being one of the colour commentators during the few years ESPN2 provided a small amount of coverage for the NHC. Long-time public handicapper for The Star-Ledger and past NHC champion Ron Rippey also was in the mix and finished towards the top. I believe 5th but I could be wrong.

[rusrious]

Many say they WOULDNT pay for picks. But, what if someone was right 85% of the time, how much would YOU pay for the picks then?

[Bobzilla]

Originally Posted by rusrious

Many say they WOULDNT pay for picks. But, what if someone was right 85% of the time, how much would YOU pay for the picks then?

It's hard for me to imagine any professional tout who could produce an 85% hit rate ever wanting to sell his picks. Actually it's difficult for me to accept any handicapper producing that kind of strike rate period. Hypothetically, if this were even possible I wouldn't pay anything for them. Aside from taking satisfaction in doing my own work, I would think that a tout this successful would dramitically lower his own prices to the point where there would be no value at all.

[pandy]

I'll tell you something that many people don't realize. When a handicapper shows a consistent flat bet profit, you will not see anyone mention that on this or any forum because players want to protect the odds. Today the pools are smaller than ever so this is even more critical. Think of yourself, say that you subscribed to a touts service a year ago and you have shown a nice profit. Would you go on this forum and say, "Hey, this guy is great, everyone should sign up!" No, you wouldn't, because with a few hundred more people betting the same picks you would no longer be showing a profit.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by pandy

I'll tell you something that many people don't realize. When a handicapper shows a consistent flat bet profit, you will not see anyone mention that on this or any forum because players want to protect the odds. Today the pools are smaller than ever so this is even more critical. Think of yourself, say that you subscribed to a touts service a year ago and you have shown a nice profit. Would you go on this forum and say, "Hey, this guy is great, everyone should sign up!" No, you wouldn't, because with a few hundred more people betting the same picks you would no longer be showing a profit.

Bob:

Understand what you are saying, but doesn't this hold for the handicapper who gives out the picks as well? For example, if you sell your picks for X dollars, it stands to reason that each satisfied client will certainly bet more than enough to recover his costs for the selections. And since each client will be doing the same, logic dictates that it is impossible for the handicapper to make as much selling the picks as he would betting them himself because the aggregate actions might soon make the picks unprofitable.

So I therefore have an inescapable conundrum when it comes to anybody who claims to sell winning picks. The condrum is: (1) He must be very, very smart in order to beat the game; (2) He is smart enough and values money enough such that he realizes that his picks are worth something to others- that they are marketable; (3) That he goes through the trouble to set up marketing for his picks (wherther he does this himself or pays a third party to do it for him); BUT (4) He is so dumb that he doesn't realize he could make far more money playing his own selections than he possibly can marketing them.

I have a hard time believing that this combination of brilliance and idiocy coexists in the same person.

[thaskalos]

A tiny minority of the touts may show a small profit on their picks...but they find that their race track profits are too unreliable...and so they trade-in this extra profitability, for the "security" that their regular-paying customers provide.

[pandy]

I've never wanted to be a professional gambler who relies solely on betting with no other source of income. I've always wanted to be a professional handicapper who supplements his income with betting. Maybe that's small thinking on my part but when I was young and raising a family the idea of quitting my job to become a full time gambler seemed pretty crazy.

In my opinion, there are very few professional gamblers who don't have another source of income, too much pressure. I know bettors who call themselves pros, but they have other income from real estate investments, inheritance, etc., they do not actually have only one source of income. Some people think that guys like Gary Fotias, Andy Beyer, Len Freidman, for example, are pro bettors, but they all make money from selling handicapping services, and from what I've heard, they are all very good gamblers, too.

Of course, things are changing. Years ago I had a streak of 7 years in a row where my harness Best Bets at the NY tracks show a flat bet profit of 25% on the dollar, to win. The fact that I gave the picks out to the public was inconsequential because the pools were huge. I had one Best Bet pay $71.00 at Yonkers. But now the pools are small, so your point is well taken when you look at the dwindling pools.

[thaskalos]

It's one thing to provide figures - like in the cases of people like Beyer, Fotias, and Ragozin...and another thing to sell your plays.

Figures are "raw tools", and they still have to be interpreted before final selections can be made. Handicappers can buy the same set of figures...and still end up betting on different horses.

A tout selling his final selections for a $10 phone call...can hardly be viewed with credibility, IMO.

[pandy]

I agree with your prior post about touts who show a profit but also want the security, but not with this latest post because Beyer, and the other guys did in fact give up some profitability when they made their numbers available to the masses. So did Freidman/Ragozin, and others. Yet they still bet. Fotias sheets actually point to his key "new pace top" and "cyclical pace top" plays and there's no doubt that his clients are now betting on many of the same horses that he claims are his bread and butter plays.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Figures are "raw tools", and they still have to be interpreted before final selections can be made. Handicappers can buy the same set of figures...and still end up betting on different horses.

.

That bears repeating over and over.

[Trotman]

Bobzilla I don't know if I agree with you or not just because of certain names that we're associated with contests DRF books and all the rest. The fact is he has had a call from each and every one of them almost daily, or at least they say that is who they are.Fred needs no one to pick winners for him as he does quite well, nothing earth shattering but he keeps himself in the black. He uses a software program with Bris files and only started back with the horses a few years ago after his wife died to keep himself busy. I guess what I was trying to say is that here is this gentleman who does not chat on line but bought his software and buys his files online and some how these blood suckers got his number and have disrupted his life this past week that today we called the phone company to have his number changed. The phone company was very good about it and said they would investigate where the calls came from and there would be no fee as is normal to change the number because of the circumstances. This really bothered him and the calls would come mid day late at night and the worst one was at dinner time when a guy claming to be Gasper Moschera after asking for Fred then told him to put his fork down and listen real careful to what he has to say in this gruff voice and when Fred said just leave him alone the guy says he'll be sorry and hangs up. I'm upset about all this I'd like to get a hold of this pimp tipster and ring his f*****g neck.

[atlasaxis]

I hear what you're saying Trotman. In this day and age of info accessability (including phone numbers), I'm sure we all get our share of phone calls (wrong numbers, tele-marketers, etc). I'm to the point just short of changing my number that if I don't recognize the number, it goes to voice mail. Business I use 2 different answering machines. One is I'm in the office but with a client, leave a message and I'll return your call within 5 minutes. The other is I'm out of the office, leave a message and I'll retuirn your call asap. Home and cell just say leave a message and I'll get back to you asap.

At one time I'll admit to calling one of those you listed a few years back (not Noel. I know him personally, he's a stand up guy). I made the mistake of answering once when one of his workers called to get me buy another service and was working it big time. After he finally took a breath I thanked him for his previous services that I purchased but informed him that I had picked up a piece of software and had all of the winners that they had given me (3) plus 2 more double digit monsters they mad missed so I'll no longer have need of your services. Thank you very much and hung up. They did call a few more times over the next few months but voice mail picked it up and I just deleted it. It's been quite a while since I've heard from him. Watch, I'll probably get a call over the weekend

[Trotman]

atlasaxis I can buy that he is a standup guy, then maybe is it possible guys like Noel have no idea it's going on. These pimps that are doing the calling could make it rough for him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Trotman

Bobzilla I don't know if I agree with you or not just because of certain names that we're associated with contests DRF books and all the rest. The fact is he has had a call from each and every one of them almost daily, or at least they say that is who they are.Fred needs no one to pick winners for him as he does quite well, nothing earth shattering but he keeps himself in the black. He uses a software program with Bris files and only started back with the horses a few years ago after his wife died to keep himself busy. I guess what I was trying to say is that here is this gentleman who does not chat on line but bought his software and buys his files online and some how these blood suckers got his number and have disrupted his life this past week that today we called the phone company to have his number changed. The phone company was very good about it and said they would investigate where the calls came from and there would be no fee as is normal to change the number because of the circumstances. This really bothered him and the calls would come mid day late at night and the worst one was at dinner time when a guy claming to be Gasper Moschera after asking for Fred then told him to put his fork down and listen real careful to what he has to say in this gruff voice and when Fred said just leave him alone the guy says he'll be sorry and hangs up. I'm upset about all this I'd like to get a hold of this pimp tipster and ring his f*****g neck.

I find this all a little hard to believe.

[Bobzilla]

Originally Posted by Trotman

Bobzilla I don't know if I agree with you or not just because of certain names that we're associated with contests DRF books and all the rest. .

I feel sorry for your friend if all of this is true. All I was saying before is that it's disappointing to think that any of the people mentioned would be personally involved with calling folks while at home and trying to drum up business in an overly pushy way. I'm on a nocall list which helps quite a bit but it doesn't screen out everyone. I don't even like to answer the phone unless I recognize the number/name. If not I'll get back at my convenience. I thought you may have been asking what other readers knew about these guys so I brought up the consistancy of a few of them in major tournaments in recent years. I agree with you on the topic of phone harassment and I feel bad for your friend.