What is pace speed class handicapping?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Not trainer intent, but "hidden" internal fractions. Higher-class horses can start and stop during a race. Take a first quarter for example. A cheap front runner might be able to run the first eighth in 11.0 and the quarter in 22.2, whereas a higher class animal might run 10.4 and rate to a 22.2 first quarter. When the cheaper horse faces this classier animal, the first eighth discourages him (and often the jockey) from an attempt at the lead and he is ineffective as a presser and fades from the picture altogether. This, despite exactly the same 22.2 first quarter split. Even when the classier animals allow him the lead, their quicker bursts allow them to take him any time they want and once passed, he'll throw up the white flag.

This example is very simplistic and I believe that even smaller splits, such as sixteenths of a mile and even less are fraught with "race within the race" implications.

Because of this, I have harped until I'm blue in the face on this forum that class affects speed. Some believe me, some don't.

I agree with this entire post.

I think you can actually see this in action.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I would normally agree with you Mark...but we are not talking about drastic class rises here.

We are talking about one level class rises and drops...where the "real" difference in the abilities of the horses is almost neglegible.

You mean to tell me that a horse can "destroy" a field of $10,000 claimers...and then - when it finds itself in a $12,500 race in its subsequent start - it "fizzles out" badly, eventhough it has the best "figures"...only to destroy another $10,000 field after that?

And I am supposed to believe that it has nothing to do with trainer intent?

With very small class changes and cheap horses like that I think you are usually talking about variations in form.

[Tom]

Because of this, I have harped until I'm blue in the face on this forum that class affects speed. Some believe me, some don't.

Amen. The classier horse can pour it on for a few strides and discourage the lesser horse.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I would normally agree with you Mark...but we are not talking about drastic class rises here.

We are talking about one level class rises and drops...where the "real" difference in the abilities of the horses is almost neglegible.

You mean to tell me that a horse can "destroy" a field of $10,000 claimers...and then - when it finds itself in a $12,500 race in its subsequent start - it "fizzles out" badly, eventhough it has the best "figures"...only to destroy another $10,000 field after that?

And I am supposed to believe that it has nothing to do with trainer intent?

The scenario you describe may be a bit unusual. I can tell you this, using Brisnet SPD. and RR. (class) ratings, a 1 pt. jump in class rating will result in an average 2-3 point lowering in SPD. among early-speed types, and a 1-1.5 lowering among closing types.

Therefore, I define "class" as the ability to produce a certain SPD. number versus a group of horses who have shown the average ability to produce a given adjusted number over a spread of classes. Determining this precisely is very difficult and as one who has tried, I've come to the conclusion that it's not really necessary. The Brisnet RR rating is close enough to being correct. The reason is that unusual track conditions, pace-speed anomalies, teletimer malfunctions, and/or failure of a number of key horses to perform, all affect the de facto strength of a given event. And so you can't give a precise measurement to that which can't be measured.

However, in this business we are constantly engaged in making multiple assumptions based on averages. Why? Because we are dealing with highly incomplete information. And so we make guesses. Some prove right and some prove wrong. The only consolation is that we don't have to bet our lives on any of them and that to be successful, our average assumptions just have to be better than the aggregate's assumptions.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

The scenario you describe may be a bit unusual. I can tell you this, using Brisnet SPD. and RR. (class) ratings, a 1 pt. jump in class rating will result in an average 2-3 point lowering in SPD. among early-speed types, and a 1-1.5 lowering among closing types.

The variations you describe are to a large extent "pace related". That's why the impact tends to be larger among speed horses. They are part of the pace from the start. The closers are typically only making middle moves into contention. To try to measure that some pace handicappers combine pace figures with speed figures and produce a combined performance rating.

IMO that combination captures of lot of what "class" is.

That is a huge step in the right direction, but it doesn't capture those between call pace issues we have both been describing.

It also doesn't capture the the fact that even horses of similar overall ability have varying levels of natural speed and stamina and can thus be impacted differently by the same exact pace scenario.

Obviously, there are also accuracy issues because you are trying a combine two things that are tough to measure accurately (pace and final time speed) and then you are using a formula to combine them that will also have issues.

That's why IMHO the best way to handicap is to use both numeric and non numeric tools (more traditional class handicapping that looks at field quality) to view a race and appraise performances. In some types of races the numbers work better and in some types of races class handicapping works better. In all cases they can either verify or refute each other and make it easier to spot a true overlay instead of bad information.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The variations you describe are to a large extent "pace related". That's why the impact tends to be larger among speed horses. They are part of the pace from the start. The closers are typically only making middle moves into contention. To try to measure that some pace handicappers combine pace figures with speed figures and produce a combined performance rating.

IMO that combination captures of lot of what "class" is.

That is a huge step in the right direction, but it doesn't capture those between call pace issues we have both been describing.

It also doesn't capture the the fact that even horses of similar overall ability have varying levels of natural speed and stamina and can thus be impacted differently by the same exact pace scenario.

Obviously, there are also accuracy issues because you are trying a combine two things that are tough to measure accurately (pace and final time speed) and then you are using a formula to combine them that will also have issues.

That's why IMHO the best way to handicap is to use both numeric and non numeric tools (more traditional class handicapping that looks at field quality) to view a race and appraise performances. In some types of races the numbers work better and in some types of races class handicapping works better. In all cases they can either verify or refute each other and make it easier to spot a true overlay instead of bad information.

I think we may be saying essentially the same thing. Since between-call speed is largely unidentifiable, the question of when class trumps speed is important to consider. In my view, it is most important in fields with high-early speed profiles and much less so in fields of low-early speed profiles.

This may seem counterintuitive to some who may view grass routes, for example, as a class-driven venue. But I don't think so. In my view, these paceless races tend to become more trip driven than anything else and are in fact, often stolen by cheap speed.

The effects of class are most pronounced in races where there are many early-speed types, and the most reliable throw-out in all of racing (for vertical players) is the outclassed early speed type.

[skate]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

That is the answer I learned and taught others for over 25 years....that is what is yelled from the rafters, impressed in all the Follow Ups, emboldened in his books, substantiated by his lectures, promoted in his videos......Cannot be much more explicit than that.

And not understood


Man oh man, talk about LEFT Field.

Sarten used Pace, got that from Maul, does not mean Saten thought nothing about Class.

you try to be adjectival, but without detail, as always.

[skate]

Most of the answers given, although true, confuse, because they do not aply equally at all tracks,


An example would be a class move up 2 levels at EV or Rem, would be very much NOT the same as a 2 level move at say DM or Sar.

[skate]

Even more so would be class move from Md Sp WTs. to Maidens, some tracks it would be a big move , while at other tracks it would be Nothing.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

I think we may be saying essentially the same thing. Since between-call speed is largely unidentifiable, the question of when class trumps speed is important to consider. In my view, it is most important in fields with high-early speed profiles and much less so in fields of low-early speed profiles.

This may seem counterintuitive to some who may view grass routes, for example, as a class-driven venue. But I don't think so. In my view, these paceless races tend to become more trip driven than anything else and are in fact, often stolen by cheap speed.

The effects of class are most pronounced in races where there are many early-speed types, and the most reliable throw-out in all of racing (for vertical players) is the outclassed early speed type.

I pretty much agree with everything, but in terms of evaluating ability on turf I still tend to look at field quality over final time figures and find that superior turf horses can overcome slow paces just fine with great bursts of late speed (unless of course there is a bias).

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I pretty much agree with everything, but in terms of evaluating ability on turf I still tend to look at field quality over final time figures and find that superior turf horses can overcome slow paces just fine with great bursts of late speed (unless of course there is a bias).

FINAL TIME? the lawn is all about late movers 2nd and 3rd fractions and according to Pizzolla there are no form cycles like the dirt.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I pretty much agree with everything, but in terms of evaluating ability on turf I still tend to look at field quality over final time figures and find that superior turf horses can overcome slow paces just fine with great bursts of late speed (unless of course there is a bias).

I run into this problem all the time because I advise a friend on claiming horses and often there is a great deal of money at stake.

It's almost like a "chicken or egg" problem. There are many reasons why so-called "man-made" classes do not reflect much about the quality of the horses racing in those classes. So just because a horse raced in a certain written class does not automatically prove a certain ability level.

Okay.

So the "class" people will say, it's not how fast you go, but who you beat that's important. But how do you know how good the horse you beat is or might have been?? By the written class in which he was previously entered? We already know that proves nothing in and of itself. Plus, how do we know the current form of the so-called class horse we just beat? Answer: We don't.

And so, we're back to the teletimer and speed figs. In the final analysis, all we know is that better horses tend to run faster than lesser animals. And so, if you are a "classy" horse, somewhere along the line you will have to demonstrate speed, because without speed, I am at a total loss as to how to determine the class of an animal.

With turf-route horses, late bursts are often key. But they are hard to measure on the teletimer. And so, establishing a true class level of these horses is difficult. That's the bad news. The good news is that they are a smallish clan and so they tend to run against each other frequently. This makes selecting the better horses a lot easier.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

I run into this problem all the time because I advise a friend on claiming horses and often there is a great deal of money at stake.

It's almost like a "chicken or egg" problem. There are many reasons why so-called "man-made" classes do not reflect much about the quality of the horses racing in those classes. So just because a horse raced in a certain written class does not automatically prove a certain ability level.

Okay.

So the "class" people will say, it's not how fast you go, but who you beat that's important. But how do you know how good the horse you beat is or might have been?? By the written class in which he was previously entered? We already know that proves nothing in and of itself. Plus, how do we know the current form of the so-called class horse we just beat? Answer: We don't.

And so, we're back to the teletimer and speed figs. In the final analysis, all we know is that better horses tend to run faster than lesser animals. And so, if you are a "classy" horse, somewhere along the line you will have to demonstrate speed, because without speed, I am at a total loss as to how to determine the class of an animal.

With turf-route horses, late bursts are often key. But they are hard to measure on the teletimer. And so, establishing a true class level of these horses is difficult. That's the bad news. The good news is that they are a smallish clan and so they tend to run against each other frequently. This makes selecting the better horses a lot easier.

The answer is those chicken and egg situations is that you often don't know and CAN'T know.

However, more experienced older horses more or less sort themselves out over time. So the man made classifications tend to fairly efficient. You can recognize strong and weak fields relative to average for the class fairly easily by simply looking at the horses in the race. Also, when figure differences are extreme, that is also telling you something because even though small differences may be have accuracy and other issues, large differences rarely will.

In races for lightly raced horses (maidens and limited winners), it's much harder to classify. In races like these I tend to focus more attention on the figures knowing full well that there could be accuracy and other issues. In these instances you can also watch races a little more closely and "see" hints about quality that may not be present in the figures.

There is no perfect solution, but by using all the tools in the toolbox and recognizing the pluses and minuses of each I think you can do a better job than someone that is wed to a single approach or that is closed minded to the value of various approaches.

[shoelessjoe]

Better off reading Taulbot that's where Sartin got a lot of his ideas from

[bisket]

Originally Posted by BIG HIT

If you are saying pace spd equal class.Then how come the man made class structure stake hdcp alw clm win on the drop lower class more often than not reguardless and usually not pace or spd horse not to mention that the fastes pace and spd same class or moveing upclass to new high don't win at same rate as droppers.Explain please i'am open to other opioins.

don you recieved some good answers to your post. i agree with class handy in regards to the better horse having the ability to run in short bursts and then rate. so time wise there isn't much difference between the cheapy and the class horse. this also has alot to do with, among other factors, why i don't like pace figures. riders are mostly trying to get away with the least a horse has to do early in regards to using a horses energy. that coupled with differences in how a track is playing variant wise can effect early pace times. i don't care what any figuremaker says its guesswork in how these aspects affect one another. then you throw in what the horses do between themselves relationship wise during the race. its something that needs to be analyzed by the handicapper himself to really get how these relationships and data play out in each race. the times and data can be misleading a high enough percentage of times to really throw you off, and effect your roi.